The Dependence of Reported Homicide Rates on Reported Non-Motor Vehicle Accident Death Rates in US Young Children and Infants, 1940-2007
Affiliation(s)
Department of Neurology, West Virginia University, Morgantown, USA. Department of Statistics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, USA.
Department of Neurology, West Virginia University, Morgantown, USA. Department of Statistics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, USA.
ABSTRACT
An analysis of the relationship between reported homicides and reported non-motor vehicle accident deaths in young children and infants was performed. Reported young child (aged 1 to less than 5 years) and infant (aged less than 1 year) homicide and non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates in boys and girls in the United States from 1940 to 2007 were analyzed using the 4-parameter logistic model. Homicide rate growth over time displayed sigmoid curves with inflection points near 1968 in young children and near 1984 in infants. Using the maximum and minimum homicide rate asymptotes from those analyses over time, 4-parameter logistic model between homicide rates and non-motor vehicle mortality rates suggests that 84.2% and 94.2% of the variation in young child homicide rates, in boys and girls respectively, can be explained by variation in the corresponding non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates and that 69.4% and 66.3% of the variation in infant homicide rates, in boys and girls respectively, was explained by variation in the corresponding non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates. These findings are consistent with the thesis that changing propensities in the classification of young child and infant deaths as either homicides or non-motor vehicle accident deaths, rather than actual changes in societal violence, may explain a substantial proportion of the reported increases in homicide rates in young children and infants. Moreover, the observation that increases in homicide rates in young children and infants were separated in time by nearly 16 years further supports this thesis.
An analysis of the relationship between reported homicides and reported non-motor vehicle accident deaths in young children and infants was performed. Reported young child (aged 1 to less than 5 years) and infant (aged less than 1 year) homicide and non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates in boys and girls in the United States from 1940 to 2007 were analyzed using the 4-parameter logistic model. Homicide rate growth over time displayed sigmoid curves with inflection points near 1968 in young children and near 1984 in infants. Using the maximum and minimum homicide rate asymptotes from those analyses over time, 4-parameter logistic model between homicide rates and non-motor vehicle mortality rates suggests that 84.2% and 94.2% of the variation in young child homicide rates, in boys and girls respectively, can be explained by variation in the corresponding non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates and that 69.4% and 66.3% of the variation in infant homicide rates, in boys and girls respectively, was explained by variation in the corresponding non-motor vehicle accident mortality rates. These findings are consistent with the thesis that changing propensities in the classification of young child and infant deaths as either homicides or non-motor vehicle accident deaths, rather than actual changes in societal violence, may explain a substantial proportion of the reported increases in homicide rates in young children and infants. Moreover, the observation that increases in homicide rates in young children and infants were separated in time by nearly 16 years further supports this thesis.
KEYWORDS
Accidental Death Rates; Child; Classification; Homicide Rates; Infant; Mutually Exclusive Events
Accidental Death Rates; Child; Classification; Homicide Rates; Infant; Mutually Exclusive Events
Cite this paper
Riggs, J. & Hobbs, G. (2013). The Dependence of Reported Homicide Rates on Reported Non-Motor Vehicle Accident Death Rates in US Young Children and Infants, 1940-2007. Advances in Applied Sociology, 3, 13-19. doi: 10.4236/aasoci.2013.31002.
Riggs, J. & Hobbs, G. (2013). The Dependence of Reported Homicide Rates on Reported Non-Motor Vehicle Accident Death Rates in US Young Children and Infants, 1940-2007. Advances in Applied Sociology, 3, 13-19. doi: 10.4236/aasoci.2013.31002.
