Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Malawi: Spatial and Social Differentiation in the Shire River Basin
Author(s)
Jeanne Yekeleya Coulibaly1,
Cheikh Mbow1,
Gudeta Weldesemayat Sileshi2,
Tracy Beedy3,
Godfrey Kundhlande4,
John Musau1
Affiliation(s)
1 World Agroforestry Center, United Nations Avenue Gigiri, Nairobi, Kenya. 2 P. O. Box 5600, Lusaka, Zambia. 3 1210 Utica Street, Plainview, USA. 4 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Programme, Chitedze Agricultural Research Station, Lilongwe, Malawi.
1 World Agroforestry Center, United Nations Avenue Gigiri, Nairobi, Kenya. 2 P. O. Box 5600, Lusaka, Zambia. 3 1210 Utica Street, Plainview, USA. 4 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Programme, Chitedze Agricultural Research Station, Lilongwe, Malawi.
ABSTRACT
This article analyses vulnerability to climate related shocks across five districts in the shire river basin of Malawi. The analysis employs an indicator approach that integrates biophysical and socio-economic indices. Principal component statistical analysis was used to calculate an index for adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate impact for each of the five districts. These indices were aggregated to develop a vulnerability index differentiated also by gender for the surveyed districts. The results showed that Chikwawa, Machinga and Blantyre appear to be more vulnerable to climate related shocks compared with Mwanza and Zomba. Women in Chikwawa are also found to be the most susceptible to the climate hazards impacts. To reduce vulnerability to climate impact, the study suggests that the national adaptation strategies adopted by the government should be mainstreamed into specific local adaptation actions that can be accessible and adopted by the community. Specific emphasis should be given to the improvement of women’s welfare through better access to productive assets and resources.
This article analyses vulnerability to climate related shocks across five districts in the shire river basin of Malawi. The analysis employs an indicator approach that integrates biophysical and socio-economic indices. Principal component statistical analysis was used to calculate an index for adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate impact for each of the five districts. These indices were aggregated to develop a vulnerability index differentiated also by gender for the surveyed districts. The results showed that Chikwawa, Machinga and Blantyre appear to be more vulnerable to climate related shocks compared with Mwanza and Zomba. Women in Chikwawa are also found to be the most susceptible to the climate hazards impacts. To reduce vulnerability to climate impact, the study suggests that the national adaptation strategies adopted by the government should be mainstreamed into specific local adaptation actions that can be accessible and adopted by the community. Specific emphasis should be given to the improvement of women’s welfare through better access to productive assets and resources.
Cite this paper
Coulibaly, J. , Mbow, C. , Sileshi, G. , Beedy, T. , Kundhlande, G. and Musau, J. (2015) Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Malawi: Spatial and Social Differentiation in the Shire River Basin. American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 282-294. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.43023.
Coulibaly, J. , Mbow, C. , Sileshi, G. , Beedy, T. , Kundhlande, G. and Musau, J. (2015) Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Malawi: Spatial and Social Differentiation in the Shire River Basin. American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 282-294. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.43023.
References
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www.socmon.org/download.ashx?docid=64623 [29] Coulibaly, Y.J., Gbetibouo, G.A., Kundhlande, G., Sileshi, G.W. and Beedy, T.L. (2015) Responding to Crop Failure: Understanding Farmers’ Coping Strategies in Southern Malawi. Sustainability, 7, 1-17.
