JEP  Vol.6 No.5 , May 2015
Anticipated Inversion and Visibility Conditions over Glacier Bay with a Changing Climate
ABSTRACT
A RCP4.5 simulation from the Community Earth System Model was downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, inline coupled with chemistry, to examine how climate change may affect inversions and visibility in Glacier Bay in the presence of cruise-ship visitations. Mean downscaled climate conditions for the tourist seasons for 2006-2012 were compared with downscaled conditions for 2026-2032 with identical cruise-ship entries and operating conditions thereby isolating pollutant retention and visibility differences caused by atmospheric climate change. Notable changes in future temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind-speed occurred for large areas of Southeast Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska, although the anticipated differences were less pronounced in Glacier Bay due to the presence of the large glaciers and ice fields. While increased sensible heat and water vapor in the atmospheric boundary layer contributed to on average 4.5 h reduced inversion duration in Glacier Bay, the on average 0.23 m·s-1 reduced wind speeds increased inversion frequency by 4% on average. The future on average wetter conditions and altered precipitation patterns in Glacier Bay affected the removal of gases and particulate matter emitted by cruise ships locally or advected from areas outside the park. Season-spatial averaged visibility in Glacier Bay remained the same. However, visibility was degraded in the future scenario later in the season and slightly improved during spring. The warmer conditions contributed to decreased visibility indirectly by tieing up less NO2 in PAN and increasing biogenic NOx emissions. The wetter conditions contributed to reduced visibility in the last third of the tourist season.

Cite this paper
Mölders, N. and Gende, S. (2015) Anticipated Inversion and Visibility Conditions over Glacier Bay with a Changing Climate. Journal of Environmental Protection, 6, 515-537. doi: 10.4236/jep.2015.65048.
References
[1]   Anisimov, O.A., Vaughan, D.G., Callaghan, T.V., et al. (2007) Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E., Eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 653-685.

[2]   Reeves, R.R., Ewins, P.J., Agbayani, S., Heide-Jørgensen, M.P., Kovacs, K.M., et al. (2014) Distribution of Endemic Cetaceans in Relation to Hydrocarbon Development and Commercial Shipping in a Warming Arctic. Marine Policy, 44, 375-389.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.10.005

[3]   CMTS (2014) Ten-Year Projection Study of Maritime Activity in the U.S. Arctic.
http://www.cmts.gov/downloads/Executive_Summary_CMTS_10-Year_
Arctic_Maritime_Activity_Projection_Report.pdf


[4]   National Park System Advisory Board Science Committee (2012) Revisiting Leopold: Resource Stewardship in the National Parks.
http://www.nps.gov/calltoaction/PDF/LeopoldReport_2012.pdf

[5]   Cole, D.N. and Yung, L. (2010) Beyond Naturalness: Rethinking Park and Wilderness Stewardship in an Era of Rapid Change. Island Press, Washington DC, 287 p.

[6]   NPS (2009) Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve Foundation Statement.
http://www.nps.gov/glba/learn/management/upload/GLBA_Foundation.pdf.

[7]   Vaughan, D.G., Comiso, J.C., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Kaser, G., Kwok, R., Mote, P., Murray, T., Paul, F., Ren, J., Rignot, E. and Solomina, O. (2013) Observations: Cryosphere. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., et al., Eds., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, 317-382.

[8]   Eijgelaar, E., Thaper, C. and Peeters, P. (2010) Antarctic Cruise Tourism: The Paradoxes of Ambassadorship, “Last Chance Tourism” and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18, 337-354.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09669581003653534

[9]   Eyring, V., Kohler, H.W., van Aardenne, J. and Lauer, A. (2005) Emissions from International Shipping: 1. The Last 50 Years. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, Article ID: D17305.

[10]   Seinfeld, J.H. and Pandis, S.N. (1997) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, from Air Pollution to Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1326 p.

[11]   Molders, N., Gende, S. and Pirhalla, M.A. (2013) Assessment of Cruise-Ship Activity Influences on Emissions, Air Quality, and Visibility in Glacier Bay National Park. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 4, 435-445.

