Modeling Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation: An International Market Estimation Method Perspective
Affiliation(s)
1 School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan, China. 2 Lingnan (University) College, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
1 School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan, China. 2 Lingnan (University) College, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
ABSTRACT
This paper describes the first part of my PhD research project where Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation Long-Term Relationship with its explanatory variables is investigated. We employ a panel of 19 African countries for a period that spans from 1994 to 2012. We consider the long-term relationship that may exist between the iron and steel importations and the explanatory variables used (GDP per capita, investment in infrastructure, real effective exchange rate, and the number of urban population). The empirical analysis is divided in three parts in this study. In the first part, the panel unit root tests and stationary tests revealed that all variables have a unit root; in first differences, they are stationary, these variables are integrated of order 1 or I (1) and the level of the variables are I (1). In the second part, the different cointegration tests conducted between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables result in the confirmation of the fact that they are cointegrated. In the third part, an estimation of the long-run relationship is carried out with Panel Error Correction Modeling (ECM) using Pooled Mean Group Regression Methods. The importations of iron and steel are positively correlated with all the independent variables of the model. All estimated coefficients are positive and significant at 1% level of significance. The usual determinants of importations (demand factor and factor price competitiveness) are significant in the modeling of iron and steel importations and signs are consistent with expectations except the real effective exchange rate.
This paper describes the first part of my PhD research project where Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation Long-Term Relationship with its explanatory variables is investigated. We employ a panel of 19 African countries for a period that spans from 1994 to 2012. We consider the long-term relationship that may exist between the iron and steel importations and the explanatory variables used (GDP per capita, investment in infrastructure, real effective exchange rate, and the number of urban population). The empirical analysis is divided in three parts in this study. In the first part, the panel unit root tests and stationary tests revealed that all variables have a unit root; in first differences, they are stationary, these variables are integrated of order 1 or I (1) and the level of the variables are I (1). In the second part, the different cointegration tests conducted between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables result in the confirmation of the fact that they are cointegrated. In the third part, an estimation of the long-run relationship is carried out with Panel Error Correction Modeling (ECM) using Pooled Mean Group Regression Methods. The importations of iron and steel are positively correlated with all the independent variables of the model. All estimated coefficients are positive and significant at 1% level of significance. The usual determinants of importations (demand factor and factor price competitiveness) are significant in the modeling of iron and steel importations and signs are consistent with expectations except the real effective exchange rate.
KEYWORDS
Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation, Panel Unit Roots, Panel Cointegrations, Panel Error Correction Modeling (ECM), Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Regression Methods
Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation, Panel Unit Roots, Panel Cointegrations, Panel Error Correction Modeling (ECM), Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Regression Methods
Cite this paper
Ravelomanana, F. , Yan, L. , Mahazomanana, C. and Miarisoa, L. (2014) Modeling Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation: An International Market Estimation Method Perspective. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 4, 799-815. doi: 10.4236/ajibm.2014.412086.
Ravelomanana, F. , Yan, L. , Mahazomanana, C. and Miarisoa, L. (2014) Modeling Africa’s Demand for Iron and Steel Importation: An International Market Estimation Method Perspective. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 4, 799-815. doi: 10.4236/ajibm.2014.412086.
