On the Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature
Affiliation(s)
1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA. 2 Landau Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chernogolovka, Russia.
1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA. 2 Landau Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chernogolovka, Russia.
ABSTRACT
The study of dynamic relationships between the atmospheric carbon dioxide and the Earth’s global temperature in the current changing climate supported the notion that the trend in the global temperature followed the trend in the atmospheric CO2 before the climate hiatus that started in the beginning of the 21st century. During the hiatus period, the heat trapped by the atmospheric CO2 is going mostly to the ocean. This conclusion is supported by comparison of the CO2 trend with the trend in the ocean heat content. The phase relationships between the CO2 and temperature are more complicated after the removal of the trends. The phase relationships are chaotic on time scales shorter than the annual time scale. During 1986-2008, the atmospheric CO2 changed in an-ti-phase with the global temperature. The phase relationship reversed in 1979 and after 2010. The atmospheric CO2 was in-phase with the global temperature on the El Nino time scale (2.3 - 7 years) except during very strong El Nino years in 1991-1999 when CO2 led the global temperature.
The study of dynamic relationships between the atmospheric carbon dioxide and the Earth’s global temperature in the current changing climate supported the notion that the trend in the global temperature followed the trend in the atmospheric CO2 before the climate hiatus that started in the beginning of the 21st century. During the hiatus period, the heat trapped by the atmospheric CO2 is going mostly to the ocean. This conclusion is supported by comparison of the CO2 trend with the trend in the ocean heat content. The phase relationships between the CO2 and temperature are more complicated after the removal of the trends. The phase relationships are chaotic on time scales shorter than the annual time scale. During 1986-2008, the atmospheric CO2 changed in an-ti-phase with the global temperature. The phase relationship reversed in 1979 and after 2010. The atmospheric CO2 was in-phase with the global temperature on the El Nino time scale (2.3 - 7 years) except during very strong El Nino years in 1991-1999 when CO2 led the global temperature.
Cite this paper
Ruzmaikin, A. and Byalko, A. (2015) On the Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature. American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 181-186. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.43014.
Ruzmaikin, A. and Byalko, A. (2015) On the Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature. American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 181-186. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.43014.
References
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.03.011 [6] Goswami, B., Marwan, N., Feulner, G. and Kurths, J. (2013) How Do Global Temperature Drivers Influence Each Other? European Physical Journal Special Topics, 222, 861-873.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2013-01889-8 [7] Byalko, A.V. (2013) Spectra of Climate Perturbations. Priroda, 9, 17-26. [8] Dickey, J.O., Marcus, S.L. and de Viron, O. (2003) Coherent Interannual and Decadal Variations in the Atmosphere-Ocean System. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1573.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10156-011-0025-8 [11] Dlugokency, E.J., Masarie, K.A., Lang, P.M. and Tans, P.P. (2013) NOAA Greenhouse Gas Reference from Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. [12] Ruzmaikin, A., Aumann, H.H. and Pagano, T.S. (2012) Patterns of CO2 Variability from Global Satellite Data. Journal of Climate, 25, 6383-6393.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00223.1 [13] Marwan, N., Romano, M.C., Thiel, M. and Kurths, J. (2007) Recurrence Plots for the Analysis of Complex Systems. Physics Reports, 438, 237-329.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2006.11.001 [14] Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. and Jevrejeva, S. (2004) Application of the Cross Wavelet Transform and Wavelet Coherence to Geophysical Time Series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, 561-566.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004
[1] Keeling, C.D., Whorf, T.P., Walen, M. and van der Plicht, J. (1995) Interannual Extremes in the Rate of Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide since 1980. Nature, 375, 666-670.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/375666a0 [2] Le Quere, L., et al. (2014) Global Carbon Budget 2013. Earth System Science Data, 6, 235-263.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014 [3] (2014) Hiatus in Context. Nature Geoscience, 7, 154.
www.natute.com/naturegeoscience [4] Humlum, O., Solheim, J.-E. and Stordahl, K. (2013) The Phase Relation between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 51-69.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008 [5] Richardson, K. (2013) Comment on “The Phase Relation between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature” by Humlum, Stordahl and Solheim. Global and Planetary Change, 107, 226-228.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.03.011 [6] Goswami, B., Marwan, N., Feulner, G. and Kurths, J. (2013) How Do Global Temperature Drivers Influence Each Other? European Physical Journal Special Topics, 222, 861-873.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2013-01889-8 [7] Byalko, A.V. (2013) Spectra of Climate Perturbations. Priroda, 9, 17-26. [8] Dickey, J.O., Marcus, S.L. and de Viron, O. (2003) Coherent Interannual and Decadal Variations in the Atmosphere-Ocean System. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1573.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016763 [9] Sidorenkov, N.S. (2009) The Interaction between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes. Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9783527627721 [10] Abarca-del-Rio, R., Gambis, D. and Salstein, D. (2012) Intrdecadial Oscillations in Atmospheric Angular Momentum Variations. Journal of Geodetic Science, 2, 42-52.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10156-011-0025-8 [11] Dlugokency, E.J., Masarie, K.A., Lang, P.M. and Tans, P.P. (2013) NOAA Greenhouse Gas Reference from Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. [12] Ruzmaikin, A., Aumann, H.H. and Pagano, T.S. (2012) Patterns of CO2 Variability from Global Satellite Data. Journal of Climate, 25, 6383-6393.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00223.1 [13] Marwan, N., Romano, M.C., Thiel, M. and Kurths, J. (2007) Recurrence Plots for the Analysis of Complex Systems. Physics Reports, 438, 237-329.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2006.11.001 [14] Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. and Jevrejeva, S. (2004) Application of the Cross Wavelet Transform and Wavelet Coherence to Geophysical Time Series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, 561-566.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004