Detection of Changes on Temperature and Precipitation Features in Istanbul (Turkey)
Author(s)
Hüseyin Turoğlu
ABSTRACT
In this study, the changes in the data of Istanbul’s precipitation and temperature and the features of these changes were analyzed by different methods. In the analyses the daily precipitation and temperature data sets of Florya and Goztepe Meteorological Stations which have similar locational features were used. These sets were recorded between 1960 and 2013 (for 54 years). In order to emphasize the differentiations in the last 15 years the analyses were conducted comparatively both for the 15-year and for the 54-year periods and then the results were evaluated. The changes in the monthly, annual and seasonal quantity, type and frequency of the precipitation in the form of rain and the features of the temperature’s monthly, annual and seasonal changes, the De Martonne aridity index and the Thornthwaite climate classification were carried out. The results showed that during the years from 1999 to 2013 the climate type of Istanbul changed from semi-humid climate to arid and less-humid climate. Most notably the precipitation during the warm periods has decreased, but the frequency of the intense rain has increased and the majority of these episodes of intense rain coincided with the warm periods. Other determinations were the rise in the annual average temperature and the extension of the warm periods in a year. This differentiation of the temperature features can lead to the aggravation of the evaporation and it can be effective for a longer period during the year. Being aware of this differentiation in the features of precipitation and temperature and taking these data into consideration in all sorts of planning and managing strategies have a special importance for the 14 million or more people living in Istanbul.
In this study, the changes in the data of Istanbul’s precipitation and temperature and the features of these changes were analyzed by different methods. In the analyses the daily precipitation and temperature data sets of Florya and Goztepe Meteorological Stations which have similar locational features were used. These sets were recorded between 1960 and 2013 (for 54 years). In order to emphasize the differentiations in the last 15 years the analyses were conducted comparatively both for the 15-year and for the 54-year periods and then the results were evaluated. The changes in the monthly, annual and seasonal quantity, type and frequency of the precipitation in the form of rain and the features of the temperature’s monthly, annual and seasonal changes, the De Martonne aridity index and the Thornthwaite climate classification were carried out. The results showed that during the years from 1999 to 2013 the climate type of Istanbul changed from semi-humid climate to arid and less-humid climate. Most notably the precipitation during the warm periods has decreased, but the frequency of the intense rain has increased and the majority of these episodes of intense rain coincided with the warm periods. Other determinations were the rise in the annual average temperature and the extension of the warm periods in a year. This differentiation of the temperature features can lead to the aggravation of the evaporation and it can be effective for a longer period during the year. Being aware of this differentiation in the features of precipitation and temperature and taking these data into consideration in all sorts of planning and managing strategies have a special importance for the 14 million or more people living in Istanbul.
Cite this paper
Turoğlu, H. (2014) Detection of Changes on Temperature and Precipitation Features in Istanbul (Turkey). Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 549-562. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.44050.
Turoğlu, H. (2014) Detection of Changes on Temperature and Precipitation Features in Istanbul (Turkey). Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 549-562. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.44050.
References
[1] Yüksel, E., Eroglu, V., Sarikaya, H.Z. and Koyuncu, I. (2004) Current and Future Strategies for Water and Wastewater Management of Istanbul City. Environmental Management, 33, 186-195.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-003-2852-6 [2] Codur, D.A., Patan, M., Uyaroglu, N., Goktas, O.C. and Aydin, D. (2007) Istanbul Water Basin Management and European Union Water Framework Directive. International Congress on River Basin Management, Basin Resources Protection, 183-199.
http://www2.dsi.gov.tr/english/congress2007/chapter_1/16.pdf [3] Saatci, A.M. (2013) Solving Water Problems of a Metropolis. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 5, 7-10.
