The Gravity Environment of Zhouqu Debris Flow of August 2010 and Its Implication for Future Recurrence
Author(s)
Diandong Ren1*,
Lance M. Leslie2,
Xinyi Shen3,
Yang Hong3*,
Qingyun Duan4,
Rezaul Mahmood5,
Yun Li6,
Gang Huang7,
Weidong Guo8,
Mervyn J. Lynch9
Affiliation(s)
1 Department of Imaging and Applied Physics, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. 2 School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA. 3 School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA. 4 College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. 5 Department of Geography and Geology, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky, USA. 6 CSIRO Leeuwin Centre, Floreat, Australia. 7 IAP, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 8 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China. 9 Australian Sustainable Development Institute, Perth, Australia.
1 Department of Imaging and Applied Physics, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. 2 School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA. 3 School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA. 4 College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. 5 Department of Geography and Geology, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky, USA. 6 CSIRO Leeuwin Centre, Floreat, Australia. 7 IAP, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 8 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China. 9 Australian Sustainable Development Institute, Perth, Australia.
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide because of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the frequency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bedrock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a surrogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured regional mass changes as an indication of bedrock cracking, through the groundwater as the nexus. The GRACE measurements indicate a region (to the north east of TP) of persistent mass gain (started well before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake), likely due to increased groundwater percolation. While in the neighboring agricultural region further to the north east, there are signal of decreased fossil water reservoir. The imposed stress fields by large scale increase/decrease groundwater may contribute to future geological instability of this region. Zhouqu locates right on the saddle of the gravity field anomaly. The region surrounding the Bay of Bangle (to the southeast of TP) has a similar situation. To investigate future changes in extreme precipitation, the other key player for debris flows, the “pseudo-climate change” experiments of a weather model forced by climate model provided perturbations on the thermal fields are performed and endangered locations are identified. In the future warmer climate, extreme precipitation will be more severe and debris will be more frequent and severe.
This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide because of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the frequency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bedrock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a surrogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured regional mass changes as an indication of bedrock cracking, through the groundwater as the nexus. The GRACE measurements indicate a region (to the north east of TP) of persistent mass gain (started well before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake), likely due to increased groundwater percolation. While in the neighboring agricultural region further to the north east, there are signal of decreased fossil water reservoir. The imposed stress fields by large scale increase/decrease groundwater may contribute to future geological instability of this region. Zhouqu locates right on the saddle of the gravity field anomaly. The region surrounding the Bay of Bangle (to the southeast of TP) has a similar situation. To investigate future changes in extreme precipitation, the other key player for debris flows, the “pseudo-climate change” experiments of a weather model forced by climate model provided perturbations on the thermal fields are performed and endangered locations are identified. In the future warmer climate, extreme precipitation will be more severe and debris will be more frequent and severe.
KEYWORDS
Groundwater Fluctuation, Gravity Satellite Measurements, Storm Triggered Landslides and Flash Floods, Climate Change
Groundwater Fluctuation, Gravity Satellite Measurements, Storm Triggered Landslides and Flash Floods, Climate Change
Cite this paper
Ren, D. , Leslie, L. , Shen, X. , Hong, Y. , Duan, Q. , Mahmood, R. , Li, Y. , Huang, G. , Guo, W. and Lynch, M. (2015) The Gravity Environment of Zhouqu Debris Flow of August 2010 and Its Implication for Future Recurrence. International Journal of Geosciences, 6, 317-325. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2015.64025.
Ren, D. , Leslie, L. , Shen, X. , Hong, Y. , Duan, Q. , Mahmood, R. , Li, Y. , Huang, G. , Guo, W. and Lynch, M. (2015) The Gravity Environment of Zhouqu Debris Flow of August 2010 and Its Implication for Future Recurrence. International Journal of Geosciences, 6, 317-325. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2015.64025.
