CWEEE  Vol.4 No.2 , April 2015
Simulation of Long Term Characteristics of Annual Rainfall in Selected Areas in Saudi Arabia
Author(s) Nidhal Saada*
ABSTRACT
Simulation experiments with different stochastic models were conducted to investigate the long term characteristics of rainfall in Saudi Arabia using selected Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. The results of the study indicated that the ARMA models were able to capture the long term statistics for one of the rainfall records investigated (Surat Obeida). However, the other rainfall record investigated in this study (Malaki) was characterized with a slow and long decaying structure and a high Hurst coefficient indicating the possibility of non-stationarity of the data. Trend analysis (Pettitt test) of the data revealed that a break point or a shift in the record happened around 1983 at Malaki. As a result, ARMA models should not be used in modeling the rainfall data at that station.

Cite this paper
Saada, N. (2015) Simulation of Long Term Characteristics of Annual Rainfall in Selected Areas in Saudi Arabia. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 4, 18-24. doi: 10.4236/cweee.2015.42003.
References
[1]   Salas, J.D., Saada, N.M. and Chung, C.H. (1995) Stochastic Modeling and Simulation of the Nile River System Monthly Flows. Tech.Rep.5, Colo.State Univ., Fort Collins.

[2]   Golder, J., Joelson, M., Neel, M. and DI Pietro, L. (2014) A Time Fractional Model to Represent Rainfall Process. Water Science and Engineering, 7, 32-40.

[3]   Fortin, V., Perreault, L. and Salas, J.D. (2004) Retrospective Analysis and Forecasting of Streamflows Using a Shifting Level Model. Journal of Hydrology, 296, 135-163.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.016

[4]   Rehman, S. (2009) Study of Saudi Arabian Climatic Conditions Using Hurst Exponent and Climatic Predictability Index. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals Journal, 39, 499-509.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.01.079

[5]   Elfeki, A., Al-Amri, N. and Bahrawi, J. (2013) Analysis of Annual Rainfall Climate Variability in Saudi Arabia by Using Spectral Density Function. International Journal of Water Resources and Arid Environments, 4, 205-212.

[6]   Almazroui, M., Nazrul Islam, M., Athar, H., Jones, P.D. and Ashfaqur Rahman, M. (2012) Recent Climate Change in the Arabian Peninsula: Annual Rainfall and Temperature Analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978-2009. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 953-966.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3446

[7]   Salas, J.D., Saada, N.M., Chung, C.H., Lane, W.L. and Frevert, D.K. (2000) Stochastic Analysis, Modeling and Simulation (SAMS) Version 2000—User’s Manual. Colorado State University, Fort Collins.

[8]   Sveinsson, O.G.B., Salas, J.D., Lane, W.L. and Frevert, D.K. (2007) Stochastic Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (SAMS Version 2007) User’s Manual. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins.

[9]   Mesa, O.J., Gupta, V.K. and O’Connell, P.E. (2012) Dynamical System Exploration of the Hurst Phenomenon in Simple Climate Models. American Geophysical Union, 196, 209-230.

 
 
Top