Luminous Shapes with Unusual Motions as Potential Predictors of Earthquakes: A Historical Summary of the Validity and Application of the Tectonic Strain Theory
ABSTRACT
For centuries and on every continent discrete shapes of lights with unusual motions have preceded earthquakes. The numbers of these lights per interval within a region have been strongly correlated with the amount of seismic energy subsequently released within that region. These temporal intervals range between 3 months and 6 months for areas more than 500 kmin radius and less than a month for smaller radii. Other analyses have shown that the same tectonic strain associated with earthquakes is also associated with the display of luminous events before those earthquakes. This strain can be precipitated by injections of fluids into the crust, natural changes in hydrological loads on rivers, or, purposeful displacement of water into reservoirs. The strengths of the associations are sufficient to allow modest forecasting of earthquakes within the boundaries of the region and the temporal interval of analysis. More accurate utilization of these phenomena as prognosticators of specific earthquakes will require a re-evaluation of the manner by which these data are systematically recorded and interpreted.
Cite this paper
M. Persinger and J. Derr, "Luminous Shapes with Unusual Motions as Potential Predictors of Earthquakes: A Historical Summary of the Validity and Application of the Tectonic Strain Theory," International Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 4 No. 2, 2013, pp. 387-396. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2013.42037.
M. Persinger and J. Derr, "Luminous Shapes with Unusual Motions as Potential Predictors of Earthquakes: A Historical Summary of the Validity and Application of the Tectonic Strain Theory," International Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 4 No. 2, 2013, pp. 387-396. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2013.42037.
References
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Man-Made Fluid Injections into the Crust and Reports of Luminous Phenomena Is the Strain Field an Aseismically Propagating Hydrological Pulse?” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 77, 1993, pp. 1059-1065. doi:10.2466/pms.1993.77.3f.1059 [28] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: LIV. Zeitoun (Egypt) Apparitions of the Virgin Mary as Tectonic Strain-Induced Luminosities,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 68, No. 1, 1989, pp. 123-128. doi:10.2466/pms.1989.68.1.123 [29] A. El-Sayed, R. Wahlstrom and O. Kulhanek, “Seismic Hazard of Egypt,” Natural Hazards, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1994, pp. 247-259. doi:10.1007/BF00596145 [30] M. A. Persinger and J. S. Derr, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XIX. Strong Temporal Relationships between Inclusive Seismic Measures and Luminous Reports in Washington State,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 59, No. 2, 1984, pp. 551-556. doi:10.2466/pms.1984.59.2.551 [31] M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XV. 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[1] M. A. Persinger, G. F. Lafreniere and B. T. Dotta, “Marked Increases in Background Photon Emissions in Sudbury Ontario more than One Week before the Magnitude >8.0 Earthquakes in Japan and Chile,” International Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2012, pp. 627-629. doi:10.4236/ijg.2012.33062 [2] F. St-Laurent, “The Saguenay, Quebec Earthquake Lights of November 1988-January 1989: A Comparative Study with Reference to the Geoatmospheric Lights Classification Proposed by Montandon in 1948 and a Description Put Forward by Yasui in 1968,” Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 71, No. 2, 2000, pp. 160-174. doi:10.1785/gssrl.71.2.160 [3] J. Milne, “Earthquakes and Luminous Phenomena,” Nature, Vol. 87, 1911, p. 16. doi:10.1038/087016a0 [4] I. Galli, “Raccolta e Classificazione di Fenomeni Luminosi Osservati Nei Terremoti,” Bolletino Della Societa Italiana, Vol. 14, No. 6-8, 1910, pp. 221-251. [5] T Terada, “On Luminous Phenomena Accompanying Earthquakes,” Bulletin of the Earthquake Institute (Tokyo), Vol. 9, No. 3, 1931, pp. 225-255. [6] J. S. Derr, “Luminous Phenomena and Their Relationship to Rock Fracture,” Nature, Vol. 321, 1986, pp. 470-471. doi:10.1038/321470a0 [7] M. D. Altschuler, L. L. House and E. Hildner, “Is Ball Lightning a Nuclear Phenomena?” Nature, Vol. 228, 1970, pp. 45-46. doi:10.1038/228545a0 [8] D. Finkelstein and J. R. Powell, “Earthquake Lightning,” Nature, Vol. 228, 1970, pp. 759-760. doi:10.1038/228759a0 [9] A. I. Grigoryev, N. I. Gershenzon and M. B. Gokhberg, “Parametric Instability of Water Droplets in an Electric Field as a Possible Mechanism for Luminous Phenomena Accompanying Earthquakes,” Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Vol. 57, No. 1-2, 1989, pp. 139-143. doi:10.1016/0031-9201(89)90223-9 [10] Q. Chen and A. Nur, “Pore Fluid Pressure Effects in Anisotropic Rocks: Mechanisms of Induced Seismicity and Weak Faults,” Pageoph, Vol. 139, No. 3-4, 1992, pp. 463-479. doi:10.1007/BF00879947 [11] Y. H. Ohtsuki and H. Ofuruton, “Plasma Fireballs Formed by Microwave Interference in Air,” Nature, Vol. 350, 1991, pp. 139-141. doi:10.1038/350139a0 [12] M. A. Persinger, “Transient Geophysical Bases for Ostensible ‘UFO-Related’ Phenomena and Associated Verbal Behavior,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 43, No. 1, 1976, pp. 215-221. doi:10.2466/pms.1976.43.1.215 [13] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Luminous Phenomena and Earthquakes in Southern Washington,” Experientia, Vol. 42, No. 9, 1989, pp. 991-999. doi:10.1007/BF01940703 [14] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Luminous Phenomena and Seismic Energy in the Central USA,” Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1990, pp. 55-69. [15] M. A. Persinger and G. F. Lafreniere, “Space-time Transients and Unusual Events,” Nelson-Hall, Chicago, 1977. [16] P. Devereux, “Earthquake Lights Revelation,” Blandford, London, 1989. [17] M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Human Behavior: XVIII. Expected Perceptual Characteristics and Local Distributions of Close UFO Reports,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 58, No. 3, 1984, pp. 951-959. doi:10.2466/pms.1984.58.3.951 [18] M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Human Behavior: IX. Expected Clinical Consequences of Close Proximity to UFO-Related Luminosities,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 56, No. 1, 1983, pp. 259-265. doi:10.2466/pms.1983.56.1.259 [19] M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XXI. Geomagnetic Variations as Possible Enhancement Stimuli for UFO Reports Preceding Earthtremors,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 60, No. 1, 1985, pp. 37-38. doi:10.2466/pms.1985.60.1.37 [20] M. A. Persinger and J. S. Derr, “Geophysical Variables and Human Behavior: XXIII. Relations between UFO Reports within the Uinta Basin and Local Seismicity,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 60, No. 1, 1985, pp. 143-152. doi:10.2466/pms.1985.60.1.143 [21] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Human Behavior: Annual January Rainfall May Modulate the Incidence of Luminous Phenomena within the San Francisco Basin,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 92, 2001, pp. 1180-1190. [22] M. A. Persinger and J. S. Derr, “Geophysical Variables and Human Behavior: LXII. Temporal Coupling of UFO Reports and Seismic Energy Release within the Rio Grande Rift System: Discriminative Validity of the Tectonic Strain Theory,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 71, No. 2, 1990, pp. 567-572. doi:10.2466/pms.1990.71.2.567 [23] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Human Behavior: LXXVI. Seasonal Hydrological Load and Regional Luminous Phenomena within River Systems: The Mississippi Valley Test,” Perceptual and Motor Skill, Vol. 77, No. 3f, 1993, pp. 163-170. doi:10.2466/pms.1993.77.3f.1163 [24] J. K. Costain, G. A. Bollinger and J. A. Speer, “Hydro-seismicity: A Hypothesis for the Role of Water in the Generation of Intraplate Seismicity,” Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 58, No. 3, 1987, pp. 41-60. [25] P. A. Hsieh and J. D. Bredehoeft, “A Reservoir Analysis of the Denver Earthquakes: A Case of Induced Seismicity,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No. B2, 1981, pp. 903-920. doi:10.1029/JB086iB02p00903 [26] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Quasi-Experimental Evidence of the Tectonic Strain Theory of Luminous Phenomena: The Derby, Colorado Earthquakes,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 71, No. 3, 1990, pp. 707-714. doi:10.2466/pms.1990.71.3.707 [27] M. A. Persinger and J. S. Derr, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: LXXIV. Man-Made Fluid Injections into the Crust and Reports of Luminous Phenomena Is the Strain Field an Aseismically Propagating Hydrological Pulse?” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 77, 1993, pp. 1059-1065. doi:10.2466/pms.1993.77.3f.1059 [28] J. S. Derr and M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: LIV. Zeitoun (Egypt) Apparitions of the Virgin Mary as Tectonic Strain-Induced Luminosities,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 68, No. 1, 1989, pp. 123-128. doi:10.2466/pms.1989.68.1.123 [29] A. El-Sayed, R. Wahlstrom and O. Kulhanek, “Seismic Hazard of Egypt,” Natural Hazards, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1994, pp. 247-259. doi:10.1007/BF00596145 [30] M. A. Persinger and J. S. Derr, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XIX. Strong Temporal Relationships between Inclusive Seismic Measures and Luminous Reports in Washington State,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 59, No. 2, 1984, pp. 551-556. doi:10.2466/pms.1984.59.2.551 [31] M. A. Persinger, “Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XV. Tectonic Strain Luminosities as Predictable but Hidden Events within pre-1947 Central USA,” Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 57, No. 3f, 1983, pp. 1227-1234. doi:10.2466/pms.1983.57.3f.1227 [32] M. A. Persinger, “Prediction of Historical and Contemporary Luminosity Reports by Seismic Variables within Western Europe,” Experientia, Vol. 40, No. 7, 1984, pp. 676-681. doi:10.1007/BF01949720 [33] O. Kurtulus, “Faylarin Cevresindeki Tuhaf Gok Olaylari: Deprem Isiklari,” Bilim ve Teknik, Vol. 383, No. 32, 1999, pp. 40-43. [34] T. Rikitake, “Nature of Electromagnetic Emission Precursory to an Earthquake,” Journal of Geomagnetism and Geoelectricity, Vol. 49, No. 9, 1997, pp. 1153-1163. doi:10.5636/jgg.49.1153