http://www.scirp.org/journal/jwarp http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2013.54A002 [4] Turoglu, H. (2013) Possible Effects of Climate Change on Water Management in Istanbul. The Conference on Global Climate Change, 6-7 September 2013, Yildiz Technical University Auditorium, Istanbul, in Press. [5] Turoglu, H. (2011) Flashfloods and Floods in Istanbul. Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences, 3, 39-46. [6] Kadioglu, M. (2000) Regional Variability of Seasonal Precipitation over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 1743-1760. [7] Tatli, H., Dalfes, H.N. and Mentes, S.S. (2005) Surface Air Temperature Variability over Turkey and Its Connection to Large Scale Upper Air Circulation via Multivariate Techniques. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 331-350. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1133 [8] Kitoh, A. (2007) Future Climate Projections around Turkey by Global Climate Models. Tsukuba: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki.
http://cirrus.ucsd.edu/~pierce/mideast_refs/future_climate_change_turkey_Kitoh.pdf [9] Tayanc, M., Im, U., Dogruel, M. and Karaca, M. (2009) Climate Change in Turkey for the Last Half Century. Climatic Change, 94, 483-502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9511-0 [10] Talu, N., Ozden, M.S., Ozgün, S., Dougherty, W. and Fencl, A. (2010) Turkey’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (Draft). T.R. Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, General Directorate of Environmental Management, Department of Climate Change, Ankara. [11] Onol, B. and Unal, Y.S. (2012) Assessment of Climate Change Simulations over Climate Zones of Turkey. In: Regional Environ Change. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-012-0335-0#page-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0335-0 [12] Altin, T.B., Barak, B. and Altin, B.N. (2012) Change in Precipitation and Temperature Amounts over Three Decades in Central Anatolia, Turkey. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 107-125.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2012.21013 [13] Toros, H. (2012) Spatio-Temporal Variation of Daily Extreme Temperatures over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1047-1055. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2325 [14] Toros, H. (2012) Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Change Assessments over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1310-1325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2353 [15] Türkes, M. (2013) Global Climate Change and Its Impacts on Turkey: Model Projections and Recommendations for the Near Future. Proceedings of the Conference on Global Climate Change, Istanbul, 6-7 September 2013, in Press. [16] TSM (2014) Turkish State Meteorological Service. Ankara. [17] Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G. (1981) Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.213.4511.957 [18] Ruedy, R., Sato, M. and Lo, K. (2014) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Earth Observatory, Goddard Space Flight Center, Sciences and Exploration Directorate Earth Sciences Division, News. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ [19] Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Glascoe, J. and Sato, M. (1999) GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 30997-31022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900835 [20] Hansen, J.E., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T. and Karl, T. (2001) A Closer Look at United States and Global Surface Temperature Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 23947-23963. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000354 [21] Cole, S. and McCarthy, L. (2012) NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-Warmest Year on Record. NASA Earth Observatory, Goddard Space Flight Center, Sciences and Exploration Directorate Earth Sciences Division, News. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-temps.html [22] Cheung, W.H., Senay, G.B. and Singh, A. (2008) Trends and Spatial Distribution of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 1723-1734.