[12]   Pirhalla, M.A., Gende, S. and Molders, N. (2014) Fate of Particulate Matter from Cruise-Ship Emissions in Glacier Bay during the 2008 Tourist Season. Journal of Environmental Protection, 4, 1235-1254.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2014.512118

[13]   Li, Z., Bhatt, U.S. and Molders, N. (2008) Impact of Doubled CO2 on the Interaction between the Global and Regional Water Cycles in Four Study Regions. Climate Dynamics, 30, 255-275.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0283-4

[14]   (2009) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. In: Karl, T.R., Melillo, J.M. and Peterson, T.C., Eds., United States Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, New York.

[15]   Molders, N. (2011) Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes—Impact on Climate and Air Quality. Springer, Heidelberg, 193 p.

[16]   Jacob, D.J. and Winner, D.A. (2009) Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality. Atmospheric Environment, 43, 51-63.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051

[17]   Gidhagen, L., Engardt, M., Lovenheim, B. and Johansson, C. (2012) Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality and Population Exposure in Urban Planning Scenarios. Advances in Meteorology, 2012, Article ID: 240894.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/240894

[18]   Menut, L., Tripathi, O.P., Colette, A., Vautard, R., Flaounas, E., et al. (2013) Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations for Air Quality Modelling Purposes. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2515-2533.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1345-9

[19]   Gustafson, W.I. and Ruby Leung, L. (2007) Regional Downscaling for Air Quality Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1215-1227.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-8-1215

[20]   Zhang, Y., Liu, X.-H., Olsen, K.M., Wang, W.X., Do, B.A., et al. (2010) Responses of Future Air Quality to Emission Controls over North Carolina, Part II: Analyses of Future-Year Predictions and Their Policy Implications. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 2767-2779.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.03.022

[21]   Paeth, H. and Mannig, B. (2013) On the Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in Climate Change Assessment. Climate Dynamics, 41, 1057-1066.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1517-7

[22]   Xue, Y.K., Janjic, Z., Dudhia, J., Vasic, R. and De Sales, F. (2014) A Review on Regional Dynamical Downscaling in Intraseasonal to Seasonal Simulation/Prediction and Major Factors That Affect Downscaling Ability. Atmospheric Research, 147-148, 68-85.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.05.001

[23]   Lamarque, J.-F., Emmons, L.K., Hess, P.G., Kinnison, D.E., Tilmes, S., et al. (2012) CAM-Chem: Description and Evaluation of Interactive Atmospheric Chemistry in the Community Earth System Model. Geoscientific Model Development, 5, 369-411.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-369-2012

[24]   Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., Arblaster, J.M., Hu, A.X., Teng, H.Y., et al. (2013) Climate Change Projections in CESM1 (CAM5) Compared to CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 26, 6287-6308.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1

[25]   van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, K., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., et al. (2011) The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

[26]   Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D.O., Barker, D., et al. (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR/TN, 125 p.
http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3.pdf

[27]   Grell, G.A., Peckham, S.E., Schmitz, R., McKeen, S.A., Frost, G., et al. (2005) Fully Coupled “Online” Chemistry within the WRF Model. Atmospheric Environment, 39, 6957-6975.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.04.027

[28]   Peckham, S.E., Fast, J., Schmitz, R., Barth, M., Pfister, G., et al. (2011) WRF/Chem Version 3.3 User’s Guide. 96 p.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/wrf/WG11/wrf_tutorial_2011/WRFchem_Users_
Guide_v33_18july2011.pdf


[29]   Molders, N., Porter, S.E., Cahill, C.F. and Grell, G.A. (2010) Influence of Ship Emissions on Air Quality and Input of Contaminants in Southern Alaska National Parks and Wilderness Areas during the 2006 Tourist Season. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 1400-1413.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.02.003

[30]   Molders, N., Tran, H.N.Q., Quinn, P., et al. (2011) Assessment of WRF/Chem to Capture Sub-Arctic Boundary Layer Characteristics during Low Solar Irradiation Using Radiosonde, Sodar, and Station Data. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2, 283-299.

