An Early Warning Model with Technical Indicators: The Case of Ise (Istanbul Stock Exchange)
Author(s)
Kutluk Kagan Sumer*
Affiliation(s)
Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey.
ABSTRACT
In this study, the technical indicators are used in
forecasting whether stock prices will rise, fall or will be constant at the
following day. The indicators are generated by taking into account the daily
stock returns. If the daily stock returns are positive, the indicator is coded as “+1”; if the daily stock returns are
constant, the indicator is
coded as “
KEYWORDS
Stock Exchange; ISE; Technical Analysis; Technical Indicators; Early Warning; Ordered Choice
Stock Exchange; ISE; Technical Analysis; Technical Indicators; Early Warning; Ordered Choice
Cite this paper
K. Sumer, "An Early Warning Model with Technical Indicators: The Case of Ise (Istanbul Stock Exchange)," iBusiness, Vol. 5 No. 4, 2013, pp. 173-183. doi: 10.4236/ib.2013.54022.
K. Sumer, "An Early Warning Model with Technical Indicators: The Case of Ise (Istanbul Stock Exchange)," iBusiness, Vol. 5 No. 4, 2013, pp. 173-183. doi: 10.4236/ib.2013.54022.
References
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[1] C. Gourieroux, “Econometrics of Qualitative Dependent Variables,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511805608 [2] W. H. Greene, “Econometric Analysis,” Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, 2000. [3] D. Backus, “Discrete-Time Models of Bond Pricing,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper Series/6736, 1998. [4] R. D. McKelvey, and W. Zavoina, “A Statistical Model for the Analysis of Ordinal Level Dependent Variables,” Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1975, pp. 103-120. [5] R. C. Mittelhammer, G. G. Judge and D. J. Miller, “Econometric Foundations,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000. [6] J. E. Murphy Jr., “Stock Market Probability: Using Statistics to Predict and Optimize Investment Outcomes,” Revised Edition, Irwin, 1994. [7] T. Plummer and F. William, “Forecasting Financial Markets: Technical Analysis and the Dynamics of Price,” Wiley, 1991. [8] T. Laitila, “A Pseudo-R2 Measure for Limited and Qualitative Dependent Variable Models,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 56, No. 3, 1993, pp. 341-345. [9] R. S. Pindyck and D. L. Rubinfeld, “Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts,” McGraw-Hill, 1998. [10] IMKB, 2001. http://www.imkb.gov.tr/endeksler.htm