Peng Shi^1,2*, Miao Wu², Xinxin Ma², Simin Qu², Xueyuan Qiao²

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¹ State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
² College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
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Abstract: Climate change and human activities have great implications for hydrological process and water projects planning. In order to evaluate the impacts on stream-flow, statistical methods and SWAT model are applied to this research. The results indicate that the abrupt change year (1965) of annual stream-flow is chosen as the split point of natural and human influenced (particularly reservoirs) periods. The calibrated SWAT model is proved to be applicable in this catchment and is used to simulate the monthly runoff which can be regarded as the natural runoff induced by climate change. A major finding of this study is that the reservoir regulations have apparently altered the monthly and seasonal stream-flow regimes. By quantifying the impacts of climate variation and human activities, the decreasing trend of annual stream-flow is found, and human activities are proved to be the dominant role in the catchment. This research improves our knowledge of hydrological responses to natural and artificial factors, and provides a better understanding for the future reservoir regulations.

Keywords: Trend and Saltation Analysis, SWAT Model, Climate Change, Human Activities, Stream-Flow

Cite this paper: Shi, P. , Wu, M. , Ma, X. , Qu, S. , Qiao, X. (2014) Stream-Flow Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 2, 68-78. doi: 10.4236/gep.2014.25010.

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