GEP  Vol.5 No.7 , July 2017
Impact of the Future Changing Climate on the Southern Africa Biomes, and the Importance of Geology
The Southern African biomes are complex biotic communities, with its distinctive plant and animal species, and are maintained under the suitable climatic conditions of the region. It includes the Fynbos Biome and the Succulent Karoo Biome, which forms the smallest of the world’s six Floristic Kingdoms, and they are of conservation concern. The other six biomes are Albany Thicket, Desert, Grassland, Indian Ocean Coastal belt, Nama-Karoo, Savanna. The biomes are not only threatened by agricultural expansion, overgrazing, and mining; but also by future climate changes and droughts. This study investigates the how to best model the possible vulnerable biome areas, under future climate changes, and how Southern African geology plays a huge role in the restriction of the biome shifts. It provides evidence regarding the importance of the study to understanding the climate change impacts and the geological variables on the Southern African biomes, in terms of possible future biome habitat loss.
Cite this paper: Guo, D. , Desmet, P. and Powrie, L. (2017) Impact of the Future Changing Climate on the Southern Africa Biomes, and the Importance of Geology. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 5, 1-9. doi: 10.4236/gep.2017.57001.

[1]   Chicago Manual Style (2017) Biome.

[2]   Mucina, L. and Rutherford, M.C., Eds. (2006) The Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. South African National Biodiversity Institute, Preto-ria.

[3]   Zietsman, L., Eds. (2011) Observations on Environmental Change in South Africa. Sun Press, Sun Media, Stellen-bosch.

[4]   Guo, D., Arnolds, J.L., Midgley, G.F. and Foden, W.B. (2016) Conservation of Quiver Trees in Namibia and South Africa under a Changing Climate. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 4, 1-8.

[5]   Guo, D., Midgley, G.F., Araya, Y.N., Silvertown, J. and Musil, C.F. (2016) Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Niches of Restionaceae Species in Jonkershoek, South Africa. Journal of Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering, 5, 20-28.

[6]   Powrie, L.W. (2016) Draft Biomes of Southern Africa Using New Information for Modelling Future Biomes for Southern Africa. Unpublished, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town.

[7]   Connolley, W.M. and Bracegirdle, T.J. (2007) An Antarctic Assessment of IPCC AR4 Coupled Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L22505.

[8]   Max-Planck-Institutfür Meteorologie (2015) MPI-ESM

[9]   Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones P.G. and Jarvis, A. (2005) Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.

[10]   Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S.C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C. and Rummukainen, M. (2013) Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M., Eds., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

[11]   Franklin, J. (2009) Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[12]   Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. and Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum Entropy Modeling of Species Geographic Distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.

[13]   Phillips, S.J., Dudík, M. and Schapire, R.E. (2004) A Maximum Entropy Approach to Species Distribution Modeling. Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Machine Learning, Banff, 4-8 July 2004, 655-662.

[14]   Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y.E. and Yates, C.J. (2011) A Statistical Explanation of MaxEnt for Ecologists. Diversity and Distributions, 17, 43-57.

[15]   Guo, R. (2010) Bayesian Reliability Modelling. In: Lovric, M., Ed., International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 104-106.

[16]   Fenner School (2016) ANUCLIM.

[17]   Nix, H. (1986) Abiogeographic Analysis of Aus-tralian Elapid Snakes. In: Longmore, R. Ed., Snakes: Atlas of Elapid Snakes of Australia, Bureau of Flora and Fauna, Canberra, 4-10.

[18]   McLeish, M., Guo, D. van Noort, S. and Midgley, G.F. (2011) Life on the Edge: Rare and Restricted Episodes of a Pan-Tropical Mutualism Adapting to Drier Climates. New Phytologist, 191, 210-222.

[19]   Young, A.J., Guo, D., Desmet, P.G. and Midgley, G.F. (2016) Biodiversity and Climate Change: Risks to Dwarf Succulents in Southern Africa. Journal of Arid Environments, 129, 16-24.