ACS  Vol.2 No.2 , April 2012
Hydrometeorological Modeling Study of Tropical Cyclone Phet in the Arabian Sea in 2010
ABSTRACT
Tropical cyclone Phet is the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet made landfall in the northeast mountainous area of Oman in early morning on 4 June in 2010, causing a breaking record rainfall in this arid region of 488 mm/48 h. The cyclone heavy rainfall triggered flash floods causing enormous losses in lives and infrastructure in northeast Oman. The state of the art Advanced Research WRF model is used to study the atmospheric circulation and to reproduce the heavy rainfall over Oman. Three one-way nested domains with 32 vertical layers with terrain following sigma coordinate are used to setup eight numerical experiments aiming to investigate the effect of initialization time, horizontal grid resolution and terrain elevations on reproducing the cyclone track, intensity and heavy rainfall. Simulation results show negligible effect of model initialization time on cyclone track, intensity and rainfall. In contrast, the orographic effect played a substantial role in rainfall simulation over northeast Oman. The heavy rainfall was a combination of the cyclone circulation effect and the orographic lifting in the mountains. The northeasterly cyclone moist-warm wind was lifted in the Omani mountains releasing its potential energy and enhancing further thermal convection. The numerical experiment with the highest terrain elevation (RUN3.3-C) resulted in overestimation of observed rainfall due to the enhanced topographic lifting of the saturated cyclone wind. Experiment with similar horizontal grid resolution but smoother terrain elevation (RUN3.3-TER) resulted in much less rainfall amount comparable to the observed values. The increased precipitation in RUN3.3-C is due to the increase in the rain- water and cloud water and graupel of the explicit moisture scheme.

Cite this paper
M. Haggag and H. Badry, "Hydrometeorological Modeling Study of Tropical Cyclone Phet in the Arabian Sea in 2010," Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Vol. 2 No. 2, 2012, pp. 174-190. doi: 10.4236/acs.2012.22018.
References
[1]   A. Henderson-Sellers, H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, et al., “Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change, a Post-IPCC Assessment,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 79, No. 1, 1998, pp. 19-38. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0019:TCAGCC>2.0.CO;2

[2]   A. T. Evan and S. J. Camargo, “A Climatology of Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storms,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2011, pp. 140-158. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1

[3]   S. Pattanayakand and U. C. Mohanty, “A Comparative Study on Performance of MM5 and WRF Models in Simulation of Tropical Cyclones over Indian Seas,” CURRENT SCIENCE, Vol. 95, No. 7, 2008, pp. 923-936.

[4]   D. Knight and R. E. Davis, “Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Southeastern United States,” Physical Geography, Vol. 28, No. 2, 2007, pp. 126-147. doi:10.2747/0272-3646.28.2.126

[5]   M. Deshpande, S. Pattnaik and P. S. Salvekar, “Impact of Physical Parameterization Schemes on Numerical Simulation of Super Cyclone Gonu,” Natural Hazards, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2010, pp. 211-231. doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9521-x

[6]   J. Yu and Y. Wang, “Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity over the North Indian Ocean to Global Warm- ing,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, No. L03709, 2009, p. 5. doi:10.1029/2008GL036742

[7]   E. B. Rodgers, R. F. Adler and H. F. Pierce, “Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 40, No. 11, 2001, pp. 1785-1800. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1785:COTCTT>2.0.CO;2

[8]   J. B. Elsner, J. P. Kossin and T. H. Jagger, “The Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Tropical Cyclones,” Nature, Vol. 455, No. 7209, 2008, pp. 92-95. doi:10.1038/nature07234.

[9]   W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, et al., “A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note,” National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 2008.

[10]   V. B. Rao, C. C. Ferreira, S. H. Franchito and S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna, “In a Changing Climate Weakening Tropical Easterly Jet Induces More Violent Tropical Storms over the north Indian Ocean,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, No. L15710, 2008, p. 4. doi:10.1029/2008GL034729

[11]   G. Grell, J. Dudhia and D. Stauffer, “A Description of the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM- 5),” NCAR Library, Boulder, 1996, p. 117.

