NR  Vol.4 No.1 , March 2013
Modeling Resource Use Responses to Macroeconomic Changes: Water in the US Southern Great Plains
ABSTRACT

This study addressed the impacts of the 2008 US recession on water extraction rates from the Ogallala Aquifer in the Southern High Plains of Texas by examining the differences in projected macroeconomic variables and how they impact agricultural production and irrigation water use. The approach used pre- and post-recession FAPRI-based projections of commodity markets and an economic optimization model formulated for the Ogallala Aquifer to simulate water use adjustments. Results indicate that, based on the projections used, the 2008 recession decreased, then increased water use slightly in the representative counties, ceteris paribus, with minimal cumulative effect, and water use responsiveness to economic forces within the region was variable. This analysis also demonstrates that relating policy and economic changes to resource use changes is possible.


Cite this paper
J. Weinheimer, E. Wheeler-Cook, D. Ethridge and D. Hudson, "Modeling Resource Use Responses to Macroeconomic Changes: Water in the US Southern Great Plains," Natural Resources, Vol. 4 No. 1, 2013, pp. 8-19. doi: 10.4236/nr.2013.41002.
References
[1]   Census of Agriculture, “Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey Fact Sheet,” 2008. http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2007/Online_Highlights/Fact_Sheets/fris.pdf

[2]   National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Quick Stats: Agricultural Statistics Data Base,” 2008. http://www.nass.usda.gov/QuickStats

[3]   High Plains Underground Water District, “The Ogallala Aquifer,” 2009. http://www.hpwd.com/the_ogallala.asp

[4]   J. Baek and W. W. Koo, “On the Dynamic Relationship between US Farm Income and Macroeconomic Variables,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 41, No. 2, 2009, pp. 521-528.

[5]   G. E. Schuh, “The Exchange Rate and US Agriculture,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 56, No. 1, 1974, pp. 1-13. doi:10.2307/1239342

[6]   B. Gardner, “On the Power of Macroeconomic Linkages to Explain Events in US Agriculture,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 63, No. 5, 1981, pp. 871-878. doi:10.2307/1241262

[7]   P. Koundouri, “Current Issues in the Economics of Groundwater Resource Management,” Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 18, No. 5, 2004, pp. 703-740. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2004.00234.x

[8]   Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, “FAPRI 2008: US and World Agricultural Outlook,” FAPRI Staff Report 08-FSR 1, 2008.

[9]   Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, “FAPRI 2009: US and World Agricultural Outlook,” FAPRI Staff Report 09-FSR 1, 2009.

[10]   Y. Feng, “Forcasting the Use of Irrigation Systems with Transition Probabilities in Texas,” Texas Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Vol. 5, 1992, pp. 59-66.

[11]   T. S. Arabiyat, “Agricultural Sustainability in the Texas High Plains: The Role of Advanced Irrigation Technology and Biotechnology,” M.S. Thesis, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 1998.

[12]   B. Das, “Towards a Comprehensive Regional Water Policy Model for the Texas High Plains,” Ph.D. Dissertation, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 2004.

[13]   J. W. Johnson, “Regional Policy Alternatives in Response to Depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer,” Ph.D. Dissertation, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 2003.

[14]   B. Terrell, “Economic Impacts of the Depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer: An Application to the Texas High Plains,” M.S. Thesis, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 1998.

[15]   E. A. Wheeler, “Policy Alternatives for the Ogallala Aquifer: Economic and Hydrologic Implications,” M.S. Thesis, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 2004.

[16]   E. Wheeler, B. Golden, J. Johnson and J. Peterson, “Economic Efficiency of Short-Term versus Long-Term Water Rights Buyouts,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 40, No. 2, 2008, pp. 493-501.

[17]   J. A. Weinheimer, “Farm Level Financial Impacts of Water Policy on the Southern Ogallala Aquifer,” Ph.D. Dissertation, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 2008.

[18]   A. Brooke, D. Kendrick, A. Meerdus, R. Raman and R. E. Rosenthal, “GAMS: A User’s Guide,” GAMS Development Corporation, Washington DC, 1998.

[19]   G. Fipps, “Calculating Horsepower Requirements and Sizing Irrigation Supply Pipelines,” Texas Agricultural Extension Service Technical Bulletin B-6011, 1995.

[20]   J. W. Johnson, P. N. Johnson, B. Guerrero, J. Weinheimer, S. Amosson, L. Almas, B. Golden and E. Wheeler-Cook, “Groundwater Policy Research: Collaboration with Groundwater Conservation Districts in Texas,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2011, pp. 345-356.

[21]   S. L. Amosson, L. Almas, B. Golden, B. Guerrero, J. Johnson, R. Taylor and E. Wheeler-Cook, “Economic Impacts of Selected Water Conservation Policies in the Ogallala Aquifer,” Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, Staff Paper No. 09-04, 2009.

[22]   T. J. Gerik, W. L. Harman, J. R. Williams, L. Francis, J. Greiner, E. Steglich, M. G. Magre and A. Meinerdus, “Crop Production and Management Model (CropMan) Version 3.2,” Blackland Research Center, Temple, 2003.

[23]   Texas Water Development Board, “Survey of Irrigation in Texas,” Report 347, 2001. http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/publications/reports/GroundWaterReports/GWReports/R347.pdf

[24]   Texas Tech Center for Geospatial Technology, “Texas Ogallala Summary,” 2009. http://www.gis.ttu.edu/OgallalaAquiferMaps/Default.aspx

[25]   R. D. Lacewell and J. C. Pearce, “Model to Evaluate Alternative Irrigation Systems with an Exhaustible Water Supply,” Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1973, pp. 15-21.

[26]   J. N. Stovall, “Groundwater Modeling for the Southern High Plains,” Ph.D. dissertation, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 2001.

[27]   Texas Agrilife Extension Budgets, “Extension Agricultural Economics,” 2009. http://agecoext.tamu.edu/resources/crop-livestock-budgets/by-district/district-2/2008.html

 
 
Top