Hari Prasad Dasari^1*, Venkata Srinivas Challa²

Show more
¹ Physical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
² Radiological Safety and Environment Group, Indira Gandhi Center for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, India.
Show less

Abstract: In recent years long-term precipitation trends on a regional scale have been given emphasis due to the impacts of global warming on regional hydrology. In this study, regional precipitation trends are simulated over the Europe continent for a 60-year period in 1950-2010 using an advanced regional model, WRF, to study extreme precipitation events over Europe. The model runs continuously for each year during the period at a horizontal resolution of 25 km with initial/ boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2.5 degree reanalysis data sets. The E-OBS 0.25 degree rainfall observation analysis is used for model validation. Results indicate that the model could reproduce the spatial annual rainfall pattern over Europe with low amounts (250 - 750 mm) in Iberian Peninsula, moderate to large amounts (750 - 1500 mm) in central, eastern and northeastern parts of Europe and extremely heavy falls (1500 - 2000 mm) in hilly areas of Alps with a slight overestimation in Alps and underestimation in other parts of Europe. The regional model integrations showed increasing errors (mean absolute errors) and decreasing correlations with increasing time scale (daily to seasonal). Rainfall is simulated relatively better in Iberian Peninsula, northwest and central parts of Europe. A large spatial variability with the highest number of wet days over eastern, central Europe and Alps (~200 days/year) and less number of wet days over Iberian Peninsula (≤150 days/year) is also found in agreement with observations. The model could simulate the spatial rainfall climate variability reasonably well with low rainfall days (1 - 10 mm/days) in almost all zones, heavy rainfall events in western, northern, southeastern hilly and coastal zones and extremely heavy rainfall events in northern coastal zones. An increasing trend of heavy rainfall in central, southern and southeastern parts, a decreasing trend in Iberian Peninsula and a steady trend in other zones are found. Overall, the simulated rainfall climatology was reproduced well for the low and heavy rainfall followed by very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall in Europe and the simulation is better in the Iberian west coast, central northern Europe and Alps Mountains.

Keywords: Regional Climate, Rainfall, Europe, WRF-ARW, Threat Score

Cite this paper: Dasari, H. and Challa, V. (2015) A Study of Precipitation Climatology and Its Variability over Europe Using an Advanced Regional Model (WRF). American Journal of Climate Change, 4, 22-39. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.41003.

References

[1]   mospheric Carbon Dioxide Since 1980. Nature, 375, 666-670.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/375666a0

[2]   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1999) Climate Change. A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Report. Geneva, 64 p.

[3]   Harries, J.E., Brindley, H.E., Sagoo, P.J. and Bantges, R.J. (2001) Increases in Greenhouse Forcing Inferred from the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997. Nature, 410, 355-357.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35066553

[4]   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate Change. Volumes 1-3, Third Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[5]   Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L. (1999) Introduction to Special Section: Regional Climate Modeling Revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 6335-6352.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/98JD02072

[6]   Wang, Y., Sen, O.L. and Wang, B. (2003) A Highly Resolved Regional Climate Model (IPRCRegCM) and Its Simulation of the 1998 Severe Precipitation Event over China. Part I: Model Description and Verification of Simulation. Journal of Climate, 16, 1721-1738. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1721:AHRRCM>2.0.CO;2

[7]   Christensen, J.H. and Christensen, O.B. (2003) Severe Summer Time Flooding in Europe. Nature, 421, 805-806.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/421805a

[8]   Mass, C.F., Ovens, D., Westrick, K. and Colle, B.A. (2002) Does Increasing Horizontal Resolution Produce More Skillful Forecasts? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 407-430.

[9]   Salathé, E.P., Steed, R., Mass, C.F. and Zahn, P.H. (2008) A High-Resolution Climate Model for the United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale Feedbacks and Local Responses to Climate Change. Journal of Climate, 21, 5708-5726.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2090.1

[10]   Castro, M., Gallardo, C., Jylha, K. and Tuomenvirta, H. (2007) The Use of a Climate-Type Classification for Assessing Climate Change Effects in Europe from an Ensemble of Nine Regional Climate Models. Climatic Change, 81, 329-341.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9224-1

[11]   Rummukainen, M. (2010) State-of-the-Art with Regional Climate Models. Vol. 1, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Hoboken, 82-96.