www.interscience.wiley.com [23] De Lima, M.I.P., Carvalho, S.C.P., de Lima, J.L.P. and Coelho, M.F.E.S. (2010) Trends in Precipitation: Analysis of Long Annual and Monthly Time Series from Mainland Portugal. Advances in Geosciences, 25, 155-160. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-25-155-2010 [24] Miao, L., Jun, X. and Dejuan, M. (2012) Long-Term Trend Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation for Beijing, China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 3, 64-72. [25] Sayemuzzaman, M. and Jha, M. (2014) Seasonal and Annual Precipitation Time Series Trend Analysis in North Carolina, United States. Atmospheric Research, 137, 183-194.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.012 [26] Gong, D., Shi, P. and Wang, J. (2004) Daily Precipitation Changes in the Semi-Arid Region over Northern China. Journal of Arid Environments, 59, 771-784.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2004.02.006 [27] Qian, W., Fu, J. and Yan, Z. (2007) Decrease of Light Rain Events in Summer Associated with a Warming Environment in China during 1961-2005. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, Published Online. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029631 [28] Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lo, K., Lea, D.W. and Elizade, M.M. (2006) Global Temperature Change. PNAS, 103, 14288-14293. [29] Hegerl, G.C., Zwiers, F.W., Braconnot, P. Gillett, N.P., Luo, Y., Orsini, J.A.M., Nicholls, N., Penner, J.E. and Stott, P.A. (2007) Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L., Eds., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York. [30] Baltas, E. (2007) Spatial Distribution of Climatic Indices in Northern Greece. Meteorological Applications, 14, 69-78. www.interscience.wiley.com http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.7 [31] Deniz, A., Toros, H. and Incecik, S. (2011) Spatial Variations of Climate Indices in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 394-403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2081 [32] Lungu, M., Panaitescu, L. and Nita, S. (2011) Aridity, Climatic Risk Phenomenon in Dobrudja. Present Environment and Sustainable Development, 5, 179-190. [33] Rahimi, J., Ebrahimpour, M. and Khalili, A. (2013) Spatial Changes of Extended De Martonne Climatic Zones Affected by Climate Change in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112, 409-418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0741-8 [34] Sensoy, S. and Demircan, M. (2010) Climatological Applications in Turkey. Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara. klimatoloji@dmi.gov.tr [35] Ardel, A., Kurter, A. and Donmez, Y. (1969) KlimatolojiTatbikati. Istanbul UniversitesiYayinlari No. 1123, Edebiyat-FakültesiCografyaEnstitüsüYayinlari No, 40, Istanbul. (In Turkish) [36] Thorntwaite, C.W. (1948) An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate. Geographical Review, 38, 55-94. http://www.unc.edu/courses/2007fall/geog/801/001/www/ET/Thornthwaite48-GeogrRev.pdf. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/210739
[1] Yüksel, E., Eroglu, V., Sarikaya, H.Z. and Koyuncu, I. (2004) Current and Future Strategies for Water and Wastewater Management of Istanbul City. Environmental Management, 33, 186-195.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-003-2852-6 [2] Codur, D.A., Patan, M., Uyaroglu, N., Goktas, O.C. and Aydin, D. (2007) Istanbul Water Basin Management and European Union Water Framework Directive. International Congress on River Basin Management, Basin Resources Protection, 183-199.
http://www2.dsi.gov.tr/english/congress2007/chapter_1/16.pdf [3] Saatci, A.M. (2013) Solving Water Problems of a Metropolis. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 5, 7-10.
http://www.scirp.org/journal/jwarp http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2013.54A002 [4] Turoglu, H. (2013) Possible Effects of Climate Change on Water Management in Istanbul. The Conference on Global Climate Change, 6-7 September 2013, Yildiz Technical University Auditorium, Istanbul, in Press. [5] Turoglu, H. (2011) Flashfloods and Floods in Istanbul. Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences, 3, 39-46. [6] Kadioglu, M. (2000) Regional Variability of Seasonal Precipitation over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 1743-1760. [7] Tatli, H., Dalfes, H.N. and Mentes, S.S. (2005) Surface Air Temperature Variability over Turkey and Its Connection to Large Scale Upper Air Circulation via Multivariate Techniques. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 331-350. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1133 [8] Kitoh, A. (2007) Future Climate Projections around Turkey by Global Climate Models. Tsukuba: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki.
