GEP  Vol.5 No.8 , August 2017
Control Mechanisms and Simulation of Populus simonii Leaf Unfolding
Abstract: Populus simonii Carr., one of the main poplar tree species, is cultivated widely in Northeast and Northwest China in protection and timber forests. Plant phenology plays an important role in timber production by controlling the growing period (i.e., the period between the leaf unfolding and the leaf turning yellow). It is important to understand this control mechanism and to improve the accuracy of the simulation of leaf unfolding phenology for P. simonii in order to determine accurately the timber production of P. simonii plantations. In this study, based on phenological observation data from 10 agricultural meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province, China, model simulation was employed to determine the control mechanism of leaf unfolding of P. simonii. Furthermore, the predicting effects of nine phenology-simulating models for P. simonii leaf unfolding were evaluated and the distribution characteristics of P. simonii leaf unfolding in China in 2015 were simulated. The results show that P. simonii leaf unfolding is sensitive to air temperature; consequently, climate warming could advance the P. simonii leaf unfolding process. The phenological model based on air temperature could be better suited for simulating P. simonii leaf unfolding, with 76.7% of the calibration data of absolute error being less than three days. The performance of the models based solely on forcing requirements was found superior to that of the models incorporating chilling. If it was imperative that the chilling threshold is reached, the south of the Yunnan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces would be unsuitable for planting P. simonii. In this regard, the phenology model based on the chilling threshold as necessary condition was indicated a more reasonable model for the distribution characteristics of P. simonii leaf unfolding.
Cite this paper: Li, R. , Wang, T. , Sun, S. , Liu, D. and Zhang, Q. (2017) Control Mechanisms and Simulation of Populus simonii Leaf Unfolding. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 5, 41-55. doi: 10.4236/gep.2017.58005.

[1]   Jia, L.M., Liu, S.Q., Zhu, L.H., Hu, J.J. and Wang, X.P. (2013) Carbon Storage and Density of Poplars in China. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition), 37, 1-7.

[2]   Richardson, A.D., Black, T.A., Ciais, P., Delbart, N., Friedl, M.A., Gobron, N., Hollinger, D.Y., Kutsch, W.L., Longdoz, B., Luyssaert, S., Migliavacca, M., Montagnani, L., Munger, J.W., Moors, E., Piao, S.L., Rebmann, C., Reichstein, M., Saigusa, N., Tomelleri, E., Vargas, R. and Varlagin, A. (2010) Influence of Spring and Autumn Phonological Transitions on Forest Ecosystem Productivity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 365, 3227-3246.

[3]   Chmielewski, F.M., Müller, A. and Bruns, E. (2004) Climate Changes and Trends in Phenology of Fruit Trees and Field Crops in Germany, 1961-2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 121, 69-78.

[4]   Richardson, A.D., Anderson, R.S., Arain, M.A., Barr, A.G., Bohrer, G., Chen, G.S., Chen, J.M., Ciais, P., Davis, K., Desai, A.R., Dietze, M.C., Dragoni, D., Maayar, M.E., Garrity, S, Gough, C.M., Grant, R.G., Hollinger, D.Y., Margolis, H.A., Mccaughey, H., Migliavacca, M., Monson, R., Willian Munger, J., Poulter, B., Raczka, B., Ricciuto, D.M., Sahoo, A., Schaefer, K., Tian, H.Q., Vargas, R., Verbeeck, H., Xiao, J.F. and Xue, Y.K. (2012) Terrestrial Biosphere Models Need Better Representation of Vegetation Phenology: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Global Change Biology, 18, 566-584.

[5]   Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I.C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplans, J.O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K. and Venevsky, S.(2003) Evaluation of Ecosystem Dynamics, Plant Geography and Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Change Biology, 9, 161-185.

[6]   Hakkinen, R., Linkosalo, T. and Hari, P. (1995) Methods for Combining Phonological Time Series: Application to Bud Burst in Birch (Betula pendula) in Central Finland for the Period 1896-1955. Tree Physiology, 15, 721-736.

[7]   Yuan, W.P., Zhou, G.S. and Wang, Y.H. (2007) Simulating Phenological Characteristics of Two Dominant Herb Species in a Semi-Arid Steppe Ecosystem. Ecological Research, 22, 784-791.

