This study introduces a framework to model moderate-to-high poverty transition in urban neighborhoods using their relative competitive positions within metropolitan areas. Relative competitive position is measured by a variety of neighborhood attributes, including resident and neighborhood characteristics, locational attributes, among others. The model was estimated using the decennial census, using tracts from 1990 and 2000 as proxies for neighborhoods. Results indicate that the competitive model works well as a method to evaluate neighborhood poverty transition. Neighborhoods with relatively unfavorable competitive positions within a metropolitan area experience more poverty growth and therefore are likely to have more concentrated poverty in the future. Based on the results, several recommendations are made to intervene. These include promoting public transit, immigrant assimilation programs, among others.
 Brueckner, J. (1977). The determinants of residential succession. Journal of Urban Economics, 4, 45-59.
 Carter, W. H., Schill, M. H., & Wachter, S. M. (1998). Polarisation, public housing and racial minorities in US cities. Urban Studies, 35, 1889-1911. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0042098984204
 Cohen, C. J., & Dawson, M. C. (1993). Neighborhood poverty and African American politics. American Political Science Review, 87, 286-302. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2939041
 DiPasquale, D., & Glaeser, E. L. (1999). Incentives and social capital: Are homeowners better citizens? Journal of Urban Economics, 45, 354-384. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/juec.1998.2098
 Eggers, M. L., & Massey, D. S. (1992). A longitudinal analysis of urban poverty: Blacks in U.S. metropolitan areas between 1970 and 1980. Social Science Research, 21, 175-203.
 Fogarty, M. S. (1977). Predicting neighborhood decline within a large central city: An application of discriminant analysis. Environment and Planning A, 9, 579-584. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a090579
 Galster, G. C. (2001). On the nature of neighborhood. Urban Studies, 38, 2111-2124. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00420980120087072
 Galster, G. C., Quercia, R. G., Cortes, A., & Malega, R. (2003). The Fortunes of poor neighborhoods. Urban Affairs Review, 39, 205-227.
 Hughes, M. (1989). Mispeaking truth to power: A geographical perspective on the “underclass” fallacy. Economic Geography, 65, 187207. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/143834
 Kasarda, J. (1993). Inner-city concentrated poverty and neighborhood distress: 1970 to 1990. Housing Policy Debate, 4, 253-302.
 Massey, D. S., & Eggers, M. L. (1990). The ecology of inequality: Minorities and the concentration of poverty, 1970-1980. American Journal of Sociology, 95, 1153-1188.
 Metzger, J. (2000). Planned abandonment: The neighborhood life-cycle theory and national urban policy. Housing Policy Debate, 11, 7-40.
 Mincy, R. B., Sawhill, I., & Wolf, D. (1990). The underclass: Definition and measurement. Science, 248, 450-453.
 Rosenthal, S. (2007). Old homes, externalities, and poor neighborhoods: A model of urban decline and renewal. Journal of Urban Economics, 63, 816-840. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2007.06.003
 Oreopoulos, P. (2003). The long-run consequences of growing up in a poor neighborhood. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 15331575. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552865
 Quercia, R. G., & Galster, G. C. (2000). Thresh-old effects and neighborhood change, Journal of Planning Education and Research, 20, 146-162. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0739456X0002000202
 Schuler, J., Kent, R., & Monroe, B. (1992). Neighborhood gentrification: A discriminant analysis of a historic district in Cleveland, Ohio. Urban Geography, 13, 49-67.
 Tatian, A. P. (2003). Neighborhood change database: Data users’ guide.
 Temkin, K., & Robe, W. (1996). Neighborhood change and urban policy. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 15, 159-170.