http://cirrus.ucsd.edu/~pierce/mideast_refs/future_climate_change_turkey_Kitoh.pdf [9] Tayanc, M., Im, U., Dogruel, M. and Karaca, M. (2009) Climate Change in Turkey for the Last Half Century. Climatic Change, 94, 483-502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9511-0 [10] Talu, N., Ozden, M.S., Ozgün, S., Dougherty, W. and Fencl, A. (2010) Turkey’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (Draft). T.R. Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, General Directorate of Environmental Management, Department of Climate Change, Ankara. [11] Onol, B. and Unal, Y.S. (2012) Assessment of Climate Change Simulations over Climate Zones of Turkey. In: Regional Environ Change. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-012-0335-0#page-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0335-0 [12] Altin, T.B., Barak, B. and Altin, B.N. (2012) Change in Precipitation and Temperature Amounts over Three Decades in Central Anatolia, Turkey. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 107-125.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2012.21013 [13] Toros, H. (2012) Spatio-Temporal Variation of Daily Extreme Temperatures over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1047-1055. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2325 [14] Toros, H. (2012) Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Change Assessments over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1310-1325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2353 [15] Türkes, M. (2013) Global Climate Change and Its Impacts on Turkey: Model Projections and Recommendations for the Near Future. Proceedings of the Conference on Global Climate Change, Istanbul, 6-7 September 2013, in Press. [16] TSM (2014) Turkish State Meteorological Service. Ankara. [17] Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G. (1981) Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.213.4511.957 [18] Ruedy, R., Sato, M. and Lo, K. (2014) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Earth Observatory, Goddard Space Flight Center, Sciences and Exploration Directorate Earth Sciences Division, News. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ [19] Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Glascoe, J. and Sato, M. (1999) GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 30997-31022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900835 [20] Hansen, J.E., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T. and Karl, T. (2001) A Closer Look at United States and Global Surface Temperature Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 23947-23963. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000354 [21] Cole, S. and McCarthy, L. (2012) NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-Warmest Year on Record. NASA Earth Observatory, Goddard Space Flight Center, Sciences and Exploration Directorate Earth Sciences Division, News. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-temps.html [22] Cheung, W.H., Senay, G.B. and Singh, A. (2008) Trends and Spatial Distribution of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 1723-1734.
www.interscience.wiley.com [23] De Lima, M.I.P., Carvalho, S.C.P., de Lima, J.L.P. and Coelho, M.F.E.S. (2010) Trends in Precipitation: Analysis of Long Annual and Monthly Time Series from Mainland Portugal. Advances in Geosciences, 25, 155-160. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-25-155-2010 [24] Miao, L., Jun, X. and Dejuan, M. (2012) Long-Term Trend Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation for Beijing, China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 3, 64-72. [25] Sayemuzzaman, M. and Jha, M. (2014) Seasonal and Annual Precipitation Time Series Trend Analysis in North Carolina, United States. Atmospheric Research, 137, 183-194.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.012 [26] Gong, D., Shi, P. and Wang, J. (2004) Daily Precipitation Changes in the Semi-Arid Region over Northern China. Journal of Arid Environments, 59, 771-784.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2004.02.006 [27] Qian, W., Fu, J. and Yan, Z. (2007) Decrease of Light Rain Events in Summer Associated with a Warming Environment in China during 1961-2005. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, Published Online. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029631 [28] Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lo, K., Lea, D.W. and Elizade, M.M. (2006) Global Temperature Change. PNAS, 103, 14288-14293. [29] Hegerl, G.C., Zwiers, F.W., Braconnot, P. Gillett, N.P., Luo, Y., Orsini, J.A.M., Nicholls, N., Penner, J.E. and Stott, P.A. (2007) Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L., Eds., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York. [30] Baltas, E. (2007) Spatial Distribution of Climatic Indices in Northern Greece. Meteorological Applications, 14, 69-78. www.interscience.wiley.com http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.7 [31] Deniz, A., Toros, H. and Incecik, S. (2011) Spatial Variations of Climate Indices in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 394-403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2081 [32] Lungu, M., Panaitescu, L. and Nita, S. (2011) Aridity, Climatic Risk Phenomenon in Dobrudja. Present Environment and Sustainable Development, 5, 179-190. [33] Rahimi, J., Ebrahimpour, M. and Khalili, A. (2013) Spatial Changes of Extended De Martonne Climatic Zones Affected by Climate Change in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112, 409-418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0741-8 [34] Sensoy, S. and Demircan, M. (2010) Climatological Applications in Turkey. Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara. klimatoloji@dmi.gov.tr [35] Ardel, A., Kurter, A. and Donmez, Y. (1969) KlimatolojiTatbikati. Istanbul UniversitesiYayinlari No. 1123, Edebiyat-FakültesiCografyaEnstitüsüYayinlari No, 40, Istanbul. (In Turkish) [36] Thorntwaite, C.W. (1948) An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate. Geographical Review, 38, 55-94. http://www.unc.edu/courses/2007fall/geog/801/001/www/ET/Thornthwaite48-GeogrRev.pdf. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/210739