Assessing Vulnerability of Food Availability to Climate Change in Hai District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania
Affiliation(s)
1 Evangelical Lutheran Church in Tanzania, Arusha, Tanzania. 2 School of Life Sciences and Bio-Engineering, Nelson Mandela-African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania.
1 Evangelical Lutheran Church in Tanzania, Arusha, Tanzania. 2 School of Life Sciences and Bio-Engineering, Nelson Mandela-African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania.
ABSTRACT
Climate change has a large effect on agriculture sector and, consequently, on the food available for residents of Hai District and other regions of Tanzania. Based on four decades of climate data, this study assessed the impacts of climate change and its potential vulnerability on food availability in Hai District, Kilimanjaro region. The results from this study suggest an association between food crop production and variation in climate (temperature and rainfall) in Hai District. Considering the aspect of rainfall and temperature, we demonstrate that rainfall and temperature have significant relationship with maize and bean outputs. The rainfall had a strong positive association with maize and beans production and whereas temperature had inverse relationship with maize and beans yields. With the annual loss $0.04 million and $0.01 million per year from cattle and goats/sheep respectively and the additional annual loss of $29 million and $10.8 million from maize and bean crops respectively in Hai District during years of severe and prolonged droughts, our study highlighted how severe droughts can dramatically affect agriculture production and food security in the area. To mitigate climate change and provide effective adaptation measures, it is imperative to develop a broader research framework, which integrates bio-physical and socioeconomic aspects of food systems which addresses its vulnerability and thereby improve food security.
Climate change has a large effect on agriculture sector and, consequently, on the food available for residents of Hai District and other regions of Tanzania. Based on four decades of climate data, this study assessed the impacts of climate change and its potential vulnerability on food availability in Hai District, Kilimanjaro region. The results from this study suggest an association between food crop production and variation in climate (temperature and rainfall) in Hai District. Considering the aspect of rainfall and temperature, we demonstrate that rainfall and temperature have significant relationship with maize and bean outputs. The rainfall had a strong positive association with maize and beans production and whereas temperature had inverse relationship with maize and beans yields. With the annual loss $0.04 million and $0.01 million per year from cattle and goats/sheep respectively and the additional annual loss of $29 million and $10.8 million from maize and bean crops respectively in Hai District during years of severe and prolonged droughts, our study highlighted how severe droughts can dramatically affect agriculture production and food security in the area. To mitigate climate change and provide effective adaptation measures, it is imperative to develop a broader research framework, which integrates bio-physical and socioeconomic aspects of food systems which addresses its vulnerability and thereby improve food security.
Cite this paper
Lema, A. , Munishi, L. and Ndakidemi, P. (2014) Assessing Vulnerability of Food Availability to Climate Change in Hai District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 261-271. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.33025.
Lema, A. , Munishi, L. and Ndakidemi, P. (2014) Assessing Vulnerability of Food Availability to Climate Change in Hai District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 261-271. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.33025.
References
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2004.07.006 [11] High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE) (2012) Food Security and Climate Change: A Report by the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security Report No. 3, HLPE, Rome. [12] Burke, M.B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A. and Lobell, D.B. (2009) Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 20670-20674.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11258-005-9049-4 [19] Hemp, A. (2005) Climate Change-Driven Forest Fires Marginalizes the Ice Cap Wasting on Kilimanjaro. Global Change Biology, 11, 1013-1023.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00968.x [20] Agrawal, S., Moehner, A., Hemp, M., Valst, S., Hitz, J., Smith, H., Meena, S.M., Mwakifwamba, T. and Mwaipopo, O. U. (2003) Development and Climate Change in Tanzania: Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro. OECD, Paris. [21] Mary, A.L. and Majule, A.E. (2009) Impacts of Climate Change, Variability and Adaptation Strategies on Agriculture in Semi Arid Areas of Tanzania: The Case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3, 206-208. [22] Lobell, D.B. and Field, C.B. (2007) Global Scale Climate-Crop Yield Relationships and the Impacts of Recent Warming. Environmental Resources Letter, 2, Article ID: 014002. [23] Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M.J. (2009) Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to US Crop Yields under Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 15594-15598.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106 [24] Lobell, D.B. and Gourdji, S.M. (2012) The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity. Plant Physiology, 160, 1686-1697.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1104/pp.112.208298 [25] World Bank (2002) Climate Change Series. Agriculture and Rural Development Department, The World Bank Environment Department. [26] Easterling, W. (2007) Global Food Security under Climate Change. Pennsylvania State University, University Park.