References
[1] Adelson, L. (1961). Slaughter of the innocents, a study of forty-six homicides in which the victims were children. New England Journal of Medicine, 264, 1345-1349. doi:10.1056/NEJM196106292642606 [2] Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., & Wallis, J. R. (1972). Ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth. Journal of Ecology, 60, 849-872. doi:10.2307/2258570 [3] Brenner, R. A., Overpeck, M. D., Trumble, A. C., DerSimonian, R., & Brenendes, H. (1999). Deaths attributable to injuries in infants, United States, 1983-1991. Pediatrics, 103, 968-974. doi:10.1542/peds.103.5.968 [4] Cappelleri, J. C., Eckenrode, J., & Powers, J. L. (1993). The epidemiology of child abuse: Findings from the Second National Incidence and Prevalence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect. American Journal of Public Health, 83, 1622-1624. doi:10.2105/AJPH.83.11.1622 [5] Chiang, C. H. (1991). Competing risks in mortality analysis. Annual Review of Public Health, 12, 281-307. doi:10.1146/annurev.pu.12.050191.001433 [6] Crume, T. L., DiGuiseppi, C., Byers, T., Sirotnak, A. P., & Garrett, C. J. (2002). Under ascertainment of child maltreatment fatalities by death certificates, 1990-1998. Pediatrics, 110, e18. doi:10.1542/peds.110.2.e18 [7] Dubowitz, H., & Bennett, S. (2007). Physical abuse and neglect of children. Lancet, 369, 1891-1899. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60856-3 [8] Friedman, S. H., Horwitz, S. M., & Resnick, P. J. (2005). Child murder by mothers: A critical analysis of the current state of knowledge and a research agenda. American Journal of Psychiatry, 162, 1578-1587. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.162.9.1578 [9] Herman-Giddens, M. E., Brown, G., Verbiest, S., Carlson, P. J., Hooten, E. G., Howell, E., & Butts, J. D. (1999). Under ascertainment of child abuse mortality in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association, 282, 463-467. doi:10.1001/jama.282.5.463 [10] Jain, A., Koshnood, B., Lee, K. S., & Conato, J. (2001). Injury related infant death: The impact of race and birth weight. Injury Prevention, 7, 135-140. doi:10.1136/ip.7.2.135 [11] Jenny, C., & Isaac, R. (2006). The relation between child death and child maltreatment. Archives of Disease in Childhood, 91, 265-269. doi:10.1136/adc.2004.066696 [12] Kempe, C. H., Silverman, F. N., Steele, B. F., Droegemueller, W., & Silver, H. K. (1962). The battered-child syndrome. Journal of the American Medical Association, 181, 17-24. doi:10.1001/jama.1962.03050270019004 [13] Nielssen, O. B., Large, M. N., Westmore, B. D., & Lackersteen, S. M. (2009). Child homicide in New South Wales from 1991 to 2005. Medical Journal of Australia, 190, 7-11. [14] Overpeck, M. D., Brenner, R. A., Trumble, A. C., Trifiletti, L. B., & Brenendes, H. W. (1998). Risk factors for infant homicide in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine, 339, 1211-1216. doi:10.1056/NEJM199810223391706 [15] Powell, M. R., Tamplin, M., Marks, B., & Campos, D. T. (2006). Bayesian synthesis of a pathogen growth model: Listeria monocytogenes under competition. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 109, 34-46. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2006.01.007 [16] Reece, R. M., & Sege, R. (2000). Childhood head injuries, accidental or inflicted? Arch Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, 154, 11-15. [17] Riggs, J. E., & Hobbs, G. R. (2011). Infant homicide and accidental death in the United States, 1940-2005: Ethics and epidemiological classification. Journal of Medical Ethics, 37, 445-448. doi:10.1136/jme.2010.041053 [18] Riggs, J. E., & Hobbs, G. R. (2012). Young child homicide and accidental death rates in the United States, 1940-2005: Classification issues in mutually exclusive events. Sociology Mind, 2, 148-152. doi:10.4236/sm.2012.22019 [19] Smith, F. E. (1952). Experimental methods in population dynamics: A critique. Ecology, 33, 441-450. doi:10.2307/1931519 [20] Southwood, T. R. E., & Comins, H. N. (1976). A syntopic population model. Journal of Animal Ecology, 45, 949-965. doi:10.2307/3591 [21] Tsoularis, A., & Wallace, J. (2002). Analysis of logistic growth models. Mathamatical Biosciences, 179, 21-55. doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00096-2 [22] Tung, G. A., Kumar, M., Richardson, R. C., Jenny, C., & Brown, W. D. (2006). Comparison of accidental and non-accidental head injury in children on noncontrast computed tomography. Pediatrics, 118, 626-633. doi:10.1542/peds.2006-0130 [23] Weiss, P., & Kavanau, J. L. (1957). A model of growth and growth control in mathematical terms. Journal of General Physiology, 41, 1-47. doi:10.1085/jgp.41.1.1 [24] Zeide, B. (1993). Analysis of growth equations. Forest Science, 39, 594-616.
