ABSTRACT Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in survival curves of industrialized countries, which is described by extended Weibull model with agedependent stretched exponent. The maximum survival ten
dency suggests that human survival dynamics may possess its intrinsic limit, beyond which survival is inevitably forbidden. Based on such tendency, we develop the model and explore the patterns in the maximum lifespan limits from industrialized countries during recent three decades. This analysis strategy is simple and useful to interpret the complicated human survival dynamics.
Cite this paper
Weon, B. and Je, J. (2010) Predicting human lifespan limits. Natural Science, 2, 984-989. doi: 10.4236/ns.2010.29120.
 Vaupel, J.W. (1997) The remarkable improvements in survival at older ages. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B, 352(1363), 17991804.
Vaupel, J.W., Carey, J.R., Christensen, K., Johnson, T.E., Yashin, A.I., Holm, N.V., Iachine, I.A., Kannisto, V., Khazaeli, A.Z., Liedo, P., Longo, V.D., Zeng, Y., Man ton, K.G. and Curtsinger, J.W. (1998) Biodemographic tra jectories of longevity. Science, 280(5365), 855860.
Wilmoth, J.R. and Horiuchi, S. (1999) Rectangularization revisited: Variability of age at death within human popu lations. Demography, 36(4), 475495.
Wilmoth, J.R., Deegan, L.J., Lundstrom, H. and Horiuch, S. (2000) Increase of maximum lifespan in Sweden, 18611999. Science, 289(5488), 23662368.
Oeppen, J. and Vaupel, J.W. (2002) Broken limits to life expectancy. Science, 296(5570), 10291031.
Nemoto, S. and Finkel, T. (2004) Ageing and the mystery at Arles. Nature, 429(6988), 149152.
Vijg, J. and Campisi, J. (2008) Puzzles, promises and a cure for ageing. Nature, 454(7208), 10651071.
Couzin, J. (2005) How much can human life span be extended. Science, 309(5731), 83.
Butler, R.N., Miller, R.A., Perry, D., Carnes, B.A., Wil liams, T.F., Cassel, C., Brody, J., Bernard, M.A., Par tridge, L., Kirkwood, T.B.L., Martin, G.M. and Olshansky, S.J. (2008) New model of health promotion and disease prevention for the 21st century. British Medical Journal, 337(7662), 149150.
Mair, W. and Dillin, A. (2008) Aging and survival: The ge netics of life span extension by dietary restriction. Annual Review of Biochemistry, 77(1), 727754.
Hayflick, L. (2000) The future of ageing. Nature, 408(6809), 267269.
Takahashi, Y., Kuroo, M. and Ishikawa, F. (2000) Aging mechanisms. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 97(23), 1240712408.
Weon, B.M., Lee, J.L. and Je, J.H. (2005) A unified decay formula for luminescence decays. Journal of Applied Physics, 98(9), 096101.
Weon, B.M., Je, J.H. and Lee, J.L. (2007) Lifetime dispersion in a single quantum dot. Applied Physics A, 89(4), 10291031.
Weon, B.M. and Je, J.H. (2009) Theoretical estimation of maximum human lifespan. Biogerontology, 10(1), 6571.
Gompertz, B. (1825) On the nature of the function ex pressive of the law of human mortality and on a new mode of determining life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A, 115 (1825), 513585.
Weibull, W.A. (1951) A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. Journal of Applied Mechanics, 18(3), 293297.
Finch, C.E. and Pike, M.C. (1996) Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model. Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 51(3), B183B194.
Fries, J.F. (1980) Aging, natural death, and the compres sion of morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine, 303(3), 130135.
Vita, A.J., Terry, R.B., Hubert, H.B. and Fries, J.F. (1998) Aging, health risks, and cumulative disability. New England Journal of Medicine, 338(15), 10351041.
Gavrilov, L.A. and Gavrilova, N.S. (2001) The reliability theory of aging and longevity. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 213(4), 527545.
Carnes, B.A., Olshansky, S.J. and Grahn, D. (2003) Bio logical evidence for limits to the duration of life. Bio gerontology, 4(1), 3145.
Kirkwood, T.B.L. (2005) Understanding the odd science of aging. Cell, 120(4), 437447.
Cohen, J.E. (2003) Human population: The next half century. Science, 302(5648), 11721175.
Olshansky, S.J., Passaro, D.J., Hershow, R.C., Layden, J., Carnes, B.A., Brody, J., Hayflick, L., Butler, R.N., Allison, D.B. and Ludwig, D.S. (2005) A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century. New England Journal of Medicine, 352(11), 11381145.
Farrant, A. (2009) The fair innings argument and in creasing life spans. Journal of Medical Ethics, 35(1), 5356.
Kirkwood, T.B.L. (2008) Gerontology: Healthy old age. Nature, 455, 739740.
Lakshminarayanan, E.S. and Sumathi, M. On extended Weibull model. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Applications, in press.
Kaplan, H.S. and Robson, A.J. (2009) We age because we grow. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 276(1663), 18371844.