[31]   Molders, N., Tran, H.N.Q., Cahill, C.F., Leelasakultum, K. and Tran, T.T. (2012) Assessment of WRF/Chem PM2.5 Forecasts Using Mobile and Fixed Location Data from the Fairbanks, Alaska Winter 2008/09 Field Campaign. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 3, 180-191.

[32]   Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Lister, D.H. (2013) Updated High-Resolution Grids of Monthly Climatic Observations—The CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 623-642.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711

[33]   Molders, N., Bruyere, C.L., Gende, S. and Pirhalla, M.A. (2014) Assessment of the 2006-2012 Climatological Fields and Mesoscale Features from Regional Downscaling of CESM Data by WRF-Chem over Southeast Alaska. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 589-613.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.44053

[34]   Erler, A.R., Peltier, W.R. and D’Orgeville, M. (2014) Dynamically Downscaled High-Resolution Hydroclimate Projections for Western Canada. Journal of Climate, 28, 423-450.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00174.1

[35]   Hong, S.-Y. and Lim, J.-O.J. (2006) The WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6). Journal Korean Meteorological Society, 42, 129-151.
http://www.citeulike.org/user/bschwedler/article/9361791

[36]   Grell, G.A. and Devenyi, D. (2002) A Generalized Approach to Parameterizing Convection. Geophysical Research Letters, 29.

[37]   Chou, M.-D. and Suarez, M.J. (1994) An Efficient Thermal Infrared Radiation Parameterization for Use in General Circulation Models. Technical Report, 85 p.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.26.4850

[38]   Mlawer, E.J., Taubman, S.J., Brown, P.D., Iacono, M.J. and Clough, S.A. (1997) Radiative Transfer for Inhomogeneous Atmospheres: RRTM, a Validated Correlated-K Model for the Longwave. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 16663-16682.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237

[39]   Barnard, J., Fast, J., Paredes-Miranda, G., Arnott, W. and Laskin, A. (2010) Technical Note: Evaluation of the WRF-Chem “Aerosol Chemical to Aerosol Optical Properties” Module Using Data from the Milagro Campaign. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 7325-7340.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7325-2010

[40]   Janjic, Z.I. (2002) Nonsingular Implementation of the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso Model. NCEP Office Note, 61 p.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/officenotes/newernotes/on437.pdf

[41]   Chen, F. and Dudhia, J. (2000) Coupling an Advanced Land-Surface/Hydrology Model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model Description and Implementation. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 569-585.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2

[42]   Stockwell, W.R., Middleton, P., Chang, J.S. and Tang, X. (1990) The Second-Generation Regional Acid Deposition Model Chemical Mechanism for Regional Air Quality Modeling. Journal Geophysical Research, 95, 16343-16367.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD10p16343

[43]   Madronich, S. (1987) Photodissociation in the Atmosphere: 1. Actinic Flux and the Effects of Ground Reflections and Clouds. Journal Geophysical Research, 92, 9740-9752.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD08p09740

[44]   Wesely, M.L. (1989) Parameterization of Surface Resistances to Gaseous Dry Deposition in Regional-Scale Numerical Models. Atmospheric Environment, 23, 1293-1304.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(89)90153-4

[45]   Ackermann, I.J., Hass, H., Memmesheimer, M., Ebel, A., Binkowski, F.S., et al. (1998) Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe: Development and First Applications. Atmospheric Environment, 32, 2981-2299.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00006-5

[46]   Schell, B., Ackermann, I.J., Hass, H., Binkowski, F.S. and Ebel, A. (2001) Modeling the Formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol within a Comprehensive Air Quality Model System. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 28275-28293.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000384

[47]   Simpson, D., Guenther, A., Hewitt, C.N. and Steinbrecher, R. (1995) Biogenic Emissions in Europe 1. Estimates and Uncertainties. Journal Geophysical Research, 100, 22875-22890.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/95JD02368

[48]   Guenther, A. (1997) Seasonal and Spatial Variations in Natural Volatile Organic Compund Emissions. Ecological Applications, 7, 34-45.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0034:SASVIN]2.0.CO;2

[49]   Webb, K. and Gende, S.M. (2015) Activity Patterns and Speeds of Large Cruise Ships in Southeast Alaska. Coastal Management, 43, 67-83.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2014.989148

