A Basis for Improving Numerical Forecasting in the Gulf Area by Assimilating Doppler Radar Radial Winds

ABSTRACT

An approach to assimilate Doppler radar radial winds into a high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model using 3D-Var system is described. We discuss the types of errors that occur in radar radial winds. Some related problems such as nonlinearity and sensitivity of the forecast to possible small errors in initial conditions, random observation errors, and the background states are also considered. The technique can be used to improve the model forecasts, in the Gulf area, at the local scale and under high aerosol (dust/sand/pollution) conditions.

An approach to assimilate Doppler radar radial winds into a high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model using 3D-Var system is described. We discuss the types of errors that occur in radar radial winds. Some related problems such as nonlinearity and sensitivity of the forecast to possible small errors in initial conditions, random observation errors, and the background states are also considered. The technique can be used to improve the model forecasts, in the Gulf area, at the local scale and under high aerosol (dust/sand/pollution) conditions.

Cite this paper

nullF. Rihan and C. Collier, "A Basis for Improving Numerical Forecasting in the Gulf Area by Assimilating Doppler Radar Radial Winds,"*International Journal of Geosciences*, Vol. 1 No. 2, 2010, pp. 70-78. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2010.12010.

nullF. Rihan and C. Collier, "A Basis for Improving Numerical Forecasting in the Gulf Area by Assimilating Doppler Radar Radial Winds,"

References

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[4] S. G. Benjamin, D. Dévényi, S. Weygondt, K. J. Brundaye, J. M. Brown, G. A. Grell, D. Kim, B. E. Schwartz, T. G. Mirnova, T. L. Smith and G. S. Monikin, “An Hourly Assimilation Precsent Cycle: The RUC,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 132, No. 11, 2004, pp. 494-518.

[5] M. Lindskog, H. Jarvinen, D. B. Michelson, “Develop-ment of Doppler Radar Wind Data Assimilation for the HIRLAM 3D-Var,” COST-717, 2002.

[6] F. A. Rihan, C. G. Collier and I. Roulstone, “Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation for Doppler Radar Wind Data,” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 176, No. 1, 2005, pp. 15-34.

[7] J. Sun and N. A. Crook, “Dynamical and Physical Re-trieval from Doppler Radar Observations Using a Cloud Model and its Adjoint. Part II: Retrieval Experiments of an Observed Florida Convective Storm,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 55, No. 5, 1998, pp. 835-852.

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[10] J. Gong, L. Wang and Q. Xu, “A Three Step Dealiasing Method for Doppler Velocity Data Quality Control,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 20, No. 12, 2003, pp 1738-1748.

[11] Y. Lin, P. S. Ray and K. W. Johnson, “Initialization for a Modeled Convective Storm Using Doppler Radar Data- Derived Fields,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 124, No. 1, 1993, pp. 2757-2775.

[12] P. T. May, T. Sato, M. Yamamoto, S. Kato, T. Tsuda and S. Fakao, “Errors in the Determination of Wind Speed by Doppler Radar,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1989, pp. 235-242.

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[14] Q. Xu and J. Gong, “Background Error Covariance Func-tions for Doppler Radial Wind Analysis,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 129, No. 590, 2003, pp. 1703-1720.

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[16] L. J. Miller and J. Sun, “Initialization and Forecasting of Thrundstorms: Specification of Radar Measurement Er-rors,” 31th Conference on Radar Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Seattle, Washington, 2003, pp. 146-149.

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[23] K. A. Browning, J. H. Marsham, A. M. Blyth, S. D. Mobbs, J. C. Nochol, M. Perry and B. A. Wite, “Obser-vations of Dual Slantwise Circulations above a Cool Un-dercurrent in a Mesocale Convective Storm,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, No. 647, 2009, pp. 354-373.

[24] R. J. Doviak and D. S. Zrnic, Doppler Radar Weather Observations, 2nd Edition, Academic Press, London/San Diego, 1993.

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[27] K. Salonen, “Observation Operator for Doppler Radar Radial Winds in HIRLAM 3D-Var,” Proceedings of ERAD, 2002, pp. 405-408.

[28] R. Daley, Atmospheric Data Analysis, Cambridge Uni-versity Press, Cambridge, 1996.

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[30] E. Kalnay, Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Prectipility, Cambrige Press, Cambridge, 2003.

[1] F. A. Rihan, C. G. Collier, S. Ballard and S. Swarbrick, “Assimilation of Doppler Radial Winds into a 3D-Var System: Errors and Impact of Radial Velocities on the Variational Analysis and Model Forecasts,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, No. 636, 2008, pp. 1701-1716.

[2] C. G. Collier, Ed., “COST-75, Project, Advanced Weather Radar Systems 1993-1996,” European Commission EUR 1954, Brussels, 2001, p. 362.

[3] R. Krzysztofowicz and C. G. Collier, Eds., “Quantitative Preceptation Forecasting II,” Special Issue of Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 288, No. 1-2, 2004, pp. 225-236.

[4] S. G. Benjamin, D. Dévényi, S. Weygondt, K. J. Brundaye, J. M. Brown, G. A. Grell, D. Kim, B. E. Schwartz, T. G. Mirnova, T. L. Smith and G. S. Monikin, “An Hourly Assimilation Precsent Cycle: The RUC,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 132, No. 11, 2004, pp. 494-518.

