ACS  Vol.4 No.4 , October 2014
Study of Weak Intensity Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model
ABSTRACT
Numerical simulations of four weak cyclonic storms [two cases of pre-monsoon cyclones: Laila (2010), Aila (2009) and two cases of post-monsoon cyclones: Jal (2010), SCS (2003)] are carried out using WRF-ARW mesoscale model. Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) as cumulus parameterization (CP) scheme, Yonsei University(YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and WRF single moment 6 class (WSM6) microphysics (MP) scheme is kept same for all the cyclone cases. Three two-way interactive nested domains [60 km,20 kmand6.6 km] are used with initial and boundary conditions from NCEP Final Analysis data. The model integration is performed to evaluate the track, landfall time and position as well as intensity in terms of Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP) and Maximum Surface Wind speed (MSW) of the storm. The track and landfall (time and position) of almost all cyclones are well predicted by the model (except for SCS cyclone case) which may be because of the accurate presentation of the steering flow by CP scheme. Irrespective of season, the intensity is overestimated in all the cases of cyclone, mainly because of the lower tropospheric and mid-tropospheric parameters are overestimated. YSU PBL scheme used here is responsible for the deep convection in and above PBL. Concentration of frozen hydrometeors at the mid-tropospheric levels and thus the latent heat released during auto conversion of hydrometeors is also responsible for overestimation of intensity.

Cite this paper
Kanase, R. and Salvekar, P. (2014) Study of Weak Intensity Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 534-548. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.44049.
References
[1]   Charney, J.G. and Eliassen, A. (1964) On the Growth of the Hurricane Depression. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 21, 68-75.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1964)021<0068:OTGOTH>2.0.CO;2

[2]   Gray, W.M. (1968) Global View of the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms. Monthly Weather Review, 96, 669-700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0669:GVOTOO>2.0.CO;2

[3]   Holland, G.J. and Merill, R.T. (1984) On the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Structural Changes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 110, 723-745.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711046510

[4]   Craig, G.C. and Gray, S.L. (1996) CISK or WISHE as the Mechanism for Tropical Cyclone Intensification. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53, 3528-3540. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3528:COWATM>2.0.CO;2

[5]   Holland, G.J. (1983) Tropical Cyclone Motion: Environmental Interaction plus a Beta Effect. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 40, 328-342.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<0328:TCMEIP>2.0.CO;2

[6]   Pattanayak S. and Mohanty, U.C. (2008) A Comparative Study on Performance of MM5 and WRF Models in Simulation of Tropical Cyclones over Indian Seas. Current Science, 95, 923-936.

[7]   Deshpande, M., Pattanaik, S. and Salvekar, P.S. (2010) Impact of Physical Parameterization Schemes on Numerical Simulation of Super Cyclone Gonu. Natural Hazards, 55, 211-231.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9521-x

[8]   Deshpande, M., Pattnaik, S. and Salvekar, P.S. (2012) Impact of Cloud Parameterization on the Numerical Simulation of a Super Cyclone. Annales Geophysicae, 30, 775-795.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-775-2012

[9]   Trivedi, D.K., Mukhopadhyay, P. and Vaidya, S.S. (2006) Impact of Physical Parameterization Schemes on the Numerical Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999). Mausam, 57, 97-110.

[10]   Osuri, K.K., Mohanty, U.C., Routray, A., Kulkarni, M.A. and Mohapatra, M. (2012) Customization of WRF-ARW Model with Physical Parameterization Schemes for the Simulation of Tropical Cyclones over North Indian Ocean. Natural Hazards, 63, 1337-1359. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0

[11]   Osuri, K.K., Mohanty, U.C., Routray, A., Mohapatra, M. and Nivogi, D. (2013) Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52, 2476-2492. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0313.1

[12]   Rao, D.V.B., Prasad, D.H. and Srinivas, D. (2009) Impact of Horizontal Resolution and the Advantages of the Nested Domains Approach in the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Movement. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114, Published Online.