[50]   Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J.S., Kainuma, M.L.T., et al. (2011) The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Their Extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109, 213-241.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z

[51]   Keppel-Aleks, G., Randerson, J.T., Lindsay, K., Stephens, B.B., Keith Moore, J., et al. (2013) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries. Journal of Climate, 26, 4447-4475.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1

[52]   Buhaug, &OSLASH;., Corbett, J.J., Endresen, &OSLASH;., et al. (2009) Second IMO GHG Study 2009. International Maritime Organization, London.
http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/
Pages/Second-IMO-GHG-Study-2009.aspx


[53]   EPA (2007) Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze. Technical Notes, 262 p.
http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidance/guide/final-03-pm-rh-guidance.pdf.

[54]   Kim, J., Waliser, D.E., Mattmann, C.A., Mearns, L.O., Goodale, C.E., et al. (2013) Evaluation of the Surface Climatology over the Conterminous United States in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Hindcast Experiment Using a Regional Climate Model Evaluation System. Journal of Climate, 26, 5698-5715.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00452.1

[55]   Li, H.Q., Kanamitsu, M., Hong, S.-Y., Yoshimura, K., Cayan, D.R., et al. (2014) Projected Climate Change Scenario over California by a Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model System. Climatic Change, 122, 609-619.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1025-8

[56]   Smirnov, D., Newman, M. and Alexander, M.A. (2013) Investigating the Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling in the North Pacific Ocean. Journal of Climate, 27, 592-606.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00123.1

[57]   Molders, N. and Kramm, G. (2010) A Case Study on Wintertime Inversions in Interior Alaska with WRF. Atmospheric Research, 95, 314-332.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.06.002

[58]   Molders, N. (2013) Investigations on the Impact of Single Direct and Indirect, and Multiple Emission-Control Measures on Cold-Season Near-Surface PM2.5 Concentrations in Fairbanks, Alaska. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 4, 87-100.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5094/APR.2013.009

[59]   Zhao, Z., Chen, S.-H., Kleeman, M.J. and Mahmud, A. (2011) The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality—Related Meteorological Conditions in California. Part II: Present versus Future Time Simulation Analysis. Journal of Climate, 24, 3362-3376.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3850.1

[60]   Dawson, J.P., Bloomer, B.J., Winner, D.A. and Weaver, C.P. (2013) Understanding the Meteorological Drivers of U.S. Particulate Matter Concentrations in a Changing Climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 521-532.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00181.1

[61]   van Dijk, S.M., Gut, A., Kirkman, G.A., Gomes, N.M., Meixner, F.X., et al. (2002) Biogenic No Emissions from Forest and Pasture Soils: Relating Laboratory Studies to Field Measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, LBA 25-1-LBA 25-11.

[62]   Jacobson, M.Z. (2007) Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 813 p.

[63]   Lovejoy, E.R., Hanson, D.R. and Huey, L.G. (1996) Kinetics and Products of the Gas-Phase Reaction of SO3 with Water. The Journal of Physical Chemistry, 100, 19911-19916.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/jp962414d

[64]   Fiedler, V., Nau, R., Ludmann, S., Arnold, F., Schlager, H. and Stohl, A. (2009) East Asian SO2 Pollution Plume over Europe—Part 1: Airborne Trace Gas Measurements and Source Identification by Particle Dispersion Model Simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 4717-4728.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-4717-2009

[65]   Tran, H.N.Q. and Molders, N. (2011) Investigations on Meteorological Conditions for Elevated PM2.5 in Fairbanks, Alaska. Atmospheric Research, 99, 39-49.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.08.028

[66]   NPS (2015) Glacier Bay Cruise Ship Prospectus.
http://www.nps.gov/glba/learn/management/cruise-ship-prospectus-glba-cs-08.htm.

[67]   Meehl, G.A., Hu, A.X. and Santer, B.D. (2009) The Mid-1970s Climate Shift in the Pacific and the Relative Roles of Forced Versus Inherent Decadal Variability. Journal of Climate, 22, 780-792.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2552.1

 
 
Top