[12]   Kato, H., Nishizawa, K., Hirakuchi, H., Kadokura, S., Oshima, N. and Giorgi, F. (2001) Performance of RegCM2.5/ NCAR-CSM Nested System for the Simulation of Climate Change in East Asia Caused by Global Warming. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 79, 99-121.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.79.99

[13]   Nicolini, M., Salio, P., Katzfey, J.J., McGregor, J.L. and Saulo, A.C. (2002) January and July Regional Climate Simulation over South America. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 4637.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000736

[14]   Mearns, L.O., Arritt, R., Biner, S., Bukovsky, M.S., McGinnis, S., Sain, S., Caya, D., Correia Jr., J., Flory, D., Gutowski, W., Takle, E.S., Jones, R., Leung, R., Moufouma-Okia, W., McDaniel, L., Nunes, A.M.B., Qian, Y., Roads, J., Sloan, L. and Snyder, M. (2012) The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 1337-1362.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00223.1

[15]   Giorgi, F. and Anyah, R.O. (2012) The Road towards RegCM4. Climate Research, 52, 3-6.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01089

[16]   Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Solmon, F., Mariotti, L., Sylla, M.B., Bi, X., et al. (2012) RegCM4: Model Description and Preliminary Tests over Multiple CORDEX Domains. Climate Research, 52, 7-29.

[17]   Pielke Sr., R.A. (2001) Influence of the Spatial Distribution of Vegetation and Soils on the Prediction of Cumulus Convective Rainfall. Reviews of Geophysics, 39, 151-177.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999RG000072

[18]   Pielke Sr., R.A. (2001) Earth System Modeling—An Integrated Assessment Tool for Environmental Studies. In: Matsuno, T. and Kida, H., Eds., Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, Terra Scientific, Tokyo, 311-337.

[19]   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York.

[20]   Christensen, J.H., Carter, T.R., Rummukainen, M. and Amanatidis, G. (2007) Evaluating the Performance and Utility of Regional Climate Models: The PRUDENCE Project. Climatic Change, 81, 1-6.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6

[21]   Takle, E.S., et al. (1999) Project to Inter Compare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS): Description and Initial Results. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 19443-19462.

[22]   Frei, C., Scholl, R., Schmidli, J., Fukutome, S. and Vidale, P.L. (2005) Future Change of Precipitation Extremes in Europe: An Intercomparison of Scenarios from Regional Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, 4124-4137.

[23]   Fu, C., Wang, S.Y., Xiong, Z., Gutowski, W.J., Lee, D.K., et al. (2005) Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 257-266.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-2-257

[24]   Van der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J.F.B. (2009) ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and Its Impacts: Summry of Research and Results from ENSEMBLES Project. Met Office Hadley Center, FitzRoy Road, Exter EX1 3PB.

[25]   Christensen, J.H., Kjellstrom, E., Giorgi, F., Lenderink, G. and Rummukainen, M. (2010) Weight Assignment in Regional Climate Models. Climate Research, 44, 179-194.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00916

[26]   Kjellstrom, E., Boberg, F., Castro, M., Christensen, J.H., Nikulin, G. and Sanchez, E. (2010) Daily and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Statistics as Performance Indicators for Regional Climate Models. Climate Research, 44, 135-150.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00932

[27]   Rauscher, S.A., Coppola, E., Piani, C. and Giorgi, F. (2010) Resolution Effect of Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation over Europe. Part I: Seasonal. Climate Dynamics, 35, 685-711.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0607-7

[28]   Lorenz, P. and Jacob, D. (2010) Validation of Temperature Trends in the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Model Runs Driven by ERA40. Climate Research, 44, 167-177.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00973

[29]   Boberg, F., Berg, P., Thejll, P., Gutowski, W.J. and Christensen, J.H. (2010) Improved Confidence in Climate Change Projections of Precipitation Further Evaluated Using Daily Statistics from ENSEMBLES Models. Climate Dynamics, 35, 1509-1520.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

[30]   Sanchez-Gomez, E., Somot, S. and Déqué, M. (2009) Ability of an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models to Reproduce Weather Regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the Period 1961-2000. Climate Dynamics, 33, 723-736.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0502-7

[31]   Lenderink, G. (2010) Exploring Metrics of Extreme Daily Precipitation in a Large Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations. Climate Research, 44, 151-166.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00946

