The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions
Author(s)
Nils-Axel Mörner
ABSTRACT
By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Sporer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809-1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.
By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Sporer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809-1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.
Cite this paper
Mörner, N. (2015) The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions. Natural Science, 7, 510-518. doi: 10.4236/ns.2015.711052.
Mörner, N. (2015) The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions. Natural Science, 7, 510-518. doi: 10.4236/ns.2015.711052.
References
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[1] Morner, N.-A., Tattersall, R. and Solheim, J.-E. (2913) Pattern in Solar Variability, Their Planetary Origin and Terrestrial Impact. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 1, 203-204. www.pattern-recognphys.net/special_issue2.html [2] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning. Nova Science Publishers, New York. [3] Eddy, J.A. (1976) The Maunder Minimum. Science, 192, 1189-1202.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.192.4245.1189 [4] Lamb, H.H. (1979) Climate Variation and Changes in the Wind and Ocean Circulation. Quaternary Research, 11, 1-20.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(79)90067-X [5] Morner, N.-A. (2010) Solar Minima, Earth’s Rotation and Little Ice Ages in the Past and in the Future. The North Atlantic-European Case. Global Planetary Change, 72, 282-293.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004 [6] Morner, N.-A., Nevanlinna, H., Dergachev, V., Shumilov, O., Raspopov, O., Abrahamsen, N., Pilipenko, O., Trubikhin, V. and Gooskova, E. (2013) Geomagnetism and Climate V: General Conclusions. EGS-AGU-EGU, Nice, Abstracts CL2.08. [7] Morner, N.A., Nenanlinna, H. and Shumilov, O. (2013) Past Climate Changes, Origin And Predictions. EGS-AGU-EGU, Nice, Abstracts CL2.07. [8] Landscheidt, T. (2003) New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming. Energy and Environment, 14, 327-350.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/095830503765184646 [9] Morner, N.-A. (2006) 2500 Years of Observations, Deductions, Models and Geoethics. Bollettino della Società Geologica Italiana, 125, 259-264. [10] Charvátová, I. (2009) Long-Term Predictive Assessments of Solar and Geomagnetic Activities Made on the Basis of the Close Similarity between the Solar Inertial Motions in the Intervals 1840-1905 and 1980-2045. New Astronomy, 14, 25-30.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2008.04.005 [11] Morner, N.-A. (2011) Arctic Environment by the Middle of This Century. Energy & Environment, 22, 207-218.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/0958-305X.22.3.207 [12] D’Aleo, J. (2011) Chapter 10: Solar Changes and Climate. In: Easterbrook, D.J., Ed., Evidence-Based Climate Science, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 253-276.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385956-3.10010-5 [13] Archibald, D. (2011) Chapter 11: The Current Solar Minimum and Its Consequences for Climate. In: Easterbrook, D.J., Ed., Evidence-Based Climate Science, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 277-287.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385956-3.10011-7 [14] Casey, J.L. (2011) Cold Sun: A Dangerous “Hiber-nation” of the Sun Has Begun. Trafford Publishing, Bloomington. [15] Scafetta, N. (2012) Multi-Scale Harmonic Model for Solar and Climate Cyclical Variation throughout the Holocene Based on Jupiter-Saturn Tidal Frequencies plus the 11-Year Solar Dynamo Cycle. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 80, 296-311.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2012.02.016 [16] Cionco, R.G. and Compagnucci, R.H. (2012) Dynamical Characterization of the Last Prolonged Solar Minima. Advances in Space Research, 50, 1434-1444.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2012.07.013 [17] Morner, N.-A. (2013) Planetary Beat and Solar-Terrestrial Responses. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 1, 107-116.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-107-2013 [18] Solheim, J.-E. (2013) Signals from the Planets, via the Sun to the Earth. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 1, 177-184.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-177-2013 [19] Wilson, I.R.G. (2013) The Venus-Earth-Jupiter Spin-Orbit Coupling. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 1, 147-158.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-147-2013 [20] Salvador, R. (2013) A Mathematical Model of the Sunspot Cycle for the Past 1000 yr. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 1, 117-122.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-117-2013 [21] Morner, N.-A., Tattersall, R., Solheim, J.-E., Charvatova, I., Scafetta, N., Jelbring, H., Wilson, J.R., Salvador, R., Willson, R.C., Hejda, P., Soon, W., Velasco Herrera, V.M., Humlum, O., Archibald, D., Yndestad, H., Easterbrook, D.J., Casey, J., Gregori, G. and Henriksson, G. (2013) General Conclu-sions regarding the Planetary-Solar-Terrestrial Interaction. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 1, 205-206.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-205-2013 [22] Charvátová, I. and Hejda, P. (2014) Responses of the Basic Cycles of 178.7 and 2402 yr in Solar-Terrestrial Phenomena during the Holocene. Pattern Recognition in Physics, 2, 21-26.