Meteorological Indices Approach for Prediction of Thunderstorm Probability at Two Coastal Sites in Egypt
ABSTRACT
Siting of hazardous facilities such as Nuclear power plants requires the investigation of the meteorological and climatologically of the site region to derive extreme values of the meteorological variables to be considered in the design for safety purposes. Not only normally occurring meteorological conditions but also extremely rare events are considered. The present work is devoted to predict the likelihood of the Thunderstorm which is one of the rare events of concern for plant safety. Four atmospheric stability indices such as K-indices, the Showalter-indices, total totals-indices and the SWEAT-indices have been used for that. These function of meteorological parameters such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction and dew point at levels of pressure at 500, 700 and 850 hpa to predict the thunderstorm probability. Two Egyptian coastal sities have been chosen for the investigation, one on the Mediterranean Sea and the other on Red Sea; El Sallum and Sharm El Sheikh. The results show that the probability of thunderstorm occurred within the months January and February during 1989-2003, where the maximum value of SI, K, TT and SWEAT indices at January & February months equals 29.31 & 28.20, 18.4 & 20.3 & 48.1 & 49 and 238.01 & 350.6 for Sallum city respectively, and equals 26.05 & 24.53, 24.6 & 23.9, 50.6 & 51.5 and 253.4 & 265.4 for Sharm El Sheikh city respectively, and this agrees with the pattern reviewed based on world geographic and climatic condition.
Siting of hazardous facilities such as Nuclear power plants requires the investigation of the meteorological and climatologically of the site region to derive extreme values of the meteorological variables to be considered in the design for safety purposes. Not only normally occurring meteorological conditions but also extremely rare events are considered. The present work is devoted to predict the likelihood of the Thunderstorm which is one of the rare events of concern for plant safety. Four atmospheric stability indices such as K-indices, the Showalter-indices, total totals-indices and the SWEAT-indices have been used for that. These function of meteorological parameters such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction and dew point at levels of pressure at 500, 700 and 850 hpa to predict the thunderstorm probability. Two Egyptian coastal sities have been chosen for the investigation, one on the Mediterranean Sea and the other on Red Sea; El Sallum and Sharm El Sheikh. The results show that the probability of thunderstorm occurred within the months January and February during 1989-2003, where the maximum value of SI, K, TT and SWEAT indices at January & February months equals 29.31 & 28.20, 18.4 & 20.3 & 48.1 & 49 and 238.01 & 350.6 for Sallum city respectively, and equals 26.05 & 24.53, 24.6 & 23.9, 50.6 & 51.5 and 253.4 & 265.4 for Sharm El Sheikh city respectively, and this agrees with the pattern reviewed based on world geographic and climatic condition.
KEYWORDS
Showalter Indices, TT Indices, K-Indices, SWEAT Indices, Radiosond, Temperature and Dew Point
Showalter Indices, TT Indices, K-Indices, SWEAT Indices, Radiosond, Temperature and Dew Point
Cite this paper
Ahmed, O. and Sadek, M. (2015) Meteorological Indices Approach for Prediction of Thunderstorm Probability at Two Coastal Sites in Egypt. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 5, 219-227. doi: 10.4236/acs.2015.53016.
Ahmed, O. and Sadek, M. (2015) Meteorological Indices Approach for Prediction of Thunderstorm Probability at Two Coastal Sites in Egypt. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 5, 219-227. doi: 10.4236/acs.2015.53016.