[13]   Srinivas, C.V., Venkatesan, R., Rao, D.V.B. and Prasad, D.H. (2007) Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003) Model Sensitivity to Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 164, 1-23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-007-0228-1

[14]   Srinivas, V., Venkatesan, R., Yesubabu, V. and Ramarkrishna, S.S.V.S. (2010) Impact of Assimilation of Conventional and Satellite Meteorological Observations on the Numerical Simulation of a Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone of Nov 2008 near Tamilnadu Using WRF Model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 110, 19-44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-010-0102-z

[15]   Raju, P.V.S., Potty, J. and Mohanty, U.C. (2011) Sensitivity of Physical Parameterizations on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 113, 125-137. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0151-y

[16]   Mukhopadhyay, P., Taraphdar, S. and Goswami, B.N. (2011) Influence of Moist Processes on Track and Intensity Forecast of Cyclones over the Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116, Published Online. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014700

[17]   Srinivas, C.V., Rao, D.V.B., Yesubabu, V., Baskarana, R. and Venkatraman, B. (2013) Tropical Cyclone Predictions over the Bay of Bengal Using the High-Resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139, 1810-1825. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2064

[18]   Li, X. and Pu, Z. (2008) Sensitivity of Numerical Simulation of Early Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Emily (2005) to Cloud Microphysical and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 4819-4838. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2366.1

[19]   Efstathiou, G.A., Zoumakis, N.M., Melas, D. and Kassomenos, P. (2012) Impact of Precipitating Ice on the Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Event with Advanced Research WRF Using Two Bulk Microphysical Schemes. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 48, 357-368.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-012-0034-2

[20]   Tao, W., Shi, J.J., Chen, S.S., Lang, S., Lin, P., Hong, S.Y., Peters-Lidard, C. and Hou, A. (2011) The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 47, 1-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-011-1001-z

[21]   Kanase, R.D. and Salvekar, P.S. (2011) Numerical Simulation of Severe Cyclonic Storm LAILA (2010): Sensitivity to Initial and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes. Proceedings of Disaster Risk Vulnerability Conference, 1, 165-170.

[22]   Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gil, D.O., Barker, D.M., Duda, M.G., Huang, X.Y., Wang, W. and Powers, J.G. (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751 STR, 1-113. http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3_bw.pdf

[23]   Betts, A.K. (1986) A New Convective Adjustment Scheme Part I: Observational and Theoretical Basis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 112, Article ID: 677691.

[24]   Betts, A.K. and Miller, M.J. (1986) A New Convective Adjustment Scheme Part II: Single Column Tests Using GATE Wave, BOMEX, and Arctic Air Mass Data Sets. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 112, 693-709.

[25]   Janjic, Z.I. (1994) The Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sublayer, and Turbulence Closure Schemes. Monthly Weather Review, 122, 927-945. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2

[26]   Hong, S.Y., Dudhia, J. and Chen, S.H. (2004) A Revised Approach to Ice Microphysical Processes for the Bulk Parameterization of Cloud and Precipitations. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 103-120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2

[27]   Houze, R.A., Hobbs Jr., P.V., Herzegh, P.H. and Parsons, D.B. (1979) Size Distributions of Precipitation Particles in Frontal Clouds. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 36, 156-162.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<0156:SDOPPI>2.0.CO;2

[28]   Tripoli, G.J. and Cotton, W.R. (1980) A Numerical Investigation of Several Factors Contributing to the Observed Variable Intensity of Deep Convection over South Florida. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 19, 1037-1063. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1980)019<1037:ANIOSF>2.0.CO;2

[29]   Hong, S.Y. and Pan, H.L. (1996) Nonlocal Boundary Layer Vertical Diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model. Monthly Weather Review, 124, 2322-2339. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2322:NBLVDI>2.0.CO;2

[30]   Hong, S.Y. and Lim, J.O.J. (2006) The WRF Single Moment 6 Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6). Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, 42, 129-151.

[31]   RSMC Report (2010) A Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2009. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi.

[32]   RSMC Report (2009) A Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2003. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi.

[33]   RSMC Report (2004) A Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2010. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi.

[34]   Lord, S.J., Willoughby, H.E. and Piotrowicz, J.M. (1984) Role of a Parameterized Ice-Phase Microphysics in an Axisymmetric, Nonhydrostatic Tropical Cyclone Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 41, 2836-2848. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<2836:ROAPIP>2.0.CO;2

[35]   Lord, S.J. and Lord, J.M. (1988) Vertical Velocity Structure in an Axisymmetric, Nonhydrostatic Tropical Cyclone Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 45, 1453-1461. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1453:VVSIAA>2.0.CO;2

 
 
Top