JWARP  Vol.2 No.5 , May 2010
Risk Assessment of Extreme Events along a River Flow
ABSTRACT
The present work considers the Struma River water flow on Bulgarian territory as a starting point for evalua-tion of maximum and minimum water flow using an original integral method. The risk assessment is deter-mined by specific indices like the index Mmax,i for the deviation of the maximum water flow from the calcu-lated norm of the maximum flow Qmax,0 and the index Mmin,i for the deviation of the minimum water flow from calculated norm of the minimum flow Qmin,0. The new integral approach introducing specific indicators for risk assessment like the indices Mmin,i and Mmax,i has been checked at three sampling locations of the Na-tional monitoring net along the Struma River: Pernik (in the beginning), Krupnik (in the middle) and Marino pole (at the border in Greece) for the period 1948-2006. A significant trend towards decreasing of Mmax,i in-dex is outlined for the three points. On contrary, a significant trend towards increasing of Mmin,i index is found at Krupnik and Marno pole sampling points.

Cite this paper
nullI. Diadovski, M. Atanassova and V. Simeonov, "Risk Assessment of Extreme Events along a River Flow," Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 2 No. 5, 2010, pp. 455-461. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2010.25052.
References
[1]   European Union Commission, “Water Framwork Directive,” Brussels, 2000.

[2]   I. Diadovski, S. Bratanova-Doncheva, Y. Raykovska, N. de Pauw and D. Rousseau, “Integral Assessment of Economic Activity Impact on River Flow Formation,” Journal of Balkan Ecology, Vol. 7, No 2, 2004, pp. 211-216.

[3]   I. Diadovski, M. Petrov, T. Ilkova and I. Ivanov, “A Model for the Mesta River Pollution Assessment Based on the Integral Indices,” Chemical and Biochemical Engineering Quarterly, Zagreb, Vol. 19, No. 3, 2005, pp. 291-296.

[4]   M. Meybeck and G. de E. Fustec, “La Seine et son bassin”, Elsevier, Paris, 1998.

[5]   C. Amoros and G. Tetts, “Hydrosysteme Fluvieux,” Musson, Paris, 1993.

[6]   B. Bilger, “Global Warming: Earth at Risk”, Chelsea House Publishers, New York, 1992.

[7]   R. H. McGuen, “Hydrologic Analysis and Design,” Prentice Hall, New York, 1989.

[8]   M. G. Anderson and T. P. Burst, “Hydrological Forecasting”, John Willey and Sons, Chichester, 1985.

[9]   Y. Tardy, “Le cicle de l’eau, Climates, Paleoclimats et Geochemie Global, ” Masson, Paris, 1986.

[10]   A. Ward and W. Elliot, “Environmental Hydrology”, Levis Publishers, New York, 1998.

[11]   U. Braukmann and I. Pinter, “Concept for Integrated Ecological Evaluation of Running Water,” Acta Hydro- chimia and Hudrobiologia, Vol. 25, No. 30, 1997, pp. 113-127.

[12]   I. Diadovski, M. Atanassova and I. S. Ivanov, “Integral Assessment of Climate Impact on Transbounadry Mesta River Flow Formation in Bulgaria,” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 127, No. 1-3, April 2007, pp. 383-388. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-0069287-5

[13]   Microcal Software Inc., “Origin 6.0 Getting Started Manual,” 7th Edition, Northampton, 2002.

[14]   I. Diadovski, M. Atanassova and V. Simeonov, “Guide for Application to the Programme for Statistical Analysis from Monitoring Data, Modeling and Water Quality Assessment on the Strouma River,” PublishScieSet-Eco, Sofia, 2008.

[15]   L. Sachs, “Angewandte Statistik: Anwendung Statistischer Methoden,” Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1971.

[16]   V. Simeonov, “Principles of Data Treatment of Analytical Results,” Sofia University Press, Sofia, 1997.

[17]   P. Simeonova, V. Simeonov and G. Andreev, “Water Quality Study of the Struma River Basin, Bulgaria,” Central European Journal of Chemistry, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2003, pp. 121-136.

[18]   V. Sing, “Environmental Hydrology,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1995.

[19]   R. Stegmann, et al., “Anwendung einer Zeitreihenanalyse in der Wassergütewirtschaft, ” Wasser und Boden, Vol. 3, 1978, pp. 50-54.

[20]   R. W. Heschy and R. Fairbridge, “Encyclopedia of Hydrology and Water Researches,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1998.

[21]   I. Diadovski, M. Petrov, L. Brankova and E. Bournaski, “Integral Pollution Assessment of the Mesta River in Bulgaria,” Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2004, pp. 487-494.

[22]   A. Astel, S. Tsakovski, P. Barbieri and V. Simeonov, “Comparision of Self-Organizing Maps Classification Approach with Cluster and Principal Components Analysis for Large Environmental Date Sets,” Water Research, Vol. 41, No. 19, 2007, pp. 4566-4578.

 
 
Top