Stress rise precursor to earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau
Affiliation(s)
Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China. P.J. Barosh and Associates, Bristol, USA.
Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China. P.J. Barosh and Associates, Bristol, USA.
ABSTRACT
Earthquake prediction thus far has proven to be a very difficult task, but changes in situ stress appear to offer a viable approach for forecasting large earthquakes in Tibet and perhaps other continental regions. High stress anomalies formed along active faults before large earthquakes and disappeared soon after the earthquakes occurred in the Tibetan Plateau. Principle stress increased up to ~2 - 5 times higher than background stress to form high stress anomalies along causative faults before the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass earthquake in November 2001, Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in May 2008, Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake in October 2009, Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake in April 2010 and the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake in April 2013. Stress near the epicenters rapidly increased 0.10 - 0.12 MPa over 45 days, ~8 months before the Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake occurred. The high principle stress anomalies decreased quickly to the normal stress state in ~8 - 12 months after the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes. These high stress anomalies and their demise appear directly related to the immediate stress rise along a fault prior to the earthquakes and the release during the event. Thus, the stress rise appears to be a viable precursor in prediction of large continental earthquakes as in the Tibetan Plateau.
Cite this paper
Wu, Z. , Chen, Q. , Barosh, P. , Peng, H. and Hu, D. (2013) Stress rise precursor to earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau. Natural Science, 5, 46-55. doi: 10.4236/ns.2013.58A1006.
Wu, Z. , Chen, Q. , Barosh, P. , Peng, H. and Hu, D. (2013) Stress rise precursor to earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau. Natural Science, 5, 46-55. doi: 10.4236/ns.2013.58A1006.
References
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[1] Wu, Z.H., Barosh, Patrick, J., Zhang, Z.C. and Liao, H.J. (2012) Effects from the Wenchuan Earthquake and seismic hazard in the Longmenshan Mountains at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Engineering Geology, 143144, 28-36. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.06. 006 [2] Reid, H.F. (1910) Mechanics of the earthquake, the California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. Report of the State Investigation Commission, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington DC. [3] Li, S.-G. (1974) Earthquake geology. Science Press, Beijing. [4] Li, F.Q. (2010) In-situ stress measurement is an important approach to realize earthquake prediction—Developing J.S. Lee’s scientific ideas on earthquake prediction. In: Xue and Furen, Eds., Rock Stress and Earthquakes, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, London, 757-759. [5] Chen, Q.X. (1998) Analysis of rock mechanics and tectonic stress field. Geology Publishing House, Beijing. [6] Yao, R., Yang, S.X., Lu, Y.Z., Cui, X.F., Chen, Q. and Mi, Q. (2010) Characteristics of tectonic stress in the east of Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring region inferred from in-situ stress measurements. In: Xue and Furen, Eds., Rock Stress and Earthquakes, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, London, 687-693. [7] Wu, M.L., Zhang, C.S., Liao, C.T., Ma, Y.S. and Ou, M.Y. (2005) The recent state of stress in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau according to in-situ stress measurements. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 48, 327-332. [8] Zoback, M.L. (1992) First and second order patterns of stress in the lithosphere: The world stress map project. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97, 11703-11728. doi:10.1029/92JB00132 [9] Heidbach, O., Tingay, M., Barth, A., Reinecker, J., Kurfe, D. and Miller, B. (2008) The release 2008 of the world stress map. www.world-stress-map.org [10] Barosh, P.J. (1986) Neotectonic movement, earthquakes and stress state in the eastern United States. Tectonophysics, 132, 117-152. doi:10.1016/0040-1951(86)90029-6 [11] Xie, F.R., Zhang, H.Y. and Du, Y. (2010) The recent tectonic stress districts and strong earthquakes in China. In: Xue and Furen, Eds., Rock Stress and Earthquakes, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, London, 35-40. [12] Zhang, Y.-Q. and Xie, F.