Co-Integration Models for Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, India
Affiliation(s)
1 National Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR), Hyderabad, India. 2 Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (MoES), Hyderabad, India.
1 National Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR), Hyderabad, India. 2 Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (MoES), Hyderabad, India.
ABSTRACT
Koyna region, a seismically active region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict others since these parameters are interlinked. If these series were stationary, we used correlation analysis. However, it is seen that maximum of these time series are nonstationary. In this case, co-integration method is used that is extracted from econometrics and forecast is possible. We have applied this methodology to study time series of reservoir water levels of this region and we find them to be co-integrated. Therefore, forecast of water levels for one of the reservoir is done from the other as these will never drift apart too much. The outcomes demonstrate that a joint modelling of both data sets based on underlying physics resolves to be sparingly useful for understanding predictability issues in reservoir induced seismicity.
Koyna region, a seismically active region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict others since these parameters are interlinked. If these series were stationary, we used correlation analysis. However, it is seen that maximum of these time series are nonstationary. In this case, co-integration method is used that is extracted from econometrics and forecast is possible. We have applied this methodology to study time series of reservoir water levels of this region and we find them to be co-integrated. Therefore, forecast of water levels for one of the reservoir is done from the other as these will never drift apart too much. The outcomes demonstrate that a joint modelling of both data sets based on underlying physics resolves to be sparingly useful for understanding predictability issues in reservoir induced seismicity.
Cite this paper
Ramana, D. , Kumar, J. , Singh, R. and Chadha, R. (2015) Co-Integration Models for Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, India. International Journal of Geosciences, 6, 1173-1178. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2015.610092.
Ramana, D. , Kumar, J. , Singh, R. and Chadha, R. (2015) Co-Integration Models for Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, India. International Journal of Geosciences, 6, 1173-1178. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2015.610092.
References
[1] Gupta, H.K. (2002) A Review of Recent Studies of Triggered Earthquakes by Artificial Water Reservoirs with Special Emphasis on Earthquakes in Koyna, India. Earth Science Review, 58, 279-310.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(02)00063-6 [2] Telesca, L. (2010) Analysis of the Cross Correlation between Seismicity and Water Level in the Koyna Area of India. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100, 2317-2321.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090392 [3] Li-ping, Song, X.Y., Sheng, T.Y. and Peng, T. (2009) The Annual Runoff Forecasting Research Based on the Theory of Cointegration and Error Correction Model. [4] Gupta, H.K. and Rastogi, B.K. (1976) Dams and Earthquakes. Elsevier Publishers, Amsterdam, 299 p. [5] Gupta, H.K. (1983) Induced Seismicity Hazard Mitigation through Water Level Manipulation: A Suggestion. BSSA, 73, 679-682. [6] Singh, C., Bhattacharya, P.M. and Chadha, R.K. (2008) Seismicity in the Koyna-Warna Reservoir Site in Western India: Fractal and b-Value Mapping. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98, 476-482. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120070165
[1] Gupta, H.K. (2002) A Review of Recent Studies of Triggered Earthquakes by Artificial Water Reservoirs with Special Emphasis on Earthquakes in Koyna, India. Earth Science Review, 58, 279-310.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(02)00063-6 [2] Telesca, L. (2010) Analysis of the Cross Correlation between Seismicity and Water Level in the Koyna Area of India. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100, 2317-2321.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090392 [3] Li-ping, Song, X.Y., Sheng, T.Y. and Peng, T. (2009) The Annual Runoff Forecasting Research Based on the Theory of Cointegration and Error Correction Model. [4] Gupta, H.K. and Rastogi, B.K. (1976) Dams and Earthquakes. Elsevier Publishers, Amsterdam, 299 p. [5] Gupta, H.K. (1983) Induced Seismicity Hazard Mitigation through Water Level Manipulation: A Suggestion. BSSA, 73, 679-682. [6] Singh, C., Bhattacharya, P.M. and Chadha, R.K. (2008) Seismicity in the Koyna-Warna Reservoir Site in Western India: Fractal and b-Value Mapping. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98, 476-482. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120070165