Implications of Land Use Land Cover Change and Climate Variability on Future Prospects of Beef Cattle Production in the Lake Victoria Basin
Author(s)
Japhet Joel Kashaigili1*,
Emmanuel Zziwa2,3,
Siwa Ernest4,
Emma Laswai1,
Bernard Musana Segatagara5,
Denis Mpairwe2,
Reuben Mpuya Joseph Kadigi1,
Cyprian Ebong5,
Samuel Katambi Mugasi6,
Germana Henry Laswai1,
Mutimura Mupenzi5,
Polycarp Jacob Ngowi1,
Ibrahim Lwaho Kadigi1
Affiliation(s)
1 Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania. 2 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda. 3 Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA), Entebbe, Uganda. 4 Tanzania Forestry Research Institute (TAFORI), Morogoro, Tanzania. 5 Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB), Kigali, Rwanda. 6 National Agricultural Advisory Services, (NAADS), Kampala, Uganda.
1 Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania. 2 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda. 3 Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA), Entebbe, Uganda. 4 Tanzania Forestry Research Institute (TAFORI), Morogoro, Tanzania. 5 Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB), Kigali, Rwanda. 6 National Agricultural Advisory Services, (NAADS), Kampala, Uganda.
ABSTRACT
This paper presents the lessons learnt from a research project titled “Improving Beef Cattle Productivity for Enhanced Food Security and Efficient Utilization of Natural Resources in the Lake Victoria Basin” which includes Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. The key focus is on the implications of land use land cover change and climate variability on the future prospects of beef cattle production in this region. The study utilizes information and data from natural resources and climate components to deduce the impact of land use and land cover changes on climate variability. Additional analysis is conducted to summarize the land use and land cover data to carry out analysis on climate data using the Mann-Kendal test, linear regression and moving averages to reveal patterns of change and trends in annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. The findings reveal that the study areas of Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) have changed over time following land cover manipulations and land use change, coupled with climate variability. The grazing land has been converted to agriculture and settlements, thereby reducing cattle grazing land which is the cheapest and major feed source for ruminant livestock production. Although the cattle population has been on the increase in the same period, it has been largely attributed to the fact that the carrying capacity of available grazing areas had not been attained. The current stocking rates in the LVB reveal that the rangelands are greatly overstocked and overgrazed with land degradation already evidenced in some areas. Climate variability coupled with a decrease in grazing resources is driving unprecedented forage scarcity which is now a major limiting factor to cattle production. Crop cultivation and settlement expansion are major land use types overtaking grazing lands; therefore the incorporation of crop residues into ruminant feeding systems could be a feasible way to curtail rangeland degradation and increase beef cattle production.
This paper presents the lessons learnt from a research project titled “Improving Beef Cattle Productivity for Enhanced Food Security and Efficient Utilization of Natural Resources in the Lake Victoria Basin” which includes Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. The key focus is on the implications of land use land cover change and climate variability on the future prospects of beef cattle production in this region. The study utilizes information and data from natural resources and climate components to deduce the impact of land use and land cover changes on climate variability. Additional analysis is conducted to summarize the land use and land cover data to carry out analysis on climate data using the Mann-Kendal test, linear regression and moving averages to reveal patterns of change and trends in annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. The findings reveal that the study areas of Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) have changed over time following land cover manipulations and land use change, coupled with climate variability. The grazing land has been converted to agriculture and settlements, thereby reducing cattle grazing land which is the cheapest and major feed source for ruminant livestock production. Although the cattle population has been on the increase in the same period, it has been largely attributed to the fact that the carrying capacity of available grazing areas had not been attained. The current stocking rates in the LVB reveal that the rangelands are greatly overstocked and overgrazed with land degradation already evidenced in some areas. Climate variability coupled with a decrease in grazing resources is driving unprecedented forage scarcity which is now a major limiting factor to cattle production. Crop cultivation and settlement expansion are major land use types overtaking grazing lands; therefore the incorporation of crop residues into ruminant feeding systems could be a feasible way to curtail rangeland degradation and increase beef cattle production.
KEYWORDS
Beef Cattle Production, Climate Variability, Crop Residues, Land Use Land Cover Change, Lake Victoria Basin
Beef Cattle Production, Climate Variability, Crop Residues, Land Use Land Cover Change, Lake Victoria Basin
Cite this paper
Kashaigili, J. , Zziwa, E. , Ernest, S. , Laswai, E. , Segatagara, B. , Mpairwe, D. , Kadigi, R. , Ebong, C. , Mugasi, S. , Laswai, G. , Mupenzi, M. , Ngowi, P. and Kadigi, I. (2015) Implications of Land Use Land Cover Change and Climate Variability on Future Prospects of Beef Cattle Production in the Lake Victoria Basin. American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 461-473. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.45037.