-R. (2010) Background stress state estimated from 2008 Wenchuan earthquake sequence. In: Xue and Furen, Eds., Rock Stress and Earthquakes, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, London, 707-712. [13] Molnar, P. and Tapponnier, P. (1978) Active tectonics of Tibet. Journal of Geophysical Research, 83, 5361-5375. doi:10.1029/JB083iB11p05361 [14] Tapponnier, P., Peltzer, A. Y., Le, Dain, Amijo, R. and Cobbold, P. (1982) Propagating extrusion tectonics in Asia: New insights from simple experiments with plasticine. Geology, 10, 611-616. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1982)10<611:PETIAN>2.0.CO;2 [15] Zhang, P.Z., Shen, Z.K., Wang, M., Gan, W.J., Burgmann, R., Molnar, P., Wang Q., Niu, Z.J., Sun, J.Z., Wu, J.C., Sun, H.R. and You, X.Z. (2004) Continuous deformation of the Tibetan Plateau from global positioning system data. Geology, 32, 809-812. doi:10.1130/G20554.1 [16] China Seismological Bureau (2003) Album of the Ms 8.1 earthquake occurred in west of Kunlun Pass, China. Seismological Press, Beijing, 1-105. [17] Wu, Z.H., Wu, Z.H., Hu, D.G., Wang, W., Zhang Z.C. and Lei, W.Z. (2005) Album of active faults and geological hazards along the Golmud-Lhasa Railway across the Tibetan Plateau. Seismological Press, Beijing, 1-150. [18] Xu, X.W., Yu, G.H., Chen, G.H., Ran, Y.K., Li, C.X., Chen, Y.G. and Chang, C.P. (2009) Parameters of coseismic reverseand oblique-slip surface ruptures of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Acta Geologica Sinica, 83, 673-684. doi:10.1111/j.1755-6724.2009.00091.x [19] Wu, M.L., Zhang, Y.Q., Liao, C.T., Chen, Q., Ma, Y.S., Wu, J.S., Yan, J.F. and Ou, M.Y. (2009) Preliminary results of in-situ stress measurements along the Longmenshan fault zone after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake. Acta Geologica Sinica, 83, 746-753. doi:10.1111/j.1755-6724.2009.00098.x [20] Wu, Z.H., Dong, S.W., Barosh, P.J., Zhang Z.C. and Liao, H.J. (2009) Dextral-slip thrust faulting and seismic events of the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake Longmenshan Mountains, eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Acta Geologica Sinica, 83, 685-693. doi:10.1111/j.1755-6724.2009.00092.x [21] Cao, Z.Q., Xie, P., Jin, H., Chen, Q. and Mao, J.Z. (2003) Variety characteristics of the crustal stress field near the Brahmaputra fault zone. Progress in Geophysics, 18, 167172. [22] Mao, J.Z., Li, F.Q., Zhang, Z.G., Chen, Q., Ceng, J.Q. and Yang, X. (1999) Report on stress measurement by hydraulic fracturing in Yaoji reservoir dam. Institute of Crust Dynamics, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing. [23] An, Q.M., Ding, L.F., Wang, H.Z. and Zhao, S.G. (2004) Research of property and activity of Longmenshan Mountain fault zone. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 24, 115-119. [24] Liao, C.T., Zhang, C.S., Wu, M.L., Ma, Y.S. and Ou, M.Y. (2003) Stress change near the Kunlun Fault before and after the Ms 8.1 Kunlun Earthquake. Geophysical Research Letter, 30, 2027-2030. doi:10.1029/2003GL018106 [25] Zhang, C.S., Wu, M.L., Liao, C.T., Ma, Y.S. and Ou, M.Y. (2007) The result of current stress measurements and stress state analysis in the region of Yangbajain-Kangmar in Tibet. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 50, 517-522. [26] Hudson, J.A. and Feng, X.T. (2010) Variability of in situ rock stress. In: Xue and Furen, Eds., Rock Stress and Earthquakes, CRC Press, Taylor land Francis Group, London, 3-10. [27] Wu, Z.H., Barosh, P.J., Wang, L.J., Hu, D.G. and Wang, W. (2008) Numerical modeling of stress and strain associated with bending of an oil pipeline by a migrating pingo in the permafrost region of the northern Tibetan Plateau. Engineering Geology, 96, 62-77. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.10.001 [28] Shan, B., Xiong, X., Zheng, Y. and Diao, F.Q. (2009) Stress changes on major faults caused by Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, May 12, 2008. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 52, 593-601. doi:10.1007/s11430-009-0060-9 [29] Hori, T. and Kaneda, Y. (2004) Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great intraplate earthquakes. Journal of Seismology, 8, 225-233. doi:10.1023/B:JOSE.0000021364.93301.2a [30] Spudich, P., Guatteri, M., Otsuki, K. and Minagawa, J. (1998) Use of fault striations and dislocation models to infer tectonic stress during the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 88, 413-427. [31] Kato, N. and Hirasawa, T. (1999) The variation of stresses due to aseismic sliding and its effect on seismic activity. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155, 425-442. doi:10.1007/s000240050273 [32] Tiampo, K.F., Bowman, D.D., Colella, H. and Rundle, J.B. (2008) The stress accumulation method and pattern informatics index: Complementary approaches to earthquake forecasting. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 165, 693-709. doi:10.1007/s00024-008-0329-5 [33] Harmann, J. and Levy, K.J. (2006) The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in undergroundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan. Hydrogeology Journal, 4, 1307-1318. doi:10.1007/s10040-006-0030-7