[1] Adelson, L. (1961). Slaughter of the innocents, a study of forty-six homicides in which the victims were children. New England Journal of Medicine, 264, 1345-1349. doi:10.1056/NEJM196106292642606 [2] Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., & Wallis, J. R. (1972). Ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth. Journal of Ecology, 60, 849-872. doi:10.2307/2258570 [3] Brenner, R. A., Overpeck, M. D., Trumble, A. C., DerSimonian, R., & Brenendes, H. (1999). Deaths attributable to injuries in infants, United States, 1983-1991. Pediatrics, 103, 968-974. doi:10.1542/peds.103.5.968 [4] Cappelleri, J. C., Eckenrode, J., & Powers, J. L. (1993). The epidemiology of child abuse: Findings from the Second National Incidence and Prevalence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect. American Journal of Public Health, 83, 1622-1624. doi:10.2105/AJPH.83.11.1622 [5] Chiang, C. H. (1991). Competing risks in mortality analysis. Annual Review of Public Health, 12, 281-307. doi:10.1146/annurev.pu.12.050191.001433 [6] Crume, T. L., DiGuiseppi, C., Byers, T., Sirotnak, A. P., & Garrett, C. J. (2002). Under ascertainment of child maltreatment fatalities by death certificates, 1990-1998. Pediatrics, 110, e18. doi:10.1542/peds.110.2.e18 [7] Dubowitz, H., & Bennett, S. (2007). Physical abuse and neglect of children. Lancet, 369, 1891-1899. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60856-3 [8] Friedman, S. H., Horwitz, S. M., & Resnick, P. J. (2005). Child murder by mothers: A critical analysis of the current state of knowledge and a research agenda. American Journal of Psychiatry, 162, 1578-1587. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.162.9.1578 [9] Herman-Giddens, M. E., Brown, G., Verbiest, S., Carlson, P. J., Hooten, E. G., Howell, E., & Butts, J. D. (1999). Under ascertainment of child abuse mortality in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association, 282, 463-467. doi:10.1001/jama.282.5.463 [10] Jain, A., Koshnood, B., Lee, K. S., & Conato, J. (2001). Injury related infant death: The impact of race and birth weight. Injury Prevention, 7, 135-140. doi:10.1136/ip.7.2.135 [11] Jenny, C., & Isaac, R. (2006). The relation between child death and child maltreatment. Archives of Disease in Childhood, 91, 265-269. doi:10.1136/adc.2004.066696 [12] Kempe, C. H., Silverman, F. N., Steele, B. F., Droegemueller, W., & Silver, H. K. (1962). The battered-child syndrome. Journal of the American Medical Association, 181, 17-24. doi:10.1001/jama.1962.03050270019004 [13] Nielssen, O. B., Large, M. N., Westmore, B. D., & Lackersteen, S. M. (2009). Child homicide in New South Wales from 1991 to 2005. Medical Journal of Australia, 190, 7-11. [14] Overpeck, M. D., Brenner, R. A., Trumble, A. C., Trifiletti, L. B., & Brenendes, H. W. (1998). Risk factors for infant homicide in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine, 339, 1211-1216. doi:10.1056/NEJM199810223391706 [15] Powell, M. R., Tamplin, M., Marks, B., & Campos, D. T. (2006). Bayesian synthesis of a pathogen growth model: Listeria monocytogenes under competition. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 109, 34-46. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2006.01.007 [16] Reece, R. M., & Sege, R. (2000). Childhood head injuries, accidental or inflicted? Arch Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, 154, 11-15. [17] Riggs, J. E., & Hobbs, G. R. (2011). Infant homicide and accidental death in the United States, 1940-2005: Ethics and epidemiological classification. Journal of Medical Ethics, 37, 445-448. doi:10.1136/jme.2010.041053 [18] Riggs, J. E., & Hobbs, G. R. (2012). Young child homicide and accidental death rates in the United States, 1940-2005: Classification issues in mutually exclusive events. Sociology Mind, 2, 148-152. doi:10.4236/sm.2012.22019 [19] Smith, F. E. (1952). Experimental methods in population dynamics: A critique. Ecology, 33, 441-450. doi:10.2307/1931519 [20] Southwood, T. R. E., & Comins, H. N. (1976). A syntopic population model. Journal of Animal Ecology, 45, 949-965. doi:10.2307/3591 [21] Tsoularis, A., & Wallace, J. (2002). Analysis of logistic growth models. Mathamatical Biosciences, 179, 21-55. doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00096-2 [22] Tung, G. A., Kumar, M., Richardson, R. C., Jenny, C., & Brown, W. D. (2006). Comparison of accidental and non-accidental head injury in children on noncontrast computed tomography. Pediatrics, 118, 626-633. doi:10.1542/peds.2006-0130 [23] Weiss, P., & Kavanau, J. L. (1957). A model of growth and growth control in mathematical terms. Journal of General Physiology, 41, 1-47. doi:10.1085/jgp.41.1.1 [24] Zeide, B. (1993). Analysis of growth equations. Forest Science, 39, 594-616.