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-2-21-2014 [23] Abdussamatov, H.J. (20114) Long-Term Negative Average Annual Energy Balance of the Earth Leads to the Little Ice Age. Proceedings of the XVIII Conference on Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2014, Pulkovo, 20-25 October 2014, 3-6. [24] Georgieva, K., Nagovitsyn, Y. and Kirov, B. (2014) Solar Magnetic Field and Terrestrial Climate. Proceedings of the XVIII Conference on Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2014, Pulkovo, 20-25 October 2014, 99-104. [25] Shepherd, S.I., Zharkov, S.I. and Zharkova, V.V. (2014) Prediction of Solar Activity from Solar Background Magnetic Field Variations in Cycles 21-23. Astrophysics Journal, 795, 46.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46 [26] Cionco, R.G. and Soon, W. (2015) A Phenomenological Study of the Timing of Solar Activity Minima of the Last Millennium through Modelling the Sun-Planets Interaction. New Astronomy, 34, 164-171.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2014.07.001 [27] Velasco Herrera, V.M., Mendoza, B. and Velasco Herrera, G. (2015) Reconstruction and Prediction of the Total Solar Irradiance; from the Medieval Warm Period to the 21st Century. New Astronomy, 34, 221-233.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2014.07.009 [28] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 2: Planetary-Solar-Terrestrial Interaction: A Review. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 5-32. [29] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 4: Multiple Planetary Influences on the Earth. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 39-49. [30] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 9: Concluding Re-marks. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Sci-ence Publishers, Hauppauge, 109-120. [31] Morner, N.-A., Monckton, C., Gregori, G., Tattersall, R., Solheim, J.-E., Scafetta, N., Charvatova, I., Jelbring, H., Wilson, J.R., Salvador, R., Willson, R.C., Hansen, J.M., Humlum, O., Karlén, W., Nemec, N., Kalenda, P., Archibald, D., Velasco Herrera, V.M., Grandpierre, A. and Easterbrook, D.J. (2015) Chapter 17: Conclusions and Perspectives. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 187-190. [32] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 10: An Unbelievable Decision. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 123-126. [33] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 11: Introduction to Section B. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 129-134. [34] Monckton of Brenchley, C. (2015) Chapter 12: The Thermaggedon Cult Strikes Again. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 135-138. [35] Gregori, G. (2015) Chapter 13: Science: An Historical Perspective. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 139-146. [36] Monckton of Brenchley, C. (2015) Chapter 14: What Is Science? In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 149-165. [37] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 15: Climate Fundamentalism. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 167-174. [38] Morner, N.-A. (2015) When Reason Sleeps, Monster Take Wings. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 177-184. [39] Morner, N.-A. (2015) Chapter 18: Concluding Editorial Remarks. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary In-fluence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 191-193. [40] The Telegraph, July 11, 2015.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-
years.html?WT.mc_id=e_DM30959&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New&utm_source=email&utm_
medium=Edi_FPM_New_2015_07_11&utm_campaign=DM30959 [41] Morner, N.-A. (2015) An Editorial Note on the Desperate Search for a Stable Point. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 121. [42] Morner, N.-A. (2012) Planetary Beat, Solar Wind and Terrestrial Climate. In: Escaropa, C.D. and Berós Cruz, A.F., Eds., Solar Wind: Emission, Technology and Impacts, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 47-66. [43] Klyashtorin, L.B., Borisov, V. and Lyubushin, A. (2009) Cyclic Changes of Climate and Major Commercial Stocks of the Barents Sea. Marine Biology Research, 5, 4-17.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17451000802512283 [44] Morner, N.-A. (2013) Solar Wind, Earth’s Rotation and Changes in Terrestrial Climate. Physical Review & Research International, 3, 117-136. [45] IPCC (2007) Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [46] Hansen, J.M. (2015) Chapter 5: Sea-Level Effects on NOA and AMO: Synchronization and Amplitude Locking by the Lunar Nodal Oscillation in the North Sea and the Baltic Embayment. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 51-77. [47] Bard, E., Raisbeck, G., Yiou, F. and Jouzel, J. (2000) Solar Irradiance during the Last 1200 Years Based on Cosmogenic Nuclides. Tellus, 52B, 985-992.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1118965109 [49] Morner, N.-A. (1996) Global Change and Interaction of Earth Rotation, Ocean Circulation and Paleoclimate. Brazilian Academy of Sciences, 68, 77-94. [50] Grandpierre, A. (2015) Chapter 8: The Origin of Solar Activity: Local Thermonuclear Runways in Hot Bubbles and Their Triggers. In: Morner, N.-A., Ed., Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, 91-108. [51] Abreu, J.A., Beer, J., Ferriz-Mas, A., McCracken, K.G. and Steinhilber, F. (2012) Is There a Planetary Influence on Solar Activity? Astronomy & Astrophysics, A88, 1-9.
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