Received 30 June 2016; accepted 31 July 2016; published 3 August 2016
Beijing, Tianjin and China’s developments are getting more and more attention by us. The development of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai cities will directly affect China’s economic development. The main object of this study is Tianjin. Tianjin is a very prosperous region. The content of this paper is the Tianjin’s economic factors, the development of agriculture, logistics and transportation. Tianjin’s future trends provide a reliable basis. Many scholars have made a profound study on the development of Tianjin. Zheng Li, and Dai Ying (2015) , two scholars summed up the basic goals and needs of Tianjin’s economic development and economic construction from the point of view of national planning. Yang Wei, Xu Xuezeng, & Hong Haiyu (2012) valued the employment situation in Tianjin and the Tianjin economic. They thought that the economic development of Tianjin would lead Tianjin to promote employment. Wu Jingkun (2012) considered the development of Tianjin culture and the need to innovate to optimize the flow of commerce personnel work together to make recommendations promote the flow of commerce from the economic foundations. Jiang Xiaochuang (2014) thought that Tianjin has the advantage of the port; Tianjin should make use of port resources and the promotion of port throughput; Tianjin should promote common economic development. Liu Haiyuan and Wu Jinlong (2009) put forward that Tianjin needs the development of logistics; the limiting factor is the shortage of practical talents. Yang Guoliang (2006) proposed that the logistics development of Tianjin needs to adapt to the current national policies. Most scholars analyzed from the factors which affect the development of Tianjin, but they were lack of the data analysis and they did not do in-depth research on the specific situation in Tianjin. Based on the fact, we use a lot of data to analyze it and solve the problem.
2. Tianjin Comprehensive Index Analysis
Principal component analysis method is often used by researchers, principal component analysis can explore a region of the main factors, Therefore, this paper in order to obtain the main factors influence the development of Tianjin, a comprehensive analysis using SPSS software. Firstly, select the total agricultural output value of Tianjin, has a number of enterprises, the number of logistics and transport, light industry and heavy industry to judge and analyze comprehensive index Tianjin. In order to obtain satisfactory results, and data reliability, we took data from 2000 to 2013, the 2014 data also did not give specific numerical data are shown in Table 1.
After factor analysis, correlation coefficient matrix can be drawn, the results as shown in Table 2.
Table 1. Tianjin comprehensive index statistics.
Table 2. Correlation matrix.
From the data in Table 2, we can know the degree of correlation between the five variables are very high, for example, the correlation coefficient contribution of the agricultural economy and heavy industry output value is 0.990, reached a high degree of correlation, therefore, the data analyze the composition of the shots significant variables. Tianjin heavy industry should pay attention to the factors that strengthen the management of heavy industry, optimize the structure and organization of basic industry is the basis for the rational development of Tianjin.
From Table 3, we can know, after analysis software, it can mainly extract a principal component, software principle is selected eigenvalues greater than 1 is our target selected, the data in the first primary eigenvalues component is 4.643, the remaining components of the eigenvalues are less than one, so we selected a main component is the first one. And the first principal component can explain 93% of the original information of all the variables, it is a very reliable and value can be applied to real life.
The data in Table 4 tells us that the main component of the equation can be used to extract the following regression equation:
These data tell us that after data processing and standardized regression coefficients of significant indicators, we can know that how much can be seen that the main component of agriculture can be replaced, because agriculture is the coefficient 0.996, the entire data is a maximum. These results suggest that the development of Tianjin’s economy depends mainly on agriculture, therefore, it is to strengthen the focus of Beijing, Tianjin and the Tianjin development of agriculture and protection.
Table 3. Total variance explained.
Table 4. Composition matrix.
3. Logistics Transportation Equipment
Tianjin logistics transportation equipment is an important factor affecting economic development in Tianjin, logistics equipment determines the transport speed of logistics and products, mainly logistics and transport equipment Tianjin rail, road and water transport, under the leadership of logistics equipment, each year in Tianjin will have a lot cargo, but depending on which freight transport logistics and equipment, it is worth our study. This article taken correlation coefficient and regression methods to examine the data, the data shown in Table 5, the results of the test are shown in Table 6 and Table 7.
From the correlation coefficient, we can see that the correlation coefficient and cargo railway is 0.9, which is rendered highly correlated and road freight is 0.765, which is showing a moderate correlation, cargo and water transport the correlation coefficient is 0.838, which showed a high correlation, indicating that the main use of the logistics of Tianjin railway and water transport, railway transport capacity mainly for cargo, quantity, unit area of small goods, water generally relates to a very wide range, it including between countries, between the coastal cities of transport logistics.
After analysis of regression equations, linear equations we can draw is:
The meaning of the equation is the three streams of cargo and transport equipment exhibits a linear relationship with the increase in rail, road and waterway transport, cargo is showing a rise in the value of times, they exhibit proportional relationship.
Finally, we made the prediction model, predicted results are in line with freight data ARIMA (0, 1, 0) model prediction, graphic prediction model as shown in Figure 1 is a graphical representation of the gradual increase
Table 5. Tianjin logistics transportation equipment.
Table 6. Correlation analysis.
Table 7. Regression equations.
Figure 1. Predictive model. Note: X-axis represents the predicted time point; Y-axis represents the model coefficients.
in the year, cargo showed an increasing trend and it is expected in 2014 to 2016, 2011 to 2014 data show an upward trend, so we expect the 2015 and 2016 data will continue to rise. Tianjin cargo volume will continue to rise, it is a strong basis for economic development in Tianjin.
Tianjin’s development is inseparable from the efforts of each other. We should seize the development of Tianjin’s agriculture and vigorously develop the agricultural economy. Agricultural development needs the starting from the farmer skills. The local government should make use of Internet technology. The government can spread advanced network platform and guide farmers to learn advanced techniques and theoretical knowledge. For example, the planting outstanding cases are made into a video. It will be spread to the network platform and it will be learned by farmers. In addition, Tianjin should make use of local developed logistics and transport equipment, and make effective combination of rail and road. Tianjin should protect the product quality and safety in the aspect of logistics. When it is necessary, the government should vigorously promote enterprises to establish reasonable safety stock, and reduce transport of goods. It will reduce transport costs and improve service quality. Finally, Tianjin should strengthen the training of staffs. On one hand, it is important to strengthen the capacity of staff hands-on. On the other hand, Tianjin city trains more excellent talents which is also a good way to accelerate the development of Tianjin. It will strengthen the cooperation with Beijing.