Joint Probability Prediction Model of Rainfall Triggered Landslides and Debris Flows

ABSTRACT

The rainfall induced landslides and debris flows are the major disasters in China, as well in Europe, South America, Japan and Australia. This paper proposes a new type of joint probability prediction model—Double Layer Nested Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (DLNMCEVD) to predict landslides and debris flows triggered by rainfall. The outer layer of DLNMCEVD is predicting the joint probabilities of different combinations for rainfall characteristics, air temperature and humidity, which should be considered as external load factors with geological and geotechnical characteristics as resistance factors for reliability analysis of slope stability in the inner layer of model. For the reliability and consequence analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure, the Global Uncertainty Analysis and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GUA & GSA) should be taken into account for input-output iterations. Finally, based on the statistics prediction by DLNMCEVD, the geological hazards prevention alarm and regionalization can be provided in this paper.

The rainfall induced landslides and debris flows are the major disasters in China, as well in Europe, South America, Japan and Australia. This paper proposes a new type of joint probability prediction model—Double Layer Nested Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (DLNMCEVD) to predict landslides and debris flows triggered by rainfall. The outer layer of DLNMCEVD is predicting the joint probabilities of different combinations for rainfall characteristics, air temperature and humidity, which should be considered as external load factors with geological and geotechnical characteristics as resistance factors for reliability analysis of slope stability in the inner layer of model. For the reliability and consequence analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure, the Global Uncertainty Analysis and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GUA & GSA) should be taken into account for input-output iterations. Finally, based on the statistics prediction by DLNMCEVD, the geological hazards prevention alarm and regionalization can be provided in this paper.

Cite this paper

G. Liu, D. Liu, T. Li, F. Wang and T. Zou, "Joint Probability Prediction Model of Rainfall Triggered Landslides and Debris Flows,"*Open Journal of Geology*, Vol. 2 No. 2, 2012, pp. 103-110. doi: 10.4236/ojg.2012.22011.

G. Liu, D. Liu, T. Li, F. Wang and T. Zou, "Joint Probability Prediction Model of Rainfall Triggered Landslides and Debris Flows,"

References

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[2] M. Polemio and O. Petrucci, “Rainfall as a Landslide Triggering Factor: An Overview of Recent International Research,” Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice, Vol. 3, 2000, p. 1219.

[3] W.-J. Wu and N.-Q. Wang, “Landslide Hazards in Gansu Province of China,” Lanzhou University Publishing Company, Lanzhou, 2006.

[4] Li Tianfu, et al., “Design Specification for Slope of Hydropower and Water Conservancy Project,” National Development and Reform Commission, 2007.

[5] B.-T. Xie, D.-F. Liu, et al., “Statistical Prediction of Long Term Characteristics for Typhoon Induced Rainstorm and Inundation in China,” Proceedings of 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Estoril, June 15-20 2008, pp. 19-26.

[6] T.-F. Li, et al., “The Failure Mechanism of Rock Slope with Bedding Structure,” Hydropower, Vol. 1, 1996, pp. 46-49.

[7] T.-F. Li, “Treatment Targets and Design Principle for Destabilized Bank Slopes of the Three Gorges Reservoir,” Northwest Water Power, Vol. 3, 2002, pp. 8-11.

[8] T.-F. Li, “On Toppling Failure of Bedded Slope,” Northwest Water Power, Vol. 3, 2006, pp. 4-6.

[9] D.-F. Liu, L. Pang and B.-T. Xie, “Typhoon Disaster in China-Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation,” Natural Hazards, Vol. 49, No. 3, 2009, pp. 421-436. doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2

[10] D.-F. Liu, L. Pang, Y.-K. Wu and B.-T. Xie, “Typhoon Disaster Zoning and Prevention Criteria—A Double Layer Nested Multi-Objective Probability Model and Its Application,” Science in China, Series E, Vol. 51, No. 7, 2008, pp. 1038-1048. doi:10.1007/s11431-008-0053-5

[11] D.-F. Liu, H.-D. Shi and L, Pang, “Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for the Estuarine Cities: New Orleans and Shanghai,” Acta Oceanologica Sinica, Vol. 25, No. 4, 2006, pp. 131-142.

[12] D.-F. Liu and F.-S. Ma, “Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities,” Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Division, Vol. 106, No. 4, 1980, pp. 469-479.

[13] D.-F. Liu, “Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics,” Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, 3-6 May 1982, pp. 305-313.

[14] R. W. Schwerdt, F. P. Ho and R. R. Watking, “Meteorological Criteria for Standard Project Hurricane and Probable Maximum Hurricane Wind Fields, Gulf and East Coast of the United States,” NOAA Technical Report NWS 23, 1979.

[15] Army Corps of Engineers, “History of Lake Pontchartrain and Vincinity Hurricane Protection Project,” Report of US Government Accountability Office GAO-06-244T, 2005, pp. 1-4.

[16] GAO, “Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection Project,” GAO-05-1050T, Washington DC, 2005.

