Back
 ENG  Vol.8 No.10 , October 2016
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Al-Adhaim, Iraq Using SWAT Model
Abstract: SWAT model (Sediment and Water Assessment Tool) was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources in Al-Adhaim Basin which is located in north east of Iraq. Al-Adhaim River is the main source of fresh water to Kirkuk City, one of the largest cities of Iraq. Recent studies have shown that blue and green waters of the basin have been manifesting increasing variability contributing to more severe droughts and floods apparently due to climate change. In order to gain greater appreciation of the impacts of climate change on water resources in the study area in near and distant future, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used. The model is first tested for its suitability in capturing the basin characteristics, and then, forecasts from six GCMs with about half-a-century lead time to 2046-2064 and one-century lead time to 2080-2100 are incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources under three emission scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. The results showed worsening water resources regime into the future.
Cite this paper: Abbasa, N. , Wasimia, S. and Al-Ansari, N. (2016) Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Al-Adhaim, Iraq Using SWAT Model. Engineering, 8, 716-732. doi: 10.4236/eng.2016.810065.
References

[1]   Arnell, N.W., Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011) The Implications of Climate Policy for the Impacts of Climate Change on Global Water Resources. Global Environmental Change, 21, 592-603.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.015

[2]   Tong, S.T.Y., Sun, Y., Ranatunga, T., He, J. and Yang, Y.J. (2012) Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios on Water Resources. Applied Geography, 32, 477-489.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.06.014

[3]   Tabari, H. and Willems, P. (2016) Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 52, 541-599.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12403

[4]   Borgomeo, E., Pflug, G., Hall, J.W. and Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2015) Assessing Water Resource System Vulnerability to Unprecedented Hydrological Drought Using Copulas to Characterize Drought Duration and Deficit. Water Resources Research, 51, 8927-8948.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017324

[5]   Mimikou, M.A., Baltas, E., Varanou, E. and Pantazis, K. (2000) Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Quantity and Quality Indicators. Journal of Hydrology, 234, 95-109.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00244-4

[6]   Xuan, Z. and Chang, N.B. (2014) Modeling the Climate-Induced Changes of Lake Ecosystem Structure under the Cascade Impacts of Hurricanes and Droughts. Ecological Modelling, 288, 79-93.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.014

[7]   Winter, J.M. and Eltahir, E.A.B. (2012) Modeling the Hydroclimatology of the Midwestern United States. Part 1: Current Climate. Climate Dynamics, 38, 573-593.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1182-2

[8]   IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[9]   Al-Ansari, N., Ali, A.A. and Knutsson, S. (2014) Present Conditions and Future Challenges of Water Resources Problems in Iraq. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 6, 1066-1098.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2014.612102

[10]   Issa, I.E., Al-Ansari, N., Sherwany, G. and Knutsson, S. (2014) Expected Future of Water Resources within Tigris-Euphrates Rivers Basin, Iraq. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 6, 421-432.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2014.65042

[11]   Abdulla, F. and Al-Badranih, L. (2000) Application of a Rainfall-Runoff Model to Three Catchments in Iraq. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 45, 13-25.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626660009492303

[12]   Al-Kadhimi, A.M., Ahmed, L.A. and Al-Mphergee, R.Y.A. (2011) Runoff Curves Development for Al-Adhaim Catchment Using Digital Simulation Models. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, 5, 229-244.

[13]   Jaradat, A. (2003) Agriculture in Iraq: Resources, Potentials, Constraints, Research Needs and Priorities. Food, Agriculture and Environment, 1, 160-166.

[14]   UN-ESCWA, BGR (2013) United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe. Inventory of Shared Water Resources in Western Asia, Beirut.

[15]   Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S. and Williams, J.R. (1998) Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development1. Wiley Online Library.

[16]   Green, W.H. and Ampt, G. (1911) Studies on Soil Physics, 1. The Flow of Air and Water through Soils. Journal of Agriculture Science, 4, 1-24.

[17]   FAO (1995) The Digital Soil Map of the World and Derived Soil Properties, Version 3.5. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.

[18]   Abbaspour, K.C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J. and Srinivasan, R. (2007) Modelling Hydrology and Water Quality in the Pre-Alpine/Alpine Thur Watershed Using SWAT. Journal of Hydrology, 333, 413-430.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014

[19]   Nash, J. and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970) River flow Forecasting through Conceptual Models Part I—A Discussion of Principles. Journal of hydrology, 10, 282-290.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6

[20]   Moriasi, D., Arnold, J., Van Liew, M., Bingner, R., Harmel, R. and Veith, T. (2007) Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. Soil & Water Division of American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 50, 885-900.

[21]   Maurer, E., Brekke, L., Pruitt, T., Thrasher, B., Long, J., Duffy, P., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D. and Arnold, J. (2014) An Enhanced Archive Facilitating Climate Impacts and Adaptation Analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 1011-1019.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00126.1

[22]   Cibin, R., Sudheer, K.P. and Chaubey, I. (2010) Sensitivity and Identifiability of Stream Flow Generation Parameters of the SWAT Model. Hydrological Processes, 24, 1133-1148.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7568

[23]   Veith, T., Van Liew, M., Bosch, D. and Arnold, J. (2010) Parameter Sensitivity and Uncertainty in SWAT: A Comparison across five USDA-ARS Watersheds. Transactions of the ASABE, 53, 1477-1486.
http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.34906

[24]   Li, Z., Xu, Z., Shao, Q. and Yang, J. (2009) Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT Model in Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Basin. Hydrological Processes, 23, 2744-2753.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7371

[25]   Rijsberman, F.R. (2006) Water Scarcity: Fact or Fiction? Journal of Agricultural Water Management, 80, 5-22.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.001

[26]   Falkenmark, M. (1989) The Massive Water Scarcity Now Threatening Africa: Why Isn’t It Being Addressed? Ambio, 18, 112-118.

 
 
Top