[32]   Nikulin, G., Kjellstrom, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A. (2011) Evaluation and Future Projections of Temperature, Precipitation and Wind Extremes over Europe in an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations. Tellus, 63, 41-55.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x

[33]   Herrera, S., Fita, L., Fernandez, J. and Gutiérrez, J.M. (2010) Evaluation of the Mean and Extreme Precipitation Regimes from the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Multimodel Simulations over Spain. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D21117.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013936

[34]   Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J., Ancell, R., Pons, M., Frias, M. and Fernandez, J. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50-Year High-Resolution Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology, 32, 74-85.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2256

[35]   Soares, P.M.M., Cardoso, R.M., Miranda, P.M.A., Viterbo, P. and Belo-Pereira, M. (2012) Assessment of the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models in the Representation of Precipitation Variability and Extremes over Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016768

[36]   Belo-Pereira, M., Dutra, E. and Viterbo, P. (2011) Evaluation of Global Precipitation Data Sets over the Iberian Peninsula. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D20101.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015481

[37]   Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D.O., Barker, D.M., Duda, M.G., Huang, X.Y., Wang, W. and Powers, J.G. (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-475+STR. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder.

[38]   Heikkila, U., Sandvik, A. and Sorterberg, A. (2010) Dynamical Downscaling of ERA-40 in Complex Terrain Using WRF Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 36, 845-866.

[39]   Soares, P.M.M., Cardoso, R.M., Miranda, P.M.A., Medeiros, J., Belo-Pereira, M. and Espirito-Santo, F. (2012) WRF High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of ERA-Interim for Portugal. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2497-2522.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1315-2

[40]   Argueso, D., Hidalgo-Munoz, J.M., Gamiz-Fortis, S.R., Esteban-Parra, M.J., Dudhia, J. and Castro-Diez, Y. (2011) Evaluation of WRF Parameterizations for Climate Studies over Southern Spain Using a Multistep Regionalization. Journal of Climate, 24, 5633-5651.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00073.1

[41]   Argueso, D., Hidalgo-Munoz, J.M., Gamiz-Fortis, S.R., Esteban-Parra, M.J. and Castro-Diez, Y. (2012) Evaluation of WRF Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Spain: Present Climate (1970-99). Journal of Climate, 25, 4883-4897.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00276.1

[42]   Argueso, D., Hidalgo-Munoz, J.M., Gamiz-Fortis, S.R., Esteban-Parra, M.J. and Castro-Diez, Y. (2012) High-Resolution Projections of Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Spain Using the WRF Model (2070-2099 vs. 1970-1999). Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D12108.

[43]   Dasari, H.P., Salgado, R., Perdigao, J. and Challa, V.S. (2014) A Regional Climate Simulation Study Using WRF-ARW Model over Europe and Evaluation for Extreme Temperature Weather Events. International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, Article ID: 704079, 22 p.

[44]   Hari Prasad, D., Araujo, M.B., Pozo, I. and Ferry, P. (2014) A Regional Climate Change of Summer Temperatures over Iberian Peninsula. Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences.

[45]   Hari Prasad, D., Wibig, J. and Repaz, M. (2010) Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006). Advances in Meteorology, 2010, Article ID: 619478.

[46]   Haylock, M., Hofstra, N., Klein-Tank, A., Klok, E.J., Jones, P. and New, M. (2008) A European Daily High-Resolution Gridded Data Set of Surface Temperature and Precipitation for 1950-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D20119.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201

[47]   Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 437-471.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2

[48]   Murphy, A.H. and Winkler, R.L. (1987) A General Framework for Forecast Verification. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1330-1338.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1330:AGFFFV>2.0.CO;2

[49]   Willmott, C.J. (1982) Some Comments on the Evaluation of Model Performance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 63, 1309-1313.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1982)063<1309:SCOTEO>2.0.CO;2

[50]   Willmott, C.J., Ackleson, S.G., Davis, R.E., Feddema, J.J., Klink, K.M., Legates, D.R., O’Donnell, J. and Rowe, C.M. (1985) Statistics for the Evaluation and Comparison of Models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 90, 8995-9005.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC05p08995

[51]   Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2003) Forecast Verification. A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Hoboken, 240 p.

[52]   Wilks, D. (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Elsevier, San Diego.