[17] R. Bea, “Reliability Assessment & Management: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina,” ASME 2007 26th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, San Diego, June 10-15 2007, pp. 467-478.

[18] W. H. Kirby and M. E. Moss, “Summary of Flood-Frequency Analysis in the United States,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 96, No. 1-4, 1987, pp. 5-14. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(87)90139-9

[19] A. G. Chowdhury and E. Huang, “Novel Full-Scale WindStructure Interaction Experimentation for mitigating Hurricane-Induced Coastal Disasters,” Far East Journal of Ocean Research, Vol. 2, 2009, pp. 1-27.

[20] R. M. Langley and A. H. El-Shaarawi, “On the Calculation of Extreme Wave Height: A Review,” Ocean Engineering, Vol. 13, No. 1, 1986, pp. 93-118. doi:10.1016/0029-8018(86)90006-5

[21] M. G. Naffa, A. M. Fanos and M. A. Elganainy, “Characteristics of Waves off the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt,” Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1991, pp. 665-676.

[22] S. T. Quek and H. F. Cheong, “Prediction of Extreme 3Sec Gusts Accounting for Seasonal Effects,” Structure Safety, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1992, pp. 121-129. doi:10.1016/0167-4730(92)90004-7

[23] M. K. Ochi, “Stochastic Analysis and Probabilistic Prediction of Random Seas,” Advanced Hydrologic, Vol. 13, 1982, pp. 5-14.

[24] U. Bourgund, W. Ouypornprasert and P. H. W. Prenninger, “Advanced Simulation Methods for the Estimation of Systems Reliability,” Internal Working Report No. 19, Institution of Mechanical Engineers, University of Innsbruck, 1986.

[25] L. Pang, D.-F. Liu and Y.-F. Yu, “Improved Stochastic Simulation Technique and Its Application to the Multivariate Probability Analysis of Typhoon Disaster,” Proceedings of the 17th International Offshore and Polar Engineering, Portugal, 2007, pp. 1800-1805.

[26] D.-F. Liu, L. Pang, G. Fu and H.-D. Shi, “Joint Probability Analysis of Hurricane Katrina 2005,” Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, San Francisco, Vol. 3, 2006, pp. 74-80.

[27] D.-F. Liu, B,-T. Xie and H.-J. Li, “Study on the Flood Volume of the Three Gorges Dam Project,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2011, pp. 71-80. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000287

[28] D.-F. Liu, H.-J. Li, G.-L. Liu and F.-Q. Wang, “Design Code Calibration of Offshore, Coastal and Hydraulic Energy Development Infrastructures, World Science and Engineering Academy Society (WSEAS) International Journal of Energy and Environment, Vol. 5, No. 6, 2011, pp. 733-747.

[29] D.-F. Liu, G.-L. Liu, H.-J. Li and F.-Q. Wang, “Risk Assessment of Coastal Defense against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant in China,” Proceedings of ICAPP 2011, Nice, France, 2-6 May 2011, pp. 2484-2492.

[30] D.-F. Liu, Y.-P. Jiang and H.-D. Shi, “Uncertainty Analysis of Breakwater Wave Overtopping Volume, Wave Forces and Structure Stability,” Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, San Francisco, 28 May-2 June 2006.

[31] S. Tarantola, N. Giglioli, N. J. Jesinghaus and A. Saltelli, “Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Steer the Implementation of Models for Environmental Assessments and Decision-Making?” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2002, pp. 63-76.

[1] R. Fell, O. Hunger, S. Leroueil and W. Riemer, “Keynote Lecture—Geotechnical Engineering of the Stability of Natural Slopes, and Cuts and Fills in Soil,” Invited Lecture, GeoEng 2000.

[2] M. Polemio and O. Petrucci, “Rainfall as a Landslide Triggering Factor: An Overview of Recent International Research,” Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice, Vol. 3, 2000, p. 1219.

[3] W.-J. Wu and N.-Q. Wang, “Landslide Hazards in Gansu Province of China,” Lanzhou University Publishing Company, Lanzhou, 2006.

[4] Li Tianfu, et al., “Design Specification for Slope of Hydropower and Water Conservancy Project,” National Development and Reform Commission, 2007.

[5] B.-T. Xie, D.-F. Liu, et al., “Statistical Prediction of Long Term Characteristics for Typhoon Induced Rainstorm and Inundation in China,” Proceedings of 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Estoril, June 15-20 2008, pp. 19-26.

[6] T.-F. Li, et al., “The Failure Mechanism of Rock Slope with Bedding Structure,” Hydropower, Vol. 1, 1996, pp. 46-49.

[7] T.-F. Li, “Treatment Targets and Design Principle for Destabilized Bank Slopes of the Three Gorges Reservoir,” Northwest Water Power, Vol. 3, 2002, pp. 8-11.

[8] T.-F. Li, “On Toppling Failure of Bedded Slope,” Northwest Water Power, Vol. 3, 2006, pp. 4-6.