[8]   Jolly, W.M., Nemani, R. and Running, S.W. (2005) A Generalized, Bioclimatic Index to Predict Foliar Phenology in Response to Climate. Global Change Biology, 11, 619-632.

[9]   Schwartz, M.D. (1999). Advancing to Full Bloom: Planning Phenological Research for the 21st Century. International Journal of Biometeorology, 42, 113-118.

[10]   Hanninen, H. (1990) Modelling Bud Dormancy Release in Trees from Cool and Temperate Regions. Acta Forestalia Fennica, 213, 1-47.

[11]   Kramer, K. (1994). Selecting a Model to Predict the Onset of Growth of Fagus sylvatica. Journal of Applied Ecology, 31, 172-181.

[12]   Arora, V.K. and Boer, G.J. (2005) A Parameterization of Leaf Phenology for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Component of Climate Models. Global Change Biology, 11, 39-59.

[13]   Cannell, M.G.R. and Smith, R.I. (1983) Thermal Time, Chill Days and Prediction of Budburst in Picea sitchensis. Journal of Applied Ecology, 20, 951-963.

[14]   Qi, R.Y., Yan, J.R. and Wang, Q.L. (2006) Changes of the Phenological Phase of Populus tomentosa and Its Response to Climate Change. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 27, 41-45.

[15]   Cao, Y.F., Wei, Y.R., You, L., Liu, P.T. and Wu, Q.F. (2011) Phenological Change of Populous simonii C. and Its Response to Air Temperature Variation in Last 30 Years in Inner Mongolia. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 32, 538-542.

[16]   Hunter, A.F. and Lechowicz, M.J. (1992) Predicting the Timing of Budburst in Temperate Trees. Journal of Applied Ecology, 29, 597-604.

[17]   Chuine, I., Cambon, G. and Comtois, P. (2000) Scaling Phenology from the Local to the Regional Level: Advances from Species-Specific Phenological Models. Global Change Biology, 6, 943-952.

[18]   Chuine, I., Cour, P. and Rousseau, D.D. (1998) Fitting Models Predicting Dates of Flowering of Temperate-Zone Trees Using Simulated Annealing. Plant Cell & Environment, 21, 455-466.

[19]   Melas, E., Friedl, M.A. and Richardson, A.D. (2016) Multiscale Modeling of Spring Phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States. Global Change Biology, 22, 792-805.

[20]   Posada, D. and Buckley, T.R. (2004) Model Selection and Model Averaging in Phylogenetics: Advantages of Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Approaches over Likelihood Ratio Tests. Systematic Biology, 53, 793-808.

[21]   Yang, L.T. and Hou, Q. (2008) Phenological Changes of Populus simonii and Its Relationship with Meteorological Conditions in the Eastern Inner Mongolia. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 24, 39-44.

[22]   Keenan, T.F., Gray, J., Friedl, M.A., Toomey, M., Bohrer, G., Hollinger, D.Y., Munger, J.W., O’Keefe, J., Schmid, H.P. and Wing, I.S. (2014) Net Carbon Uptake Has Increased through Warming-Induced Changes in Temperate Forest Phenology. Nature Climate Change, 4, 598-604.

[23]   Fang, S.Z. (2008) Silviculture of Poplar Plantation in China: A Review. Chinese Journal of Apply Ecology, 19, 2308-2316.

[24]   Li, R.P. and Zhou, G.S. (2012) A Temperature-Precipitation Based Leafing Model and Its Application in Northeast China. PLoS ONE, 7, e33192.

[25]   Chuine, I. (2000) A Unified Model for Budburst of Trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 207, 337-347.

[26]   Zhao, M.F., Peng, C.H., Xiang, W.H., Deng, X.G., Tian, D.L., Zhou, X.L., Yu, G.R., He, H.L. and Zhao, Z.H. (2013) Plant Phenological Modeling and Its Application in Global Climate Change Research: Overview and Future Challenges. Environment Review, 21, 1-14.

[27]   Chen, X.Q., Wang, L.X. and Inouye, D. (2017) Delayed Response of Spring Phenology to Global Warming in Subtropics and Tropics. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 234-235, 222-235.

[28]   Carter, J.M., Orive, M.E., Gerhart, L.M., Stern, J.H., Marchin, R.M., Nagel, J. and Ward, J.K. (2017) Warmest Extreme Year in U.S. History Alters Thermal Requirements for Tree Phenology. Oecologia, 183, 1197-1210.