AJCC  Vol.3 No.1 , March 2014
Analysis of Change Point in Surface Temperature Time Series Using Cumulative Sum Chart and Bootstrapping for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India
ABSTRACT

This paper aims to detect the short-term as well as long-term change point in the surface air temperature time series for Asansol weather observation station, West Bengal, India. Temperature data for the period from 1941 to 2010 of the said weather observatory have been collected from Indian Meteorological Department, Kolkata. Variations and trends of annual mean temperature, annual mean maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature time series were examined. The cumulative sum charts (CUSUM) and bootstrapping were used for the detection of abrupt changes in the time series data set. Statistically significant abrupt changes and trends have been detected. The major change point in the annual mean temperatures occurred around 1986 (0.57°C) at the period of 25 years in the long-term regional scale. On the other side, the annual mean maximum and annual mean minimum temperatures have distinct change points at level 1. There are abrupt changes in the year 1961 (Confidence interval 1961, 1963) for the annual mean maximum and 1994 (Confidence interval 1993, 1996) for the annual mean minimum temperatures at a confidence level of 100% and 98%, respectively. Before the change, the annual mean maximum and annual mean minimum temperatures were 30.90°C and 23.99°C, respectively, while after the change, the temperatures became 33.93°C and 24.84°C, respectively. Over the entire period of consideration (1941-2010), 11 forward and backward changes were found in total. Out of 11, there are 3 changes (1961, 1986 and 2001) in annual mean temperatures, 4 changes (1957, 1961, 1980 and 1994) in annual mean maximum temperatures, and rest 4 changes (1968, 1981, 1994 and 2001) are associated with annual mean minimum temperature data set.


Cite this paper
Khan, A. , Chatterjee, S. , Bisai, D. and Barman, N. (2014) Analysis of Change Point in Surface Temperature Time Series Using Cumulative Sum Chart and Bootstrapping for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 83-94. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31008.
References
[1]   IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. In: R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, Eds., Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[2]   IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, Eds., Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[3]   IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson, Eds., Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[4]   Joeri, R., William, H., Jason, H.L., van Vuuren, D.P., Keywan, R., Mathews, B.M., Tatsuya, H., Kejun, J. and Malte, M. (2011) Emission Pathways Consistent with a 2°C Global Temperature Limit. Nature Climate Change, 1, 413-418.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1258

[5]   Spencer, R.W. (2008) The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics, Harvard University Press, Cambridge. http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

[6]   (2005) Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Global Response to Climate Change.
http://nationalacademies.org/onp/06072005.pdf

[7]   Parker, D.E. and Alexander, L.V. (2002) Global and Regional Climate in 2001. Weather, 57, 328-340.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/00431650260283505

[8]   Brohan, P., Kennedy, J.J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B. and Jones, P.D. (2006) Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, Article ID: D12106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548

[9]   Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003) Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and Update to 2001. Journal of Climate, 16, 206-223.

[10]   Soon, W., Baliunas, S., Posmentier, E.S. and Okeke, P. (2000) Variations of Solar Coronal Hole Area and Terrestrial Lower Tropospheric Air Temperature from 1979 to Mid-1998: Astronomical Forcing of Change in Earth’s Climate. New Astron, 4, 563-579. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1384-1076(00)00002-6

[11]   Landscheidt, T. (2000) Solar Wind near Earth: Indicator of Variations in Global Temperature. Proceedings of the 1st Solar and Space Weather Euro conference on the Solar Cycle a Tenerife, Tenerife, 25-29 September 2000, 497-500.

[12]   Vinnikov, K.Y. andGrody, N.C. (2003) Global Warming Trend of Mean Troposphere Temperature Observed by Satellites. Science, 302, 269-272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1087910

[13]   Jones, P.D., Parker, D.E., Osborn, T.J. and Briffa, K.R. (2011) Global and Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies-Land and Marine Instrumental Records. Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html

[14]   Nicholson, S.E. (2001) Climatic and Environmental Change in Africa during the Last Two Centuries. Climate Research, 17, 123-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr017123

[15]   Nicholson, S.E. and Kim, J. (1997) The Relationship of the E Nino Southern Oscillation to African Rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 17, 117-135.

[16]   Pielke, R.A. (2005) Land Use and Climate Change. Science, 310, 1625-1626.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1120529

[17]   Robert Jr., R.C. and Sandra, W.B. (1987) The Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Pan Evaporation in Phoenix, Arizona. Journal of Climatology, 7, 593-597. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370070607

[18]   Aguilar, E., Auer, I., Brunet, M., Peterson, T. and Wieringa, J. (2003) Guidelines on Climate Metadata and Homogenization. WMO TD. No. 1186 (WCDMP2), World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.

[19]   He, W.P., Feng, G.L. and Wu Chou, Q. (2011) A New Method for Abrupt Dynamic Change Detection of Correlated Time Series. International Journal of climatology, 32, 1604-1614. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2367

[20]   Menne, M.J. and Williams Jr., C.N. (2009) Homogenization of Temperature Series via Pairwise Comparisons. Journal of Climate, 22, 1700-1717. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2263.1

[21]   Brunet, M., et al. (2007) Temporal and Spatial Temperature Variability and Change over Spain during 1850-2005. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, Article ID: D12117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008249

[22]   Della-Marta, P.M. and Wanner, H. (2006) A Method of Homogenizing the Extremes and Mean of Daily Temperature Measurements. Journal of Climate, 19, 4179-4197. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3855.1

[23]   Serra, C., Burgueno, A. and Lana, X. (2001) Analysis of Maximum and Minimum Daily Temperatures Recorded at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, Ne S 1917-1998. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 617-636.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.633

[24]   Peterson, T.C., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R., et al. (1998) Homogeneity Adjustments of in Situ Atmospheric Climate Data: A Review. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 1493-1517.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981115)18:13<1493::AID-JOC329>3.0.CO;2-T

[25]   Karl, T.R. and Williams Jr., C.N. (1987) An Approach to Adjusting Climatological Time Series for Discontinuous In-TACT>2.0.C homogeneities. Journal of Climate & Applied Meteorology, 26, 1744-1763.

[26]   H. Alexanderson, () A Homogeneity Test Applied to Precipitation Data. Journal of Climatology, Vol. 6, 1986, pp. 661-675. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607

[27]   Buishan, T.A. (1982) Some Methods for Testing the Homogeneity of Rainfall Records. Journal of Hydrology, 58, 11-27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X

[28]   Taylor, W. (2000) Change-Point Analysis: A Powerful Tool for Detecting Changes. Taylor Enterprises, Libertyville.
http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/changepoint

[29]   Taylor, W. (2000) Change-Point Analyzer 2.3 Software Package. Taylor Enterprises Inc., Libertyville.
http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/changepoint

[30]   Davison, A.C. and Hinkley, D.V. (1997) Bootstrap Methods and Their Application. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511802843

 
 
Top