ABSTRACT This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.
Cite this paper
L. Wan, B. Luo, H. Ji and W. Yan, "A Type of Combination Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Method and PLS," American Journal of Operations Research, Vol. 2 No. 4, 2012, pp. 467-472. doi: 10.4236/ajor.2012.24055.
 Z.-Z. Mao, G.-H. Yang, J.-M, Ma, S. Jon and C. Marion, “Adults’ Demand of Cigarettes and its Influencing Factors in China,” Soft Science of Health, Vol. 17, No. 2, 2003, pp. 19-23.
 X. Xu, T. Hu and T. Keeler, “Optimal Cigarette Taxation: Theory and Estimation,” Working Paper, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, 1998, pp. 2-15.
 P. M. L, J. S. Akin, W. H. Dow, et a1., “Is Cigarette Smoking in Poorer Nations Highly Sensitive to Price,” Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2004, pp. 173-189. doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2003.09.004
 Y.-L. Bai, Y.-L. Wu and X.-S. Cheng, “An Analysis of Cigarette Demand in China (I)—Current Status and Model Building,” Acta Tabacaria Sinica, Vol. 13, No. 3, 2007, pp. 6-10.
 Y.-L. Bai, Y.-L. Wu and X.-S. Cheng, “An Analysis of Cigarette Demand in China (II)—Demonstration Analysis and Conclusion,” Acta Tabacaria Sinica, Vol. 13, No. 4, 2007, pp. 55-59.
 Z.-Y. Hu, J.-J. Wang and C.-Q. Ma, “Empirical Analysis of Impact Factors of Electricity Power Consumption in Hunan Province Based on PLS,” Systems Engineering, Vol. 24, No. 9, 2006, pp. 98-102.
 H.-W. Wang, Z.-B. Wu and J. Meng, “The Linear and Nonlinear Method of Partial Least-Square Regression,” National Defence Industry Press, Beijing, 2006.
 W. Li, H.-W. Chen, J.-H. Zhou, B.-D. Zhao, Y.-Y. Zhang, H.-Q. Yang, S.-P. Zheng and J. Liu, “Study on the Situation of Cigarettes Consumption and its Main Affecting Economic Indexes in China—A Case Study on Zhangzhou in Fujian,” Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), Vol. 12, No. 4, 2009, pp. 46-49.
 Z. Xiao and W. Wu, “The Application of Combining Forecasting Based on PSO-PLS to GDP,” Journal of Management Science, Vol. 21, No. 3, 2008, pp. 115-122.
 S. Wold, C. Albano and M. Dun, “Pattern Regression Finding and Using Regularities in Multivariate Data,” Analysis Applied Science Publication, London, 1983.
 S. Wold, C. Albano and M. Dun, “Modelling Data Tables by Principal Component and PLS: Class Patterns and Quantitative Predictive Relations,” Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 10, 1984, pp. 477-485.
 A. H?skuldsson, “A PLS Regression Methods,” Journal of Chemometrics, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1988, pp. 211-228.
 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “China Statistics Yearbook 2010,” China Statistics Press, Beijing, 2011.
 D.-H. Yi, “Data Analysis and EViews Application,” China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2008.