The Effect of Climate Change on Land and Water Use
ABSTRACT
Climate warming is recognized as an objective reality all over the world. The typical characteristics of this warming include rise in soil and air temperature, more frequent and intensified extreme weather events (droughts, floods, storms) that especially became apparent in the recent decade, and, finally, change in precipitation patterns. In the arid areas, to which the Aral Sea basin, the research object, belongs too, more frequent dry years accompanied by decreased river water availability and precipitation and increased aridity of air are the most critical. This has a negative effect on agriculture in the basin’s countries, which is a source of livelihoods for almost half of the population. Most researchers studying the climate change effects note that the temperature rise leads to increased evaporation and, hence, to growth of water demands for irrigation of crops. The analysis made for the Fergana Valley on the basis of potential evapotranspiration proves an increase in moisture deficit during growing season through the rise in air temperature. According to REMO modeling of climatic scenarios until 2100, evapotranspiration would increase significantly by 4 - 8 mm/day in summer months. However, it is demonstrated also that the thermal potential of given area would be changing. The growth of the thermal potential causes that the sum of effective temperatures is reached in shorter period of time and the crops can be sown earlier. This, first, would reduce the crop development phases and the growing season as a whole, and, consequently, would decrease the total water use. For example, for the mid-season cotton, the growing season would become 30 days shorter and the water use would decrease by 100 mm by 2100. The thermal patterns should be considered as the basis for crop rotation and, hence, for water planning.
Climate warming is recognized as an objective reality all over the world. The typical characteristics of this warming include rise in soil and air temperature, more frequent and intensified extreme weather events (droughts, floods, storms) that especially became apparent in the recent decade, and, finally, change in precipitation patterns. In the arid areas, to which the Aral Sea basin, the research object, belongs too, more frequent dry years accompanied by decreased river water availability and precipitation and increased aridity of air are the most critical. This has a negative effect on agriculture in the basin’s countries, which is a source of livelihoods for almost half of the population. Most researchers studying the climate change effects note that the temperature rise leads to increased evaporation and, hence, to growth of water demands for irrigation of crops. The analysis made for the Fergana Valley on the basis of potential evapotranspiration proves an increase in moisture deficit during growing season through the rise in air temperature. According to REMO modeling of climatic scenarios until 2100, evapotranspiration would increase significantly by 4 - 8 mm/day in summer months. However, it is demonstrated also that the thermal potential of given area would be changing. The growth of the thermal potential causes that the sum of effective temperatures is reached in shorter period of time and the crops can be sown earlier. This, first, would reduce the crop development phases and the growing season as a whole, and, consequently, would decrease the total water use. For example, for the mid-season cotton, the growing season would become 30 days shorter and the water use would decrease by 100 mm by 2100. The thermal patterns should be considered as the basis for crop rotation and, hence, for water planning.
Cite this paper
Stulina, G. and Solodkiy, G. (2015) The Effect of Climate Change on Land and Water Use. Agricultural Sciences, 6, 834-847. doi: 10.4236/as.2015.68081.
Stulina, G. and Solodkiy, G. (2015) The Effect of Climate Change on Land and Water Use. Agricultural Sciences, 6, 834-847. doi: 10.4236/as.2015.68081.