References
[1] IAEA (2011) Safety Aspects in Siting for Nuclear Installations, Draft Safety Guide, DS433. IAEA, Vienna. [2] International Atomic Energy (1980) Atmospheric Dispersion in Nuclear Power Plant Siting. A Series No. 50-SG-S3, IAEA, Vienna. [3] Huntrieser, H., Schiesser, H.H., Schmid, W. and Waldvogel, A. (1997) Comparison of Traditional and Newly Developed Thunderstorm Indices for Switzerland. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 108-125.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0108:COTAND>2.0.CO;2 [4] Haklander, A.J. and Van Delden, A. (2003) Thunderstorm Predictors and Their Forecast Skill for the Netherlands. Atmospheric Research, 67-68, 273-299. [5] Adegboyega, G.A. and Odeyemi, K.O. (2012) Assessment of Areas That Are Prone to Thunderstorm Activities in the Northeast Zone of Nigeria. Journal of Academic and Applied Studies (JAAS), 2, 1-7. [6] Gottlieb, R.J. (2009) Analysis of Stability Indices for Severe Thunderstorms in the Northeastern United States. Honors Thesis, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Physical Sciences of Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. [7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharm_el-Sheikh [8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sallum [9] Elshaeb, M.A., El-Badawy, S.M. and Shawaly, El-S.A. (2014) Development and Impact of the Egyptian Climatic Conditions on Flexible Pavement Performance. American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2, 115-121. [10] Shata, A.S.A. (2008) Theoretical Investigation and Mathematical Modelling of a Wind Energy System Case Study for Mediterranean and Red Sea. Ph.D. Thesis, Technische Universitat Berlin, Berlin. [11] Showalter, A.K. (1953) A Stability Indices for Thunderstorm Forecasting. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 34, 250-252. [12] Jayakrishnan, P.R. and Babu, C.A. (2014) Assessment of Convective Activity Using Stability Indices as Inferred from Radiosonde and MODIS Data. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 122-130.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.41014 [13] www.arl.noaa.gov/ready [14] Bluestein, H. (1993) Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes: Vol II Observations and Theory of Weather Systems. Oxford University Press, New York, 594 p. [15] Miller, R.C. (1972) Notes on Analysis and Severe Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Tech. Rept. 200(R), Headquarters, Air Weather Service, USAF, 190 p. [16] George, J.J. (1960) Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics. Academic Press, Waltham, MA, 673 p. [17] Djuric, D. (1994) Weather Analysis. Prentice-Hall Inc., 304 p.
[1] IAEA (2011) Safety Aspects in Siting for Nuclear Installations, Draft Safety Guide, DS433. IAEA, Vienna. [2] International Atomic Energy (1980) Atmospheric Dispersion in Nuclear Power Plant Siting. A Series No. 50-SG-S3, IAEA, Vienna. [3] Huntrieser, H., Schiesser, H.H., Schmid, W. and Waldvogel, A. (1997) Comparison of Traditional and Newly Developed Thunderstorm Indices for Switzerland. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 108-125.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0108:COTAND>2.0.CO;2 [4] Haklander, A.J. and Van Delden, A. (2003) Thunderstorm Predictors and Their Forecast Skill for the Netherlands. Atmospheric Research, 67-68, 273-299. [5] Adegboyega, G.A. and Odeyemi, K.O. (2012) Assessment of Areas That Are Prone to Thunderstorm Activities in the Northeast Zone of Nigeria. Journal of Academic and Applied Studies (JAAS), 2, 1-7. [6] Gottlieb, R.J. (2009) Analysis of Stability Indices for Severe Thunderstorms in the Northeastern United States. Honors Thesis, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Physical Sciences of Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. [7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharm_el-Sheikh [8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sallum [9] Elshaeb, M.A., El-Badawy, S.M. and Shawaly, El-S.A. (2014) Development and Impact of the Egyptian Climatic Conditions on Flexible Pavement Performance. American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2, 115-121. [10] Shata, A.S.A. (2008) Theoretical Investigation and Mathematical Modelling of a Wind Energy System Case Study for Mediterranean and Red Sea. Ph.D. Thesis, Technische Universitat Berlin, Berlin. [11] Showalter, A.K. (1953) A Stability Indices for Thunderstorm Forecasting. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 34, 250-252. [12] Jayakrishnan, P.R. and Babu, C.A. (2014) Assessment of Convective Activity Using Stability Indices as Inferred from Radiosonde and MODIS Data. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 122-130.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.41014 [13] www.arl.noaa.gov/ready [14] Bluestein, H. (1993) Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes: Vol II Observations and Theory of Weather Systems. Oxford University Press, New York, 594 p. [15] Miller, R.C. (1972) Notes on Analysis and Severe Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Tech. Rept. 200(R), Headquarters, Air Weather Service, USAF, 190 p. [16] George, J.J. (1960) Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics. Academic Press, Waltham, MA, 673 p. [17] Djuric, D. (1994) Weather Analysis. Prentice-Hall Inc., 304 p.