Kashaigili, J. , Zziwa, E. , Ernest, S. , Laswai, E. , Segatagara, B. , Mpairwe, D. , Kadigi, R. , Ebong, C. , Mugasi, S. , Laswai, G. , Mupenzi, M. , Ngowi, P. and Kadigi, I. (2015) Implications of Land Use Land Cover Change and Climate Variability on Future Prospects of Beef Cattle Production in the Lake Victoria Basin. American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 461-473. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.45037.
References
[1] Kulindwa, A.A.K. (2006) Social and Policy Framework: Context of People and Livelihood. In: Odada, E.O., Olago, D.O. and Ochola, W.O. (Eds.), Environment for Development: An Ecosystems Assessment of Lake Victoria Basin Environment and Socioeconomic Status, Trends and Human Vulnerabilities. [2] Rutamu (2010) Investment Opportunities in the Dairy Sub-Sector of Rwanda. SNV and IFAD Final Report, 50 p.
www.snvworld.org/.../investment_opportunities_dairy_sub-sector_of_rwanda.pdf [3] Rukazambuga, N.T.D. (2008) Agricultural Innovation and Technology in Africa: Rwanda Experience Coffee, Banana and Dairy Commodity Chains. 37 p.
http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/243550/RwandaInnovationStudyreport.pdf [4] MAAIF and UBOS (2009) Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries and Uganda Bureau of Statistics. National Livestock Census Report 2008. [5] CARE International—Tanzania (2004) Final Report of the Midterm Evaluation. Magu District Livelihood Security Project of Magu District, Mwanza. [6] Mpofu, N., Mareko, M.H.D. and Makore, J. (1998) The Growth Performance of Crossbred Progeny of Foreign Sire Breeds in Semi-Arid Africa. Proceedings of the 6th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production, Bulawayo, 6-12 March 1998, 227-230. [7] Steinfeld, H., Gerber, P., Wassenaar, T., Castel, V., Rosales, M. and de Haan, C. (2006) Livestock’s Long Shadow. FAO, Rome. [8] Zziwa, E., Kironchi, G., Gachene, G., Mugerwa, S. and Mpairwe, D. (2012) The Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Nakasongola District. Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences, 2, 61-73. [9] Mugerwa, S., Mpairwe, D., Zziwa, E., Namutebi, S. and Peden, D. (2012) Improving Livestock Water Productivity in Semi-Arid Ecosystems: Restoration of Pasture on Degraded Bare Surfaces. Novus Natural Science Research, 1, 1-13. [10] Siwa, E. (2013) Rangeland Monitoring and Assessment for Improved Beef Cattle Production under Changing Climatic Conditions Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Case of Ilemela and Magu Districts in the Lake Victoria Basin, Tanzania. MSc. Dissertation, Ardhi University, Tanzania. [11] Laswai, G.H., Kashaigili, J.J., Zziwa, E., Musana, B.S., Mpairwe, D., Kadigi, R.M.J., Ebong, C., Mugasi, S.K., Laswai, G.H. and Mupenzi, M. (2015) Improving Beef Cattle Productivity for Enhanced Food Security and Efficient Utilization of Natural Resources in the Lake Victoria Basin. VicRes Annual Project Report. [12] Salmi, T., Määttä, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T. and Amnell, T. (2002) Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates—The Excel Template Application MAKESENS, Publications on Air Quality No. 31, Report Code FMI-AQ-31, Finnish Meteorological Institute, 35 p. [13] Laswai, E. (2014) Evaluation of Coping Strategies of Pastoral Communities to the Effects of Climate Variability in Magu and Ilemela Districts, Tanzania. MSc. Dissertation, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania. [14] United Republic of Tanzania—URT (2005) Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Vice President’s Office, Dar es Salaam. [15] United Republic of Tanzania—URT (2007) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). Division of Environment, Vice President’s Office, Dar es Salaam. [16] Kashaigili, J.J., Levira, P., Liwenga, E. and Mdemu, M.V. (2014) Analysis of Climate Variability, Perceptions and Coping Strategies of Tanzanian Coastal Forest Dependent Communities. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 212-222.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2014.32020 [17] Barten, T.J. (2013) Evaluation and Prediction of Corn Stover Biomass and Composition from Commercially Available Corn Hybrids. Ph.D. Dissertation, Iowa State University, Ames. [18] Ryan, S.M., Unruh, J.A., Corrigan, M.E., Drouillard, J.S. and Seyfert, M. (2007) Effects of Concentrate Level on Carcass Traits of Boer Crossbred Goats. Small Ruminant Research, 73, 67-76.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.smallrumres.2006.11.004 [19] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [20] Kangalawe, R.Y.M. and Lyimo, J.G. (2013) Climate Change, Adaptive Strategies and Rural Livelihoods in Semiarid Tanzania. Natural Resources, 4, 266-278.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/nr.2013.43034
[1] Kulindwa, A.A.K. (2006) Social and Policy Framework: Context of People and Livelihood. In: Odada, E.O., Olago, D.O. and Ochola, W.O. (Eds.), Environment for Development: An Ecosystems Assessment of Lake Victoria Basin Environment and Socioeconomic Status, Trends and Human Vulnerabilities. [2] Rutamu (2010) Investment Opportunities in the Dairy Sub-Sector of Rwanda. SNV and IFAD Final Report, 50 p.