[5] M. Lindskog, H. Jarvinen, D. B. Michelson, “Develop-ment of Doppler Radar Wind Data Assimilation for the HIRLAM 3D-Var,” COST-717, 2002.

[6] F. A. Rihan, C. G. Collier and I. Roulstone, “Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation for Doppler Radar Wind Data,” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 176, No. 1, 2005, pp. 15-34.

[7] J. Sun and N. A. Crook, “Dynamical and Physical Re-trieval from Doppler Radar Observations Using a Cloud Model and its Adjoint. Part II: Retrieval Experiments of an Observed Florida Convective Storm,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 55, No. 5, 1998, pp. 835-852.

[8] J. Sun and N. A. Crook, “Dynamical and Microphysical Retrieval from Doppler Radar Observations Using a Cloud Model and its Adjoint. Part I: Model Development and Simulated Data Experiments,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 54, No. 12, 1997, pp. 1642-1661.

[9] J. D. Doviak and D. S. Zrnic, Doppler Radar Weather Observations, 2nd Edition, Academic Press, London/San Diego, 1993.

[10] J. Gong, L. Wang and Q. Xu, “A Three Step Dealiasing Method for Doppler Velocity Data Quality Control,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 20, No. 12, 2003, pp 1738-1748.

[11] Y. Lin, P. S. Ray and K. W. Johnson, “Initialization for a Modeled Convective Storm Using Doppler Radar Data- Derived Fields,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 124, No. 1, 1993, pp. 2757-2775.

[12] P. T. May, T. Sato, M. Yamamoto, S. Kato, T. Tsuda and S. Fakao, “Errors in the Determination of Wind Speed by Doppler Radar,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1989, pp. 235-242.

[13] P. Saarikivi, “Simulation Model of a Signal Doppler Radar Velocity,” University of Helsiriki, Department of Meteorology, Technology Report 4, 1987, p. 22.

[14] Q. Xu and J. Gong, “Background Error Covariance Func-tions for Doppler Radial Wind Analysis,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 129, No. 590, 2003, pp. 1703-1720.

[15] A. C. Lorenc, “Development of an Operational Variational Scheme,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 75, No. 2, 1997, pp 339-346.

[16] L. J. Miller and J. Sun, “Initialization and Forecasting of Thrundstorms: Specification of Radar Measurement Er-rors,” 31th Conference on Radar Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Seattle, Washington, 2003, pp. 146-149.

[17] R. J. Purser and R. McQuigg, “A Successive Correction Analysis Scheme Using Numerical Filter,” Met Office Technical Note, Vol. 154, 1982, p. 17.

[18] A. C. Lorenc, “Iterative Analysis Using Covariance Func- tions and Filters,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteo-rological Society, Vol. 118, No. 505, 1992, pp. 569-591.

[19] C. M. Hayden and R. J. Purser, “Recursive Filter for Ob-jective Analysis of Meteorological Fields: Applications to NESDIS Operational Processing,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 34, No. 1, 1995, pp. 3-15.

[20] D. G. Cacuci, “Sensitivity Theory for Nonlinear Systems, I: Nonlinear Functional Analysis Approach,” Journal of Mathematical Physics, Vol. 22, No. 12, 1981, pp. 2794- 2802.

[21] D. G. Cacuci, “Sensitivity Theory for Nonlinear Systems, II: Extensions to Additional Classes of Response,” Jour-nal of Mathematical Physics, Vol. 22. No. 12, 1981, pp 2803-2812.

[22] S. Lovejoy, A. F. Tuck, S. J. Hovde and D. Schertzer, “Do Stable Atmospheric Layers Exist?” Geophysical Re-search Letters, Vol. 35, No. 1, 2008, pp. 1-4.

[23] K. A. Browning, J. H. Marsham, A. M. Blyth, S. D. Mobbs, J. C. Nochol, M. Perry and B. A. Wite, “Obser-vations of Dual Slantwise Circulations above a Cool Un-dercurrent in a Mesocale Convective Storm,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, No. 647, 2009, pp. 354-373.

[24] R. J. Doviak and D. S. Zrnic, Doppler Radar Weather Observations, 2nd Edition, Academic Press, London/San Diego, 1993.

[25] G. D. Nastrom, “Doppler Radar Spectral Width Broa-dening Due to Beamwidth and Wind Shear,” Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 15, No. 6, 1997, pp 786-796.

[26] M. Lindskog, M. Gustafsson, B. Navascuès, K. S. Mo-gensen, X.-Y. Huang, X. Yang, U. Andrae, L. Berre, Thorsteinsson and J. Rantakokko, “Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation for a Limited Area Model, Part II: Observation Handling and Assimilation Experi-ments,” Tellus A, Vol. 53, No. 4, 2001, pp. 447-468.

[27] K. Salonen, “Observation Operator for Doppler Radar Radial Winds in HIRLAM 3D-Var,” Proceedings of ERAD, 2002, pp. 405-408.

[28] R. Daley, Atmospheric Data Analysis, Cambridge Uni-versity Press, Cambridge, 1996.

[29] I. N. Jame, Introduction to Circulating Atmospheres, Cambidge University Press, Cambridge, 1994.

[30] E. Kalnay, Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Prectipility, Cambrige Press, Cambridge, 2003.