[12]   S. R. Rao, K. M. Krishna and O. S. R. U. Bhanu Kumar, “Study of tropical cyclone Fanoos using MM5 model—A Case Study,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2009, pp. 43-51.

[13]   J. S. Kain, “The Kain—Fritsch Convective Parameterization: An Update,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 43, No. 1, 2004, pp. 107-181. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2

[14]   A. K. Betts and M. J. Miller, “The Betts-Miller scheme..” In: K. A. Emanuel and D. J. Raymond, Eds., Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 1993, p. 246.

[15]   G. A. Grell, “Prognostic Evaluation of Assumptions Used by Cumulus Parameterizations,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 121, No. 3, 1993, pp. 764-787. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0764:PEOAUB>2.0.CO;2

[16]   D. K. Lee and S. J. Choi, “Observation and Numerical Prediction of Torrential Rainfall over Korea Caused by Typhoon Rusa (2002),” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, No. D12105, 2010, p. 20. doi:10.1029/2009JD012581

[17]   M. Haggag and T. Yamashita, “Environmental Simulator Application to the Analysis of the Tropical Cyclone Gonu in 2007,”Journal of International Development and Cooperation, Vol. 15, No. 1-2, 2009, pp. 47-63.

[18]   M. Haggag, T. Yamashita, K. O. Kim and H. S. Lee, “Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Simulation of Storm Surge and High Waves Caused by Cyclone Nargis in 2008,” Asian and Pacific Coasts, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2009, pp. 208-215.

[19]   IMD, “India Meteorology Department Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2010, RSMC-Tropical Cyclones,” IMD, New Delhi, 2011, pp. 61-75.

[20]   NASA, “Hurricane Season 2010, Tropical Storm Phet (Northern Indian Ocean),” 2011. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2010/h2010_phet.html

[21]   R. A. Anthes, “Tropical Cyclones: Their Evolution, Structure and Effects,” American Meteorological Society, Boston, 1982.

[22]   S. Y. Hong, J. Dudhia and S. H. Chen, “A Revised Approach to Ice Microphysical Processer for the Bulk Parameterization of Clouds and Precipitation,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 132, No. 1, 2004, pp. 103-120.

[23]   S. Y. Hong and J. O. Lim, “The WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6),” Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2006, pp. 129-151.

[24]   S. Y. Hong, Y. Noh and J. Dudhia, “A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, No. 9, 2006, pp. 2318-2341. doi:10.1175/MWR3199.1

[25]   F. Chen and J. Dudhia, “Coupling of an Advanced Land Surface Hydrology with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 Mo- deling System. Part I: Model Implementation and Sensitivity,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 129, No. 4, 2001, pp. 569-585. doi:10.1175/1520-0493129

[26]   E. J. Mlawer, S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Lacono and S. A. Clough, “Radiative Transfer for Inhomogeneous Atmospheres: Rrtm, a Validated Correlated-K Model for Thelongwave,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 102, No. 16, 1997, pp. 663-682. doi:10.1029/97JD00237

[27]   J. Dudhia, “Numerical Study of Convection Observed During the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 46, No. 20, 1989, pp. 3077-3107. doi:10.1175/1520-0469

[28]   J. Done, C. Davis and M. Weisman, “The Next Generation of NWP: Explicit Forecasts of Convection Using the Wea- ther Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model,” Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 5, No. 6, 2004, pp. 110-117. doi:10.1002/asl.72

[29]   J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, et al., “Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP,” Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 23, No. 5, 2008, pp. 931-952. doi:10.1175/WAF2007106.1

[30]   M. L. Weisman, C. Davis, W. Wang, K. W. Manning and J. B. Klemp, “Experiences with 0-36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model.” Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 23, No. 3, 2008, pp. 407-437. doi:10.1175/2007WAF2007005.1

[31]   J. Thiébaux, E. Rogers, W. Wang and B. Katz, “A New High-Resolution Blended Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature Analysis,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 84, No. 5, 2003, pp. 645-656. doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-5-645

 
 
Top