Vidya R. Saraf^1,2, Dattatray G. Regulwar¹

Show more
¹ Department of Civil Engineering, Government College of Engineering, Jalgaon, Maharashtra State, India.
² Department of Civil Engineering, Government College of Engineering, Aurangabad, Maharashtra State, India.
Show less

Abstract: In the present study SDSM downscaling model was used as a tool for downscaling weather data statistically in upper Godavari river basin. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and HadCM3, have been used to project future maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation. The predictor variables are extracted from: 1) the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1961-2003, 2) the simulations from the third-generation Hadlycentre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3) and Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) variability and changes in Tmax, Tmin and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model have been presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The scatter-plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation. Maximum temperature increases in future for almost all the scenarios for both GCMs. Also downscaled future precipitation shows increasing trends for all scenarios.

Keywords: Downscaling, CGCM3, HadCM3, Scenario, Temperature, Precipitation

Cite this paper: Saraf, V. and Regulwar, D. (2016) Assessment of Climate Change for Precipitation and Temperature Using Statistical Downscaling Methods in Upper Godavari River Basin, India. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 8, 31-45. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2016.81004.

References

[1]   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate Change 2001—The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

[2]   Anandhi, A., Srinivas, V.V., Nanjundiah, R. and Kumar, N. (2008) Downscaling Precipitation to River Basin in India for IPCC SRES Scenarios Using Support Vector Machine. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 401-420.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1529

[3]   Mujumdar, P.P. and Ghosh, S. (2008) Modeling GCM And Scenario Uncertainty Using a Possibilistic Approach: Application to Mahananadi River Basin. Water Resources Research, 44, 1-15.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006137

[4]   Minville, M., Brissette, F. and Leconte, R. (2008) Uncertainty of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Nordic Watershed. Journal of Hydrology, 358, 70-83.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.033

[5]   Ghosh, S. (2009) SVM-PGSL Coupled Approach for Downscaling to Predict Rainfall From GCM Output. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, 1-18.

[6]   Kannan, S. and Ghosh, S. (2012) A Nonparametric Kernal Regression Model for Downscaling Multisite Daily Precipitation in the Mhanadi Basin. Water Resources Research, 49, 1-26.

[7]   Goyal, M.K., Ojha, C.S.P. and Burn, D.H. (2012) Nonparametric Statistical Downscaling of Temperature, Precipitation and Evaporation in Semiarid Region in India. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ASCE, 17, 615-627.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000479

[8]   Wang, X.Y., Yang, T., Shao, Q.X., Acharya, K. and Wang, W.G. (2012) Statistical Downscaling of Extremes of Precipitation and Temperature and Construction of Their Future Scenarions in an Elevated and Cold Zone. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 26, 405-418.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0535-z

[9]   Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W. and Barrow, E.M. (2002) SDSM—A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts. Environmental Modelling & Software, 17, 147-159.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00060-3

[10]   Tisseuil, C., Vrac, M., Lek, S. and Wade, A.J. (2010) Statistical Downscaling of River Flow. Journal of Hydrology, 385, 279-291.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.030

[11]   Eric, P. and Salathe, J.R. (2003) Comparision of Various Precipitation Downscaling Methods for the Simulation of Streamflow in a Rainshadow River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 887-901.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.922

[12]   Wilby, R.L. and Wigley, T.M.L. (2000) Precipitation Predictors for Downscaling: Observed and General Circulation Model Relationships. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 641-661.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200005)20:6<641::AID-JOC501>3.0.CO;2-1

[13]   Fistikoglu, O. and Okkan, U. (2011) Statistical Downscaling of Monthly Precipitation Using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data for Tahtali River Basin in Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16, 157-164.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000300

[14]   Fiseha, B.M., Melesse, A.M., Romano, E., Volpi, E. and Fiori, A. (2012) Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature for the Upper Tiber Basin in Central Italy. International Journal of Water Sciences, 1, 1-14.

[15]   Rajabi, A. and Shabanlou, S. (2013) The Analysis of Uncertainty of Climate Change by Means of SDSM Model Case Study: Kermanshah. World Applied Sciences Journal, 23, 1392-1398.

[16]   Ahmadi, A., Moridi, A., Lafdani, E.K. and Kianpisheh, G. (2014) Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Using Large Scale Climate Variables and Downscaling Models—A Case Study. Journal of Earth System Science, 123, 1603-1618.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12040-014-0497-x

[17]   Wilby, R.L. and Dawson, C.W. (2007) SDSM User Manual—A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts.

[18]   Salzmann, N., Frei, C., Vidale, P.-L. and Hoelzle, M. (2007) The Application of Regional Climate Model Output for the Simulation of High-Mountain Permafrost Scenarios. Global and Planetary Change, 56, 188-202.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.006

[19]   Mahmood, R. and Babel, M.S. (2012) Evaluation of SDSM Developed by Annual and Monthly Sub-Models for Downscaling Temperature and Precipitation in the Jhelum Basin, Pakistan and India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 27-44.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0765-0

[20]   Singh, D., Jain, S.K. and Gupta, R.D. (2015) Statistical Downscaling and Projection of Future Temperature and Precipitation Change in Middle Catchment of Sutlej River Basin, India. Journal of Earth System Science, 124, 843-860.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0575-8

[21]   Sharma, D., Das Gupta, A. and Babel, M.S. (2007) Spatial Disaggregation of Bias-Corrected GCM Precipitation for Improved Hydrologic Simulation: Ping River Basin, Thailand. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4, 35-74.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-4-35-2007