http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/2/1620 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su7021620 [30] Corbett, J. (2008) Famine and Household Coping Strategies. World Development, 16, 1099-1112.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(88)90112-X [31] Cherotich, V.K., Saidu, O. and Bebe, B.O. (2012) Access to Climate Change Information and Support Services by the Vulnerable Groups in Semi-Arid Kenya for Adaptive Capacity Development. African Crop Science Journal, 20, 169- 180. [32] Fafchamps, M. and Minten, B. (2001) Returns to Social Network Capital among Traders. Oxford Economic Papers, 54, 173-206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/54.2.173 [33] Knack, S. and Keefer, P. (1997) Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation. Quar- terly Journal of Economics, 112, 1251-1288.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355300555475 [34] Morrow, B.H. (1999) Identifying and Mapping Community Vulnerability. Disasters, 23, 11-18.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-7717.00102 [35] Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P.M. (1999) Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4, 253-266.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009601904210 [36] Cattell, R.B. (1978) The Scientific Use of Factor Analysis in Behavioral and Life Sciences. Plenum, New York. [37] Filmer, D. and Pritchett, L.H. (2001) Estimating Wealth Effects without Expenditure Data—Or Tears: An Application to Educational Enrolments in States of India. Demography, 38, l15-131. [38] Adger, W.N. and Vincent, K. (2005) Uncertainty in Adaptive Capacity. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399-410. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2004.11.004 [39] FEWS NET (2013) Malawi Food Security Outlook August 2012 to March 2013. FEWS NET, Lilongwe. [40] Venema, J.H. (1991) Land Resources Appraisal of Ngabu Agricultural Development Division. Field Document No. 21. Land Resources Evaluation Project, Malawi Government Ministry of Agriculture, Land Husbandry Branch, UNDP, FAO. [41] Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) (2010) Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis. MVAC, Lilongwe.
[1] FEWS NET (2015) Malawi Food Security Outlook Update, February, Lilongwe. [2] Nangoma, E. (2007) National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of Malawi. Human Development Report 2007/2008, 8 p. [3] FAO (2010) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010. Main Report. FAO Forestry Paper 163. [4] (2011) Economic Analysis of Sustainable Resource Use in Malawi. UNDP Report, Lilongwe. [5] Cutter, S.L., Mitchell, J.T. and Scott, M.S. (2000) Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 90, 713-737. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0004-5608.00219 [6] Gbetibouo, G.A. and Ringler, C. (2009) Mapping South African Farming Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability: A Subnational Assessment. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00885, Washington DC. [7] Piya, L., Maharjan, K.L. and Joshi, N.P. (2012) Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Extremes: Analysis of Chepang Households in the Mid-Hills of Nepal. Selected Paper Prepared for Presentation at “The International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) Triennial Conference,” Fozdo Iguacu, 18-24 August 2012. [8] Vogel, C. and O’Brien, K. (2004) Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change: Rhetoric and Reality. Information Bulletin on Global Environmental Change and Human Security, No. 13. Environmental Change and Security Project and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa. [9] MMNRE (Ministry of Mines, Natural Resources and the Environment) (2006) Malawi’s National Adaptation Programmes for Action (NAPA). Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Affairs, Lilongwe. [10] GOM (Government of Malawi) (2010) Malawi: Shire River Basin Management Project. Project Information Document, Concept Stage. Report No. AB 5365, Lilongwe. [11] Sileshi, G. and Beedy, T. (2009) Land Capability and Suitability. Shire River Basin GEF Project, Draft Report, Lilong- we, 57 p. [12] World Bank (2012) Shire River Basin Management Programme. Project Appraisal Document. World Bank, Washington DC. [13] UNDP (2005) Sustainable Land Management and Climate Adaptation in the Shire River Basin. Project Development Facility. Request for PDFB/FSP. UNDP Initiation Document, Lilongwe, Malawi. [14] Hebb, A. and Mortsch, L. (2007) Floods: Mapping Vulnerability in the Upper Thames Watershed under a Changing Climate. Final Report of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) Project: Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions. [15] Gallopin, G.C. (2006) Linkages between Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptive Capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16, 293-303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004 [16] Hinkel, J. (2011) Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity. Towards a Clarification of the Science-Policy Interface. Global Environment Change, 21, 198-208.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002 [17] McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. and White, K.S. (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [18] Turner, B.L., Kasperson, R.E., Matson, P.A., McCarthy, J.J., Corell, R.W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Hovelsrud- Broda, G.K., Kasperson, J.X., Kasperson, R.E., Luers, A., Martello, M.L., Mathiesen, S., Naylor, R., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A. and Tyler, N. (2003) Illustrating the Coupled Human-Environment System for Vulnerability Analysis: Three Case Studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences of the United States of America, 100, 8080-8085. [19] Eriksen, S.H. and Kelly, P.M. (2006) Developing Credible Vulnerability Indicators for Climate Adaptation Policy Assessment. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 495-524.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-3460-6 [20] Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J. and Shirley, W.L. (2003) Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards. Social Science Quaterly, 84, 242-261. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002 [21] O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U., Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, K., Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nyggard, L. and West, J. (2004) Mapping Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Climate Change and Globalization in India. Global Environmental Change, 14, 303-313.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.01.001 [22] Moss, R.H., Brenkert, A.L. and Malone, E.L. (2001) Vulnerability to Climate Change. A Quantitative Approach. Report No. PNNL-SA-33642, Pacific Nortwest National Laboratory, Washington DC.