References
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709942003 [12] Zhao, M. and Running, S. (2010) Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 through 2009. Science, 329, 940-943.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1192666 [13] Ren, D. (2014) Storm-Triggered Landslides in Warmer Climates. Springer, New York. [14] Ren, D. (2014) The Devastating Zhouqu Storm-Triggered Debris Flow of August 2010: Likely Causes and Possible Trends in a Future Warming Climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 119, 3643-3662. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020881 [15] Trenberth, K. (1999) Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change. Climatic Change, 42, 327-339. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005488920935 [16] Allen, M. and Ingram, W. (2002) Constraints on Future Changes in Climate and the Hydrologic Cycle. Nature, 419, 224-232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01092 [17] Karl, T. and Knight, R. (1998) Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 231-241.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3339.1 [20] Ren, D. (2015) Stress Fields in Granular Material and Implications for Performance of Robot Locomotion over Granular Media. Journal of Advances in Physics, 8, 2005-2009. [21] Emori, S. and Brown, S. (2005) Dynamic and Thermodynamic Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation under Changed Climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L17706.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272
[1] Sidle, R. (1992) A Theoretical Model of the Effects of Timber Harvesting on Slope Stability. Water Resources Research, 28, 1897-1910. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/92WR00804 [2] Iverson, R. (1997) The Physics of Debris Flows. Review of Geophysics, 35, 245-296.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/97RG00426 [3] Skamarock, W.C., et al. (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. Tech. Rep. NCAR/ TN-4751STR, 113 p. [4] Ren, D., Leslie, L. and Karoly, D. (2008) Mudslide Risk Analysis Using a New Constitutive Relationship for Granular Flow. Earth Interactions, 12, 1-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007EI237.1 [5] Ren, D., Wang, J., Fu, R., Karoly, D., Hong, Y., Leslie, L., Fu, C. and Huang, G. (2009) Mudslide Caused Ecosystem Degradation Following the Wenchuan Earthquake 2008. Geophysical Research Letters, 36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036702 [6] Ren, D., Leslie, L., Fu, R., Leslie, L.M. and Dickinson, R. (2011) Predicting Storm-Triggered Landslides and Ecological Consequences. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 129-139.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3017.1 [7] Lackmann, G. (2013) The South-Central US flood of May 2010, Present and Future. Journal of Climate, 26, 4688-4709. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00392.1 [8] Famiglietti, J. and Rodell, M. (2013) Water in the Balance. Environmental Science, 340, 1300-1301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1236460 [9] Voss, K., Famiglietti, J., Lo, M., de Linage, C., Rodell, M. and Swenson, S. (2013) Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region. Water Resources Research, 49, 904-914.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20078 [10] Scanlon, B.R., Faunt, C.C., Longuevergne, L., Reedy, R.C., Alley, W.M., McGuire, V.L. and McMahon, P.B. (2012) Groundwater Depletion and Sustainability of Irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 9320-9325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1200311109 [11] Harrold, T. (1973) Mechanisms Influencing the Distribution of Precipitation within Baroclinic Disturbances. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 99, 232-251.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709942003 [12] Zhao, M. and Running, S. (2010) Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 through 2009. Science, 329, 940-943.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1192666 [13] Ren, D. (2014) Storm-Triggered Landslides in Warmer Climates. Springer, New York. [14] Ren, D. (2014) The Devastating Zhouqu Storm-Triggered Debris Flow of August 2010: Likely Causes and Possible Trends in a Future Warming Climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 119, 3643-3662. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020881 [15] Trenberth, K. (1999) Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change. Climatic Change, 42, 327-339. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005488920935 [16] Allen, M. and Ingram, W. (2002) Constraints on Future Changes in Climate and the Hydrologic Cycle. Nature, 419, 224-232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01092 [17] Karl, T. and Knight, R. (1998) Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 231-241.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0231:STOPAF>2.0.CO;2 [18] Semenov, V. and Bengtsson, L. (2002) Secular Trends in Daily Precipitation Characteristics: Greenhouse Gas Simulation with a Coupled AOGCM. Climate Dynamics, 19, 123-140.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0218-4 [19] Groisman, P.Ya., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R., Hegerl, G.C. and Razuvaev, V.N. (2005) Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record. Journal of Climate, 18, 1326-1350.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3339.1 [20] Ren, D. (2015) Stress Fields in Granular Material and Implications for Performance of Robot Locomotion over Granular Media. Journal of Advances in Physics, 8, 2005-2009. [21] Emori, S. and Brown, S. (2005) Dynamic and Thermodynamic Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation under Changed Climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L17706.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272