www.snvworld.org/.../investment_opportunities_dairy_sub-sector_of_rwanda.pdf [3] Rukazambuga, N.T.D. (2008) Agricultural Innovation and Technology in Africa: Rwanda Experience Coffee, Banana and Dairy Commodity Chains. 37 p.
http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/243550/RwandaInnovationStudyreport.pdf [4] MAAIF and UBOS (2009) Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries and Uganda Bureau of Statistics. National Livestock Census Report 2008. [5] CARE International—Tanzania (2004) Final Report of the Midterm Evaluation. Magu District Livelihood Security Project of Magu District, Mwanza. [6] Mpofu, N., Mareko, M.H.D. and Makore, J. (1998) The Growth Performance of Crossbred Progeny of Foreign Sire Breeds in Semi-Arid Africa. Proceedings of the 6th World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production, Bulawayo, 6-12 March 1998, 227-230. [7] Steinfeld, H., Gerber, P., Wassenaar, T., Castel, V., Rosales, M. and de Haan, C. (2006) Livestock’s Long Shadow. FAO, Rome. [8] Zziwa, E., Kironchi, G., Gachene, G., Mugerwa, S. and Mpairwe, D. (2012) The Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Nakasongola District. Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences, 2, 61-73. [9] Mugerwa, S., Mpairwe, D., Zziwa, E., Namutebi, S. and Peden, D. (2012) Improving Livestock Water Productivity in Semi-Arid Ecosystems: Restoration of Pasture on Degraded Bare Surfaces. Novus Natural Science Research, 1, 1-13. [10] Siwa, E. (2013) Rangeland Monitoring and Assessment for Improved Beef Cattle Production under Changing Climatic Conditions Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Case of Ilemela and Magu Districts in the Lake Victoria Basin, Tanzania. MSc. Dissertation, Ardhi University, Tanzania. [11] Laswai, G.H., Kashaigili, J.J., Zziwa, E., Musana, B.S., Mpairwe, D., Kadigi, R.M.J., Ebong, C., Mugasi, S.K., Laswai, G.H. and Mupenzi, M. (2015) Improving Beef Cattle Productivity for Enhanced Food Security and Efficient Utilization of Natural Resources in the Lake Victoria Basin. VicRes Annual Project Report. [12] Salmi, T., Määttä, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T. and Amnell, T. (2002) Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates—The Excel Template Application MAKESENS, Publications on Air Quality No. 31, Report Code FMI-AQ-31, Finnish Meteorological Institute, 35 p. [13] Laswai, E. (2014) Evaluation of Coping Strategies of Pastoral Communities to the Effects of Climate Variability in Magu and Ilemela Districts, Tanzania. MSc. Dissertation, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania. [14] United Republic of Tanzania—URT (2005) Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Vice President’s Office, Dar es Salaam. [15] United Republic of Tanzania—URT (2007) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). Division of Environment, Vice President’s Office, Dar es Salaam. [16] Kashaigili, J.J., Levira, P., Liwenga, E. and Mdemu, M.V. (2014) Analysis of Climate Variability, Perceptions and Coping Strategies of Tanzanian Coastal Forest Dependent Communities. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 212-222.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2014.32020 [17] Barten, T.J. (2013) Evaluation and Prediction of Corn Stover Biomass and Composition from Commercially Available Corn Hybrids. Ph.D. Dissertation, Iowa State University, Ames. [18] Ryan, S.M., Unruh, J.A., Corrigan, M.E., Drouillard, J.S. and Seyfert, M. (2007) Effects of Concentrate Level on Carcass Traits of Boer Crossbred Goats. Small Ruminant Research, 73, 67-76.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.smallrumres.2006.11.004 [19] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [20] Kangalawe, R.Y.M. and Lyimo, J.G. (2013) Climate Change, Adaptive Strategies and Rural Livelihoods in Semiarid Tanzania. Natural Resources, 4, 266-278.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/nr.2013.43034