[9] D.-F. Liu, L. Pang and B.-T. Xie, “Typhoon Disaster in China-Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation,” Natural Hazards, Vol. 49, No. 3, 2009, pp. 421-436. doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2

[10] D.-F. Liu, L. Pang, Y.-K. Wu and B.-T. Xie, “Typhoon Disaster Zoning and Prevention Criteria—A Double Layer Nested Multi-Objective Probability Model and Its Application,” Science in China, Series E, Vol. 51, No. 7, 2008, pp. 1038-1048. doi:10.1007/s11431-008-0053-5

[11] D.-F. Liu, H.-D. Shi and L, Pang, “Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for the Estuarine Cities: New Orleans and Shanghai,” Acta Oceanologica Sinica, Vol. 25, No. 4, 2006, pp. 131-142.

[12] D.-F. Liu and F.-S. Ma, “Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities,” Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Division, Vol. 106, No. 4, 1980, pp. 469-479.

[13] D.-F. Liu, “Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics,” Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, 3-6 May 1982, pp. 305-313.

[14] R. W. Schwerdt, F. P. Ho and R. R. Watking, “Meteorological Criteria for Standard Project Hurricane and Probable Maximum Hurricane Wind Fields, Gulf and East Coast of the United States,” NOAA Technical Report NWS 23, 1979.

[15] Army Corps of Engineers, “History of Lake Pontchartrain and Vincinity Hurricane Protection Project,” Report of US Government Accountability Office GAO-06-244T, 2005, pp. 1-4.

[16] GAO, “Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection Project,” GAO-05-1050T, Washington DC, 2005.

[17] R. Bea, “Reliability Assessment & Management: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina,” ASME 2007 26th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, San Diego, June 10-15 2007, pp. 467-478.

[18] W. H. Kirby and M. E. Moss, “Summary of Flood-Frequency Analysis in the United States,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 96, No. 1-4, 1987, pp. 5-14. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(87)90139-9

[19] A. G. Chowdhury and E. Huang, “Novel Full-Scale WindStructure Interaction Experimentation for mitigating Hurricane-Induced Coastal Disasters,” Far East Journal of Ocean Research, Vol. 2, 2009, pp. 1-27.

[20] R. M. Langley and A. H. El-Shaarawi, “On the Calculation of Extreme Wave Height: A Review,” Ocean Engineering, Vol. 13, No. 1, 1986, pp. 93-118. doi:10.1016/0029-8018(86)90006-5

[21] M. G. Naffa, A. M. Fanos and M. A. Elganainy, “Characteristics of Waves off the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt,” Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1991, pp. 665-676.

[22] S. T. Quek and H. F. Cheong, “Prediction of Extreme 3Sec Gusts Accounting for Seasonal Effects,” Structure Safety, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1992, pp. 121-129. doi:10.1016/0167-4730(92)90004-7

[23] M. K. Ochi, “Stochastic Analysis and Probabilistic Prediction of Random Seas,” Advanced Hydrologic, Vol. 13, 1982, pp. 5-14.

[24] U. Bourgund, W. Ouypornprasert and P. H. W. Prenninger, “Advanced Simulation Methods for the Estimation of Systems Reliability,” Internal Working Report No. 19, Institution of Mechanical Engineers, University of Innsbruck, 1986.

[25] L. Pang, D.-F. Liu and Y.-F. Yu, “Improved Stochastic Simulation Technique and Its Application to the Multivariate Probability Analysis of Typhoon Disaster,” Proceedings of the 17th International Offshore and Polar Engineering, Portugal, 2007, pp. 1800-1805.

[26] D.-F. Liu, L. Pang, G. Fu and H.-D. Shi, “Joint Probability Analysis of Hurricane Katrina 2005,” Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, San Francisco, Vol. 3, 2006, pp. 74-80.

[27] D.-F. Liu, B,-T. Xie and H.-J. Li, “Study on the Flood Volume of the Three Gorges Dam Project,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2011, pp. 71-80. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000287

[28] D.-F. Liu, H.-J. Li, G.-L. Liu and F.-Q. Wang, “Design Code Calibration of Offshore, Coastal and Hydraulic Energy Development Infrastructures, World Science and Engineering Academy Society (WSEAS) International Journal of Energy and Environment, Vol. 5, No. 6, 2011, pp. 733-747.

[29] D.-F. Liu, G.-L. Liu, H.-J. Li and F.-Q. Wang, “Risk Assessment of Coastal Defense against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant in China,” Proceedings of ICAPP 2011, Nice, France, 2-6 May 2011, pp. 2484-2492.

[30] D.-F. Liu, Y.-P. Jiang and H.-D. Shi, “Uncertainty Analysis of Breakwater Wave Overtopping Volume, Wave Forces and Structure Stability,” Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, San Francisco, 28 May-2 June 2006.

[31] S. Tarantola, N. Giglioli, N. J. Jesinghaus and A. Saltelli, “Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Steer the Implementation of Models for Environmental Assessments and Decision-Making?” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2002, pp. 63-76.