http://www.ntis.gov/ [23] Adger, W.N. (1999) Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam. World Development, 27, 249-269. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00136-3 [24] Nkondze, M.S., Masuku, M.B. and Manyatsi, A. (2013) Factors Affecting Households Vulnerability to Climate Change in Swaziland: A Case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme (ADP). Journal of Agricultural Science, 5, 108-122. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jas.v5n10p108 [25] Scoones, I. (1998) Sustainable Rural Livelihood: A Framework for Analysis. IDS Working Paper 72. [26] Adger, W.N. (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268-281.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006 [27] Burton, I., Kates, R.W. and White, G.F. (1993) The Environment as Hazard. 2nd Edition, Guilford Press, New York. [28] Supin, W. and Loper, C. (2011) Indicators to Assess Community Level Social Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Addendum to SocMon and Em-Pasifika Regional Socio-Economic Guidelines.
www.socmon.org/download.ashx?docid=64623 [29] Coulibaly, Y.J., Gbetibouo, G.A., Kundhlande, G., Sileshi, G.W. and Beedy, T.L. (2015) Responding to Crop Failure: Understanding Farmers’ Coping Strategies in Southern Malawi. Sustainability, 7, 1-17.
http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/2/1620 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su7021620 [30] Corbett, J. (2008) Famine and Household Coping Strategies. World Development, 16, 1099-1112.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(88)90112-X [31] Cherotich, V.K., Saidu, O. and Bebe, B.O. (2012) Access to Climate Change Information and Support Services by the Vulnerable Groups in Semi-Arid Kenya for Adaptive Capacity Development. African Crop Science Journal, 20, 169- 180. [32] Fafchamps, M. and Minten, B. (2001) Returns to Social Network Capital among Traders. Oxford Economic Papers, 54, 173-206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/54.2.173 [33] Knack, S. and Keefer, P. (1997) Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation. Quar- terly Journal of Economics, 112, 1251-1288.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355300555475 [34] Morrow, B.H. (1999) Identifying and Mapping Community Vulnerability. Disasters, 23, 11-18.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-7717.00102 [35] Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P.M. (1999) Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4, 253-266.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009601904210 [36] Cattell, R.B. (1978) The Scientific Use of Factor Analysis in Behavioral and Life Sciences. Plenum, New York. [37] Filmer, D. and Pritchett, L.H. (2001) Estimating Wealth Effects without Expenditure Data—Or Tears: An Application to Educational Enrolments in States of India. Demography, 38, l15-131. [38] Adger, W.N. and Vincent, K. (2005) Uncertainty in Adaptive Capacity. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399-410. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2004.11.004 [39] FEWS NET (2013) Malawi Food Security Outlook August 2012 to March 2013. FEWS NET, Lilongwe. [40] Venema, J.H. (1991) Land Resources Appraisal of Ngabu Agricultural Development Division. Field Document No. 21. Land Resources Evaluation Project, Malawi Government Ministry of Agriculture, Land Husbandry Branch, UNDP, FAO. [41] Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) (2010) Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis. MVAC, Lilongwe.