[1] Scholes, R.J. and Biggs, R. (2004) Ecosystem Services in Southern Africa: A Regional Assessment. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria. [2] Gregory, P.J., Ingram, J.S.I. and Brklacich, M. (2005) Climate Change and Food Security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 360, 2139-2148.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1745 [3] Misselhorn, A. (2005) What Drives Food Insecurity in Southern Africa? A Meta-Analysis of Household Economy Studies. Global Environmental Change, 15, 33-42.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.11.003 [4] Oxfam (2012) Food Crisis in the Horn of Africa Progress Report July 2011-July 2012. Oxford OX2 7BY, UK. [5] World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2013) The Global Climate 2001-2010. A Decade of Climate Extremes Summary Report. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. [6] Wheeler, T. and von Braun, J. (2013) Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security. Science, 341, 508-513.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1239402 [7] United Republic of Tanzania (URT) (2001) Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS). Ministry of Agriculture, Dar-es Salaam. [8] United Republic of Tanzania (URT) (2012) Hai District Socio-Economic Profile. United Republic of Tanzania, Hai. [9] Maghimbi, S. (2007) Recent Changes in Crop Patterns in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania: The Decline of Coffee and the Rise of Maize and Rice African Study Monographs. African Study Monographs, Suppl. 35, 73-83. [10] Aggarwal, P.K., Joshi, P.K., Ingram, J.S.I. and Gupta, R.K. (2004) Adapting Food Systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plains to Global Environmental Change: Key Information Needs to Improve Policy Formulation. Environmental Science Policy, 7, 487-498.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2004.07.006 [11] High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE) (2012) Food Security and Climate Change: A Report by the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security Report No. 3, HLPE, Rome. [12] Burke, M.B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A. and Lobell, D.B. (2009) Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 20670-20674.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106 [13] Gregory, P.J., Johnson, S.N., Newton, A.C. and Ingram, J.S. (2009) Integrating Pests and Pathogens into the Climate Change/Food Security Debate. Journal of Experimental Botany, 60, 2827-2838.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp080 [14] United Republic of Tanzania (URT) (2012) Tanzania Meteorological Agency, Kilimanjaro International Airport Station, Kilimanjaro. [15] Hemp, A. (2009) Climate Change and Its Impact on the Forests of Kilimanjaro. African Journal of Ecology, 47, 3-10.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2028.2008.01043.x [16] Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F. and Roderick, M.L. (2012) Little Change in Global Drought over the Past 60 Years. Nature, 491, 435-438.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature11575 [17] Munishi, P.K.T., Hermegast, A.M. and Mbilinyi, B.P. (2009) The Impacts of Changes in Vegetation Cover on Dry Season Flow in the Kikuletwa River, Northern Tanzania. African Journal of Ecology, 47, 84-92.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2028.2008.01083.x [18] Hemp, A. (2006) Continuum or Zonation? Altitudinal Gradients in the Forest Vegetation of Mt. Kilimanjaro. Plant Ecology, 184, 27-42.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11258-005-9049-4 [19] Hemp, A. (2005) Climate Change-Driven Forest Fires Marginalizes the Ice Cap Wasting on Kilimanjaro. Global Change Biology, 11, 1013-1023.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00968.x [20] Agrawal, S., Moehner, A., Hemp, M., Valst, S., Hitz, J., Smith, H., Meena, S.M., Mwakifwamba, T. and Mwaipopo, O. U. (2003) Development and Climate Change in Tanzania: Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro. OECD, Paris. [21] Mary, A.L. and Majule, A.E. (2009) Impacts of Climate Change, Variability and Adaptation Strategies on Agriculture in Semi Arid Areas of Tanzania: The Case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3, 206-208. [22] Lobell, D.B. and Field, C.B. (2007) Global Scale Climate-Crop Yield Relationships and the Impacts of Recent Warming. Environmental Resources Letter, 2, Article ID: 014002. [23] Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M.J. (2009) Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to US Crop Yields under Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 15594-15598.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106 [24] Lobell, D.B. and Gourdji, S.M. (2012) The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity. Plant Physiology, 160, 1686-1697.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1104/pp.112.208298 [25] World Bank (2002) Climate Change Series. Agriculture and Rural Development Department, The World Bank Environment Department. [26] Easterling, W. (2007) Global Food Security under Climate Change. Pennsylvania State University, University Park.