A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Ag-riculture in Dosso and Maradi Regions of Niger Republic
ABSTRACT
The impact of climate variability on Maradi and Dosso agriculture was estimated taking into account farmer adaptations. The study used a Ricardian analysis of 200 farms to explore the effects of climate variability on net revenue. It also simulates the impact of different climate scenarios on agriculture incomes. This analysis bespeaks that if temperature increases 1°C annually, the annual crop net revenues for both frameworks will decrease up to 582170.7 FCFA2 for model without adaptation (M1) and up to 1316 FCFA for model with adaptation (M2). An increase of Precipitation of 1 mm/month will increase crop receipts for the frameworks up to 721,917 FCFA for M1 and 1,861,455 FCFA for M2. In order to predict climate change impacts for these regions, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of IPCC scenarios were examined. The crop net receipts will fall between 10% and 26% if the scenarios happen. Another finding of this study is that each farmer who is practicing adaptation is able to cover the potential loss from climate variability up to 8.95% and 12.71% per ha respectively in Maradi and in Dosso. The study proposes that these regions should start planning measures for unexpected event of climate conditions. Irrigated systems need to be encouraged in order to minimize the vulnerability of the agricultural sector.
The impact of climate variability on Maradi and Dosso agriculture was estimated taking into account farmer adaptations. The study used a Ricardian analysis of 200 farms to explore the effects of climate variability on net revenue. It also simulates the impact of different climate scenarios on agriculture incomes. This analysis bespeaks that if temperature increases 1°C annually, the annual crop net revenues for both frameworks will decrease up to 582170.7 FCFA2 for model without adaptation (M1) and up to 1316 FCFA for model with adaptation (M2). An increase of Precipitation of 1 mm/month will increase crop receipts for the frameworks up to 721,917 FCFA for M1 and 1,861,455 FCFA for M2. In order to predict climate change impacts for these regions, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of IPCC scenarios were examined. The crop net receipts will fall between 10% and 26% if the scenarios happen. Another finding of this study is that each farmer who is practicing adaptation is able to cover the potential loss from climate variability up to 8.95% and 12.71% per ha respectively in Maradi and in Dosso. The study proposes that these regions should start planning measures for unexpected event of climate conditions. Irrigated systems need to be encouraged in order to minimize the vulnerability of the agricultural sector.
Cite this paper
Mamane Bello, G. and Malam Maman, M. (2015) A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Agriculture in Dosso and Maradi Regions of Niger Republic. Agricultural Sciences, 6, 724-733. doi: 10.4236/as.2015.67070.
Mamane Bello, G. and Malam Maman, M. (2015) A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Agriculture in Dosso and Maradi Regions of Niger Republic. Agricultural Sciences, 6, 724-733. doi: 10.4236/as.2015.67070.
References
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.009 [11] Sene, I.M., Diop, M. and Dieng, A. (2006) Impacts of Climate Change on the Revenues and Adaptation of Farmers in Senegal. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 20, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [12] Jain, S. (2006) An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 27, Centre for Environ mental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [13] Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2006) Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe: A Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 11, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [14] Deressa, T. (2006) Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture: Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 25, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [15] Sanghi, A., Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A. (1998) The Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture. In: Dinar, A., et al., Eds., Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper 402, World Bank, Washington DC, 23, 30-32. [16] Kumar, K. and Parikh, J. (1998) Climate Change Impacts on Indian Agriculture: The Ricardian Approach. In: Dinar, A., Mendelsohn, R., Everson, R., Parikh, J., Sanghi, A. and Kumar, K., Eds., Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper 402, World Bank, Washington DC, 23, 30-32. [17] Polsky, C. (2004) Putting Space and Time in Ricardian Climate Change Impact Studies: Agriculture in the US Great Plains, 1969-1992. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94, 549-564.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.2004.00413.x [18] Polsky, C. and Esterling, W.E. (2001) Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in the US Great Plains: A Multi-Scale Analysis of Ricardian Climate Sensitivities. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, 85, 133-144.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00180-3 [19] Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2007) Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe: A Ricardian Approach. Policy Research Working Paper 4292, World Bank, Washington DC. [20] Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Dalfelt, A. (2003) Climate Change Impacts on African Agriculture. Mimeo, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven. [21] Kurukulasuriya, P. and Mendelsohn, R. (2006) A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 8, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [22] Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., Basist, A., Williams, C. and Kogan, F. (2004) Climate Analysis with Satellite versus Weather Station Data. Proceedings of the Session: Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity and Rural Income at the Allied Social Science Association, San Diego, 3-5 January 2004, 12-30.