References
[1] Dukhovny, V.A., Sokolov, V.I., et al. (2012) Dynamics of the Present Water Balance in the Fergana Valley. Collection of SIC ICWC Scientific Papers, Issue 13, 5-27. [2] Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, G., van der Linden, P. and Hanson, Eds., Contribution WG2 to the Fourth Assessment Report to Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Changes, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 469-506. [3] Mannig, B., Müller, M., Starke, E., Merkenschlager, C., Mao, W., Zhi, X., Podzun, R., Jacob, D. and Paeth, H. (2013) Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change in Central Asia. Global and Planetary Change, 110, 26-39.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.008 [4] Parry, M.L., Rozenzweig, C., Iglesias, F., Fisher, G. and Livermore, G. (1999) Climate Changes and World Food Security. Global Environment, 9, 51-67.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00018-7 [5] Rozenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Yang, V.B., Epshtein, P.Z. and Chevian, E. (2001) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Implication for Food Production, Plant Diseases and Pest. Global Change and Human Health, 2, 90-104.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1015086831467 [6] Vleck, P.L.G., Rodríguez-Kuhl, G. and Sommer, R. (2004) Energy Use and CO2 Production in Tropical Agriculture and Means and Strategies for Reduction or Mitigation. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 6, 213-233.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:ENVI.0000003638.42750.36 [7] Stulina, G. and Madramootoo, C. (2005) Adaptation Water Resources Management to Climate Change Condition in Aral Sea Basin, Alberta. Conference Proceedings CWRA (Canadian Water Resources Association) of “Reflections on Our Future”, Banff, Alberta, 14-18 June 2005. [8] Stulina, G. and Usmanov, V. (2002) What Is to Expert in Agriculture in View of Climate Change. Dialogue on Water and Climate: Aral Sea Basin case Study, Project N 12.130.021, Tashkent. [9] Stulina, G.V. and Solodkiy, G.F. (2011) Adaptation of Water Planning to Climatic and Hydrogeological Changes: The Use of Water and Land Resources and Environmental Problems in the EECCA Region in Context of Climate Change. Collection of Scientific Papers, SIC ICWC, Tashkent, 46-59. [10] Babushkin, L.N. (1957) Climatic Characterization of Aridity and Hot Dry Winds in Summer in the Cotton Area of Uzbekistan: Origin of Hot Dry Winds and Their Control. AN SSSR, Moscow, 59-64. [11] Chub, V.Ye. (2007) Climate Change and Its Impact on Hydrometeorological and Agroclimatic Processes and on Water Recourses in the Republic of Uzbekistan. “Voris-nashriyot”, Tashkent. [12] Dukhovny, V.A. (2008) Regional Model of Integrated Water Resources Management in Twinned River Basins— RIVERTWIN. SIC ICWC, Tashkent, 188.
[1] Dukhovny, V.A., Sokolov, V.I., et al. (2012) Dynamics of the Present Water Balance in the Fergana Valley. Collection of SIC ICWC Scientific Papers, Issue 13, 5-27. [2] Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, G., van der Linden, P. and Hanson, Eds., Contribution WG2 to the Fourth Assessment Report to Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Changes, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 469-506. [3] Mannig, B., Müller, M., Starke, E., Merkenschlager, C., Mao, W., Zhi, X., Podzun, R., Jacob, D. and Paeth, H. (2013) Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change in Central Asia. Global and Planetary Change, 110, 26-39.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.008 [4] Parry, M.L., Rozenzweig, C., Iglesias, F., Fisher, G. and Livermore, G. (1999) Climate Changes and World Food Security. Global Environment, 9, 51-67.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00018-7 [5] Rozenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Yang, V.B., Epshtein, P.Z. and Chevian, E. (2001) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Implication for Food Production, Plant Diseases and Pest. Global Change and Human Health, 2, 90-104.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1015086831467 [6] Vleck, P.L.G., Rodríguez-Kuhl, G. and Sommer, R. (2004) Energy Use and CO2 Production in Tropical Agriculture and Means and Strategies for Reduction or Mitigation. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 6, 213-233.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:ENVI.0000003638.42750.36 [7] Stulina, G. and Madramootoo, C. (2005) Adaptation Water Resources Management to Climate Change Condition in Aral Sea Basin, Alberta. Conference Proceedings CWRA (Canadian Water Resources Association) of “Reflections on Our Future”, Banff, Alberta, 14-18 June 2005. [8] Stulina, G. and Usmanov, V. (2002) What Is to Expert in Agriculture in View of Climate Change. Dialogue on Water and Climate: Aral Sea Basin case Study, Project N 12.130.021, Tashkent. [9] Stulina, G.V. and Solodkiy, G.F. (2011) Adaptation of Water Planning to Climatic and Hydrogeological Changes: The Use of Water and Land Resources and Environmental Problems in the EECCA Region in Context of Climate Change. Collection of Scientific Papers, SIC ICWC, Tashkent, 46-59. [10] Babushkin, L.N. (1957) Climatic Characterization of Aridity and Hot Dry Winds in Summer in the Cotton Area of Uzbekistan: Origin of Hot Dry Winds and Their Control. AN SSSR, Moscow, 59-64. [11] Chub, V.Ye. (2007) Climate Change and Its Impact on Hydrometeorological and Agroclimatic Processes and on Water Recourses in the Republic of Uzbekistan. “Voris-nashriyot”, Tashkent. [12] Dukhovny, V.A. (2008) Regional Model of Integrated Water Resources Management in Twinned River Basins— RIVERTWIN. SIC ICWC, Tashkent, 188.