References
[1] Jeannet, J.P. and Hennessey, H.D. (1998) International Marketing Management: Strategies and Cases. Houghton Mifflin, Boston. [2] Brewer, P. (2000) International Market Selection: Developing a Model from Australian Case Studies. International Business Review, 10, 155-174. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(00)00049-4 [3] Papadopoulos, N. and Denis, J.E. (1988) Inventory, Taxonomy and Assessment of Methods for International Market Selection. International Marketing Review, 5, 38-51.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eb008357 [4] Pezeshkpur, C. (1979) Systematic Approach to Finding Export Opportunities. Harvard Business Review, 57, 182-196. [5] Douglas, S.P. and Craig, C.S. (1992) Advances in International Marketing. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 9, 291-318. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-8116(92)90002-3 [6] Steenkamp, J.E.M. and Ter Hofstede, F. (2002) International Market Segmentations: Issues and Perspectives. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 19, 185-213.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8116(02)00076-9 [7] Shankarmahesh, M.N., Olsen, H.W. and Honeycutt, E.D. (2005) A Dominant Product-Dominant Country Framework of Industrial Export Segmentation. Industrial Marketing Management, 34, 203-210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2004.09.002 [8] Sakarya, S., Eckman, M. and Hyllegard, K.H. (2007) Market Selection for International Expansion: Assessing Opportunities in Emerging Markets. International Marketing Review, 24, 208-238.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02651330710741820 [9] Kumar, V., Stam, A. and Joachimsthaler, E.A. (1993) An Interactive Multi-Criteria Approach to Identifying Potential Foreign Markets. Journal of International Marketing, 2, 29-52. [10] Ayal, I. and Zif, J. (1978) Competitive Market Choice Strategies in Multinational Marketing. Columbia Journal of World Business, 13, 72-81. [11] Davidson, W.H. (1983) Market Similarity and Market Selection: Implications for International Marketing Strategy. Journal of Business Research, 11, 439-456. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0148-2963(83)90004-8 [12] Cavusgil, S.T. (1985) Guidelines for Export Market Research. Business Horizons, 28, 27-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(85)90082-5 [13] Hoffman, J.J. (1997) A Two Stage Model for the Introduction of Products into International Markets. Journal of Global Marketing, 11, 67-86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J042v11n01_05 [14] Andersen, P.H. and Strandskov, J. (1998) International Market Selection: A Cognitive Mapping Perspective. Journal of Global Marketing, 11, 65-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J042v11n03_05 [15] Andersen, O. and Buvik, A. (2002) Firms’ Internationalisation and Alternative Approaches to the International Customer/Market Selection. International Business Review, 11, 347-363.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(01)00064-6 [16] Rahman, S.H. (2003) Modelling of International Market Selection Process: A Qualitative Study of Successful Australian International Businesses. Qualitative Market Research: An International Journal, 6, 119-132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/13522750310470127 [17] Alon, I. (2004) International Market Selection for a Small Enterprise: A Case Study in International Entrepreneurship. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 69, 25-33. [18] Ozorhon, B., Dikmen, I. and Birgonul, M.T. (2006) Case-Based Reasoning Model for International Market Selection. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132, 940-947.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:9(940) [19] Viviers, W. and Pearson, J.J.A.P. (2007) The Construction of a Decision Support Model for Evaluating and Identifying Realistic Export Opportunities in South Africa. Report Prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, May, 92 p. (Unpublished) [20] Viviers, W., Rossouw, R. and Steenkamp, E.A. (2009) The Sustainability of the DSM for Identifying Realistic Export Opportunities for South-Africa: 2007-2008. Report Prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, February, 105 p. (Unpublished) [21] Viviers, W., Steenkamp, E.A. and Rossouw, R. (2010) Identification Realistic Export Opportunities for South Africa: Application of a Decision Support Model (DSM) Using HS 6-Digit Level Product Data. Report Prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, September, 57 p. (Unpublished) [22] Green, R.T. and Allaway, A.W. (1985) Identification of Export Opportunities: A Shift-Share Approach. Journal of Marketing, 49, 83-88. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1251178 [23] Russow, L.C. and Ond, S.C. (1996) On the Way towards Developing a Global Screening Model. International Marketing Review, 13, 46-64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02651339610111344 [24] Papadopoulos, N., Chen, H. and Thomans, D.R. (2002) Toward a Tradeoff Model for International Market Selection. International Business Review, 11, 165-192.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(01)00054-3 [25] Freudenberg, M. and Paulmier, T. (2005) Export Potential Assessment in Vietnam. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [26] Freudenberg, M. and Paulmier, T. (2005) Export Potential Assessment in Lao PDR. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [27] Freudenberg, M., Paulmier, T., Bijl, B. and Ikezuki, T. (2007) Export Potential Assessment in Nepal. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [28] Freudenberg, M., Paulmier, T., Ikezuki, T. and Conte, K. (2008) Export Opportunity Scan for Jordan: Second Draft. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [29] Arnold, D.J. and Quelsh, J.A. (1998) New Strategies in Emerging Markets. Sloan Management Review, 40, 7-20. [30] Cavusgil, S.T. (1985) Guidelines for Export Market Research. Business Horizons, 28, 27-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(85)90082-5 [31] Cavusgil, S.T. (1997) Measuring the Potential of Emerging Markets: An Indexing Approach. Business Horizons, 40, 87-91. [32] Alon, I. (2004) International Market Selection for a Small Enterprise: A Case Study in International Entrepreneurship. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 69, 25-33. [33] Verno, C. (2008) The Trade Opportunity Matrix (TOM): An Overview of Canadian Export Opportunities. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/TOM__Final_Report_Dec2008_e.pdf [34] Banerjee, A. (1999) Panel Data Unit Roots and Co-Integration: An Overview. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 607-629. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.12 [35] Boumahdi, R. and Thomas, A. (1991) Testing for Unit Roots Using Panel Data. Economics Letters, 37, 77-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(91)90246-H [36] Holden, D. and Perman, R. (1994) Unit Roots and Co-Integration for the Economist. In: Rao, B.B., Ed., Co-Integration for the Applied Economist, St. Martin’s Press, New York. [37] Levin, A., Lin, C.F. and Chu, C. (2002) Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 [38] Breitung, J. (2000) The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161-177. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6 [39] Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2003) Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 [40] Fisher, F.M. (1970) Tests of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note. Econometrica, 38, 361-366. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913018 [41] Fuller, W.A. and Battese, G.E. (1974) Estimation of Linear Models with Cross-Error Structure. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 67-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90030-X [42] Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236 [43] Pedroni, P. (1999) Critical Values for Co-Integration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653-678.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14 [44] Pedroni, P. (2004) Panel Co-Integration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597-625.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073 [45] Kao, C. and Chiang, M.H. (2000) On the Estimation and Inference of a Co-Integrated Regression in Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179-222. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15007-8 [46] Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Co-Integrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press, Oxford. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0198774508.001.0001 [47] Maddala, G.S. and Wu, S. (1999) A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.13 [48] Granger, C.W.J. (1988) Causality, Co-Integration and Control. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 551-559. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90055-3 [49] Baltagi, B.H., Griffin, J.M. and Xiong, W. (2000) To Pool or Not to Pool: Homogeneous versus Heterogeneous Estimators Applied to Cigarette Demand. Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 117-126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465300558551 [50] Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. (1999) Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621-634.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
[1] Jeannet, J.P. and Hennessey, H.D. (1998) International Marketing Management: Strategies and Cases. Houghton Mifflin, Boston. [2] Brewer, P. (2000) International Market Selection: Developing a Model from Australian Case Studies. International Business Review, 10, 155-174. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(00)00049-4 [3] Papadopoulos, N. and Denis, J.E. (1988) Inventory, Taxonomy and Assessment of Methods for International Market Selection. International Marketing Review, 5, 38-51.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eb008357 [4] Pezeshkpur, C. (1979) Systematic Approach to Finding Export Opportunities. Harvard Business Review, 57, 182-196. [5] Douglas, S.P. and Craig, C.S. (1992) Advances in International Marketing. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 9, 291-318. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-8116(92)90002-3 [6] Steenkamp, J.E.M. and Ter Hofstede, F. (2002) International Market Segmentations: Issues and Perspectives. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 19, 185-213.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8116(02)00076-9 [7] Shankarmahesh, M.N., Olsen, H.W. and Honeycutt, E.D. (2005) A Dominant Product-Dominant Country Framework of Industrial Export Segmentation. Industrial Marketing Management, 34, 203-210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2004.09.002 [8] Sakarya, S., Eckman, M. and Hyllegard, K.H. (2007) Market Selection for International Expansion: Assessing Opportunities in Emerging Markets. International Marketing Review, 24, 208-238.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02651330710741820 [9] Kumar, V., Stam, A. and Joachimsthaler, E.A. (1993) An Interactive Multi-Criteria Approach to Identifying Potential Foreign Markets. Journal of International Marketing, 2, 29-52. [10] Ayal, I. and Zif, J. (1978) Competitive Market Choice Strategies in Multinational Marketing. Columbia Journal of World Business, 13, 72-81. [11] Davidson, W.H. (1983) Market Similarity and Market Selection: Implications for International Marketing Strategy. Journal of Business Research, 11, 439-456. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0148-2963(83)90004-8 [12] Cavusgil, S.T. (1985) Guidelines for Export Market Research. Business Horizons, 28, 27-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(85)90082-5 [13] Hoffman, J.J. (1997) A Two Stage Model for the Introduction of Products into International Markets. Journal of Global Marketing, 11, 67-86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J042v11n01_05 [14] Andersen, P.H. and Strandskov, J. (1998) International Market Selection: A Cognitive Mapping Perspective. Journal of Global Marketing, 11, 65-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/J042v11n03_05 [15] Andersen, O. and Buvik, A. (2002) Firms’ Internationalisation and Alternative Approaches to the International Customer/Market Selection. International Business Review, 11, 347-363.