[1] INS, Niger (2010) Annuaire statistique des cinquante ans d’Independence du Niger, édition spéciale 2010. Institut National de la Statistique du Niger, 257, 259-277.
http://www.stat-niger.org/statistique/file/Annuaires_Statistiques/Annuaire_ins_2010/serie_longue.pdf [2] Ouedraogo, M., Somé, L. and Dembele, Y. (2006) Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Agriculture in Burkina Faso: A Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 24. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [3] Deschenes, O. and Greenstone, M. (2006) The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations of Weather. Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano. [4] Finger, R. and Schmid, S. (2007) Modelling Agricultural Production Risk and the Adaptation to Climate Change. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. MPRA Paper No. 3943. Paper Prepared for Presentation at the 101st European Association of Agricultural Economists Seminar “Management of Climate Risks in Agriculture”, Berlin, 5-6 July 2007. [5] Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W. and Shaw, D. (1994) The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis. The American Economic Review, 84, 753-771. [6] Benhin, J.K.A. (2006) Climate Change and South African Agriculture: Impacts and Adaptation Options. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 21. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [7] Kabubo-Mariara, J. and Karanja, F. (2006) The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 12. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [8] Eid, H., El-Marsafawy, S. and Ouda, S. (2006) Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 16. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [9] Gbetiobouo, G.A. and Hassan R.M. (2004) Economic Impact of Climate Change on Major South African Field Crops: A Ricardian Approach. MSc Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [10] Gbetibouo, G.A. and Hassan, R.M. (2005) Economic Impact of Climate Change on Major South African Field Crops: A Ricardian Approach. Global and Planetary Change, 47, 143-152.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.009 [11] Sene, I.M., Diop, M. and Dieng, A. (2006) Impacts of Climate Change on the Revenues and Adaptation of Farmers in Senegal. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 20, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [12] Jain, S. (2006) An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 27, Centre for Environ mental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [13] Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2006) Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe: A Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 11, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [14] Deressa, T. (2006) Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture: Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 25, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [15] Sanghi, A., Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A. (1998) The Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture. In: Dinar, A., et al., Eds., Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper 402, World Bank, Washington DC, 23, 30-32. [16] Kumar, K. and Parikh, J. (1998) Climate Change Impacts on Indian Agriculture: The Ricardian Approach. In: Dinar, A., Mendelsohn, R., Everson, R., Parikh, J., Sanghi, A. and Kumar, K., Eds., Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper 402, World Bank, Washington DC, 23, 30-32. [17] Polsky, C. (2004) Putting Space and Time in Ricardian Climate Change Impact Studies: Agriculture in the US Great Plains, 1969-1992. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94, 549-564.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.2004.00413.x [18] Polsky, C. and Esterling, W.E. (2001) Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in the US Great Plains: A Multi-Scale Analysis of Ricardian Climate Sensitivities. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, 85, 133-144.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00180-3 [19] Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2007) Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe: A Ricardian Approach. Policy Research Working Paper 4292, World Bank, Washington DC. [20] Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Dalfelt, A. (2003) Climate Change Impacts on African Agriculture. Mimeo, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven. [21] Kurukulasuriya, P. and Mendelsohn, R. (2006) A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 8, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. [22] Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., Basist, A., Williams, C. and Kogan, F. (2004) Climate Analysis with Satellite versus Weather Station Data. Proceedings of the Session: Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity and Rural Income at the Allied Social Science Association, San Diego, 3-5 January 2004, 12-30.