ing remote sensing satellite techniques applied to land and sea surface temperatures . Thermal anomalies associated with strong earthquakes have been observed at various levels, from the ground surface up to the top of clouds. At present, the most promising is the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly measured at the top of clouds . The advantage of this method is that it measures all of the infrared radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface and atmosphere within the transparency window of 8 - 12 microns. OLR is currently mapped by the AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) instrument launched into orbit in 2002. AIRS is one of six instruments on board the Aqua satellite, part of NASA’s Earth Observing System.
6. Global Earthquake Prediction. Practical Cases
Let’s demonstrate a few cases of real stress gradually accumulating before major earthquakes (Figure 1 and Figure 2). At some point the stressed area becomes detectable for our prediction systems. In many cases, the epicenter of a forthcoming earthquake is located near the center of the stressed area. However, in some cases, the epicenter is closer to the boundaries of the stressed area. A possible explanation is that the rupture zone represents a better indicator for major earthquakes (rather than the epicenter). The rupture may reach a length of 1300 km for M9 events .
A few recent successful prediction cases are shown in Figures 3-6.
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before major earthquakes. The size of the observed stressed areas roughly corresponds to estimates calculated from Dobrovolsky’s formula. To identify abnormalities and
(a) (b) (c) (d)
Figure 1. Example of prognostic signal analysis for M9.1 Tohoku earthquake 11 Mar 2011: (a) Mar 2010, (b) Aug 2010, (c) Mar 2011, (d) Apr 2011, after the shock. Note that the green stressed area grew larger in March 2011 due to an increased accumulation of stress. The red ellipse indicates the prognostic signal.
make predictions, Terra Seismic applies various methodologies, including satellite remote sensing methods and data from ground-based instruments. We currently
(a) (b) (c) (d)
Figure 2. An example of how multiple earthquakes developed simultaneously in Indonesia in 2018. Area A: preparation of M6.4 quake on 28.07.2018, M6.9 quake on 05.08.2018, M6.3 quake and M6.9 quake on 19.08.2019 in Lombok Region. Area B: preparation of M6.2 quake on 28.08.2018 in the East Timor region. (a) Dec 2017, (b) Jan 2018, (c) Jul 2018, (d) Sep 2018, after the shocks. Note that the cyan stressed areas grew larger due to an increased accumulation of stress. The red ellipse indicates the prognostic signal.
Figure 3. Example of prediction and real quake comparison for 22.10.2018 M6.8 earthquake in Vancouver Island, Canada region. Yellow circle indicates prognostic area and yellow dot shows the location of epicenter.
Figure 4. Example of predicted M7.3 earthquake in Banda Sea, Indonesia. Yellow circle indicates prognostic area and yellow dot shows the location of epicenter.
Figure 5. Example of predicted M6.9 earthquake in Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia. Yellow circle indicates prognostic area and yellow dot shows the location of epicenter.
process terabytes of information daily, and use more than 80 different multiparameter prediction systems. Alerts are issued if the abnormalities are confirmed by at least five different systems. We observed that geophysical patterns of earthquake development and stress accumulation are generally the same for all key seismic regions. Thus, the same earthquake prediction methodologies and systems can be applied successfully worldwide.
Figure 6. Example of predicted M6.4 earthquake in Puerto Rico region. Yellow circle indicates prognostic area and yellow dot shows the location of epicenter.
Stress gradually accumulates before a major earthquake. To measure the different stages of stress accumulation, we have developed long-term (from 2 to 5 years), mid-term (from 2 months to 2 years), and short-term (from 10 to 60 days) global prediction systems. The most reliable are the mid-term systems that can predict most major earthquakes at least 2 - 5 months in advance. In some cases we can determine the final stage of stress build-up. We can also predict the epicenter of a forthcoming earthquake with a high degree of confidence to within a radius of 150 - 250 km. Terra Seismic currently provides earthquake predictions for 25 key earthquake-prone regions. Our technology has been used to retrospectively test data gathered since 1970 and it successfully detected about 90 percent of all significant quakes over the last 50 years. Throughout 2017-2020, Terra Seismic’s work was presented to more than 150 university professors from 63 countries. Our technology has been in practical use since 2013.
Our paramount priority is to help governments save human lives. Terra Seismic calls for collaboration with all governments and agencies responsible for dealing with natural disasters.
This project was not possible without the scientific data provided by different government agencies, international organizations, science institutions and academia. We would like to acknowledge their leading contribution to Earth and space data collection.
We wish thank to US Geological Survey (USGS), European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Space Agency (ESA), International GNSS Service (IGS), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Caltech, Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS), Weather Underground and World Data Center (WDC) in Kyoto, Japan.
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