One critical issue for routing in cognitive radio ad hoc networks (CRAHNs) is how to select a reliable path for forwarding traffic. This is because mobility may cause radio links to break frequently. The reliability of a path depends on the availability of those links that constitutes the path. In this letter, we present a novel approach to predict the probability of the availability of the link between two cognitive radio nodes. The prediction is achieved by estimating the link activation and spectrum activation probabilities. Our prediction is verified by simulation and proved to be accurate. This study can provide reliability assurance on dynamic routing for cognitive radio ad hoc networks.
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