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(01)00064-6 [16] Rahman, S.H. (2003) Modelling of International Market Selection Process: A Qualitative Study of Successful Australian International Businesses. Qualitative Market Research: An International Journal, 6, 119-132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/13522750310470127 [17] Alon, I. (2004) International Market Selection for a Small Enterprise: A Case Study in International Entrepreneurship. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 69, 25-33. [18] Ozorhon, B., Dikmen, I. and Birgonul, M.T. (2006) Case-Based Reasoning Model for International Market Selection. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132, 940-947.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:9(940) [19] Viviers, W. and Pearson, J.J.A.P. (2007) The Construction of a Decision Support Model for Evaluating and Identifying Realistic Export Opportunities in South Africa. Report Prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, May, 92 p. (Unpublished) [20] Viviers, W., Rossouw, R. and Steenkamp, E.A. (2009) The Sustainability of the DSM for Identifying Realistic Export Opportunities for South-Africa: 2007-2008. Report Prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, February, 105 p. (Unpublished) [21] Viviers, W., Steenkamp, E.A. and Rossouw, R. (2010) Identification Realistic Export Opportunities for South Africa: Application of a Decision Support Model (DSM) Using HS 6-Digit Level Product Data. Report Prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, September, 57 p. (Unpublished) [22] Green, R.T. and Allaway, A.W. (1985) Identification of Export Opportunities: A Shift-Share Approach. Journal of Marketing, 49, 83-88. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1251178 [23] Russow, L.C. and Ond, S.C. (1996) On the Way towards Developing a Global Screening Model. International Marketing Review, 13, 46-64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02651339610111344 [24] Papadopoulos, N., Chen, H. and Thomans, D.R. (2002) Toward a Tradeoff Model for International Market Selection. International Business Review, 11, 165-192.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-5931(01)00054-3 [25] Freudenberg, M. and Paulmier, T. (2005) Export Potential Assessment in Vietnam. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [26] Freudenberg, M. and Paulmier, T. (2005) Export Potential Assessment in Lao PDR. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [27] Freudenberg, M., Paulmier, T., Bijl, B. and Ikezuki, T. (2007) Export Potential Assessment in Nepal. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [28] Freudenberg, M., Paulmier, T., Ikezuki, T. and Conte, K. (2008) Export Opportunity Scan for Jordan: Second Draft. (Unpublished Report of the International Trade Centre, Market Analysis Section) [29] Arnold, D.J. and Quelsh, J.A. (1998) New Strategies in Emerging Markets. Sloan Management Review, 40, 7-20. [30] Cavusgil, S.T. (1985) Guidelines for Export Market Research. Business Horizons, 28, 27-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(85)90082-5 [31] Cavusgil, S.T. (1997) Measuring the Potential of Emerging Markets: An Indexing Approach. Business Horizons, 40, 87-91. [32] Alon, I. (2004) International Market Selection for a Small Enterprise: A Case Study in International Entrepreneurship. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 69, 25-33. [33] Verno, C. (2008) The Trade Opportunity Matrix (TOM): An Overview of Canadian Export Opportunities. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/TOM__Final_Report_Dec2008_e.pdf [34] Banerjee, A. (1999) Panel Data Unit Roots and Co-Integration: An Overview. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 607-629. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.12 [35] Boumahdi, R. and Thomas, A. (1991) Testing for Unit Roots Using Panel Data. Economics Letters, 37, 77-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(91)90246-H [36] Holden, D. and Perman, R. (1994) Unit Roots and Co-Integration for the Economist. In: Rao, B.B., Ed., Co-Integration for the Applied Economist, St. Martin’s Press, New York. [37] Levin, A., Lin, C.F. and Chu, C. (2002) Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 [38] Breitung, J. (2000) The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161-177. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6 [39] Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2003) Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 [40] Fisher, F.M. (1970) Tests of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note. Econometrica, 38, 361-366. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913018 [41] Fuller, W.A. and Battese, G.E. (1974) Estimation of Linear Models with Cross-Error Structure. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 67-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90030-X [42] Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236 [43] Pedroni, P. (1999) Critical Values for Co-Integration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653-678.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14 [44] Pedroni, P. (2004) Panel Co-Integration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597-625.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073 [45] Kao, C. and Chiang, M.H. (2000) On the Estimation and Inference of a Co-Integrated Regression in Panel Data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179-222. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15007-8 [46] Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Co-Integrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press, Oxford. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0198774508.001.0001 [47] Maddala, G.S. and Wu, S. (1999) A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.13 [48] Granger, C.W.J. (1988) Causality, Co-Integration and Control. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 551-559. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90055-3 [49] Baltagi, B.H., Griffin, J.M. and Xiong, W. (2000) To Pool or Not to Pool: Homogeneous versus Heterogeneous Estimators Applied to Cigarette Demand. Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 117-126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465300558551 [50] Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. (1999) Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621-634.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156