AJIBM  Vol.9 No.1 , January 2019
How Inflation Affects the Management Earnings Forecasts
Abstract: I use 2005-2017 Shenzhen and Shanghai’s A-share listed company’s quarterly earnings forecasts data as sample to perform multiple regression analysis. I find that when inflation rate rises, not only management’s possibility of making earnings forecasts but also the precision and accuracy of management forecasts declines, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, I also find that when inflation rate rises, the state-owned nature of enterprises will aggravate the decline in the precision and accuracy of listed companies’ earnings forecasts. In the unique context of semi-mandatory disclosure rules in China, if companies voluntarily disclose more performance-related information, it usually means that the managers are more capable, more confident. Therefore, this voluntary behavior can alleviate the decline in the precision and accuracy of the earnings forecast brought by inflation. Finally, I find that the precision and accuracy of the earnings forecasts will further decline for companies with higher debt ratios, indicating that liabilities may be one of the paths of inflation affecting voluntary information disclosure.
Cite this paper: Zou, J. (2019) How Inflation Affects the Management Earnings Forecasts. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 9, 21-48. doi: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.91003.

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