Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)
Affiliation(s)
AmirKabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic). Sharif University of Technology.
AmirKabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic). Sharif University of Technology.
ABSTRACT
Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990’s, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.
Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990’s, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.
Cite this paper
R. Maknoon, M. Kazem and M. Hasanzadeh, "Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)," Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 4 No. 9, 2012, pp. 750-758. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2012.49085.
R. Maknoon, M. Kazem and M. Hasanzadeh, "Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)," Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 4 No. 9, 2012, pp. 750-758. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2012.49085.
References
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[1] G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters and W. Hazeleger, “Skill in the Trend and Internal Variability in a Multi-Model Decadal Prediction Ensemble,” Climate Dynamics, Vol. 3, No. 7, 2012, pp. 1263-1280. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4 [2] Y. Chikamoto, M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, T. Sakamoto, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, M. Watanabe, T. No- zawa, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka and Y. Imada, “An Overview of Decadal Climate Predictability in a Multi-Model Ensemble by Climate Model MIROC,” Cli- mate Dynamic, 2012. [3] H. Kunstmann, G. Jung, S. Wagner and H. Clotte, “Inte- gration of Atmospheric Sciences and Hydrology for the Development of Decision Support Systems Sustainable Water Management,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, 2008, pp. 165-174. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2007.04.010 [4] A. Serrat-Capdevila, J. B. Valdésa, J. G. Péreze, K. Baird, J. Mafa and T. Maddock, “Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Uncertainty on the Hydrology of a Riparian System: The San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora),” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 347, No. 1-2, 2007, pp. 48-66. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.08.028 [5] L. Andersson, J. Wilk, M. C. Todd, D. A. Hughes, A. Earle, D. Kniveton, R. Layberry and H. G. Savenije, “Impact of Climate Change and Development Scenarios on Flow Patterns in the Okavango River,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 331, No. 1-2, 2006, pp. 43-57. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.039 [6] A. Wolf, “Conflict and Cooperation along International Waterways,” Water Policy, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1998, pp. 251- 265. doi:10.1016/S1366-7017(98)00019-1 [7] M. Giordano and A. Wolf, “Sharing Waters: Post-Rio International Water Management,” Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 27, No. 2, 2003, pp.163-171. doi:10.1111/1477-8947.00051 [8] R. Ghanadan and J. B. Koombey, “Using Energy Scenarios to Explore Alternative Energy Pathways in California,” Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 9, 2005, pp. 1117-1142. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.11.011 [9] A. Oniszk-Poplawska and M. Rogulska, “Renewable- Energy Developments in Poland to 2020,” Applied Energy, Vol. 1-3, No. 76, 2003, pp. 101-110. doi:10.1016/S0306-2619(03)00051-5 [10] M. Eames, “The Development and Use of the UK Environmental Future Scenarios: Perspectives from Cultural Theory,” Greener Management International, Vol. 37, 2002, pp. 53-70. [11] K. Ito and Y. Uchiyama, “Study on GHG Control Scenarios by Life Cycle Analysis—World Energy Outlook until 2100,” Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 38, 1997, pp. 607-614. doi:10.1016/S0196-8904(97)00004-6 [12] T. D. Mitchell, T. R. Carter, P. D. Jones, M. Hulme and M. New, “A Comprehensive Set of High-Resolution Grids of Monthly Climate for Europe and the Globe: The Observed Record (1901-2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001- 2100),” Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 55, 2004. [13] L. R. Gardner, “Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Mean Annual Runoff,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 379, No. 3-4, 2009, pp. 351-359. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.021 [14] L. Graham, J. Andréasson and B. Carlsson, “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology from an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models, Model Scales and Linking Methods: A Case Study on the Lule River Basin,” Climate Change, Vol. 81, 2007, pp. 293-307. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9215-2 [15] D. L. Chen, et al., “Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation,” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 23, 2006, pp. 54-60. doi:10.1007/s00376-006-0006-5 [16] R. E. Benestad, “Tentative Probabilistic Temperature Scenarios for Northern Europe,” Tellus Series A: Dyna- mic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 56, 2004, pp. 89-101. [17] T. R. Carter, et al., “Developing and Applying Scenarios in Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability IPCC,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001, pp. 145-190. [18] P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne and A. V. Vecchia, “Global Pattern of Trends in Streamflow and Water Availability in a Changing Climate,” Nature, Vol. 438, No. 7066, 2005, pp. 347-350. doi:10.1038/nature04312 [19] B. C. Bates, Z. W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J. P. Palutikof, “Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat,” Geneva, 2008. [20] E. Ansink and A. Ruijs, “Climate Change and the Stabil- ity of Water Allocation Agreements,” Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 41, 2008, pp. 133-287. doi:10.1007/s10640-008-9190-3 [21] B. Gumbo and P. van der Zaag, “Water Losses and the Political Constraints to Demand Management: The Case of the City of Mutare, Zimbabwe,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 27, No. 11-22, 2002, pp. 805-813. doi:10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00069-4 [22] United Nations, “Indicators of Sustainable Development: Guidelines and Methodologies,” 3rd Edition, United Nations, New York, 2007.