Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Seismogenic Area: A Bayesian Melding Approach

Affiliation(s)

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Advanced Digital and Embedded System Lab, Electronics and Tele-Communication Department, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India; Electronics and Tele-Communication Department, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India.

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Advanced Digital and Embedded System Lab, Electronics and Tele-Communication Department, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India; Electronics and Tele-Communication Department, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India.

ABSTRACT

Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock.

Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock.

KEYWORDS

Radon; Deterministic Model; Probability Distribution; Strain, Bayesian Melding; Seismogenic Layer; Earthquake Prediction

Radon; Deterministic Model; Probability Distribution; Strain, Bayesian Melding; Seismogenic Layer; Earthquake Prediction

Cite this paper

P. Dutta, M. Naskar and O. Mishra, "Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Seismogenic Area: A Bayesian Melding Approach,"*International Journal of Geosciences*, Vol. 3 No. 1, 2012, pp. 126-132. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2012.31015.

P. Dutta, M. Naskar and O. Mishra, "Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Seismogenic Area: A Bayesian Melding Approach,"

References

[1] H. Wakita, “Geochemical Challenge to Earthquake Prediction,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 93, No. 9, 1996, pp. 3781-3786.

[2] V. Walia, “Earthquake Prediction Studies Using Radon as a Precursor in N-W Himalayas, India: A Case Study,” TAO, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2005, pp. 775-804.

[3] V. I. Ulomov and B. Z. Mavashev , “On Forerunner of a Strong Tectonic Earthquake,” Doklady Akademii nauk SSSR, Vol. 176, 1967, pp. 319-322.

[4] I. Miklavci?, V. Radoli?, B. Vukovi?, M. Poje, M. Varga, D. Stani? and J. Planini?, “Radon Anomaly in Soil Gas as an Earthquake Precursor,” Applied Radiation and Isotopes, Vol. 66, No. 10, 2008, pp. 1459-1466.

[5] T. Teng, “Some Recent Studies on Ground Water Random Content as an Earthquake Precursor,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 85, No. B6, 1980, pp. 3089- 3099. doi:10.1029/JB085iB06p03089

[6] H. H. Shapiro, J. D. Melvin, T. A. Tombrello, H. H. Mendenhall, P. B. Larson and J. H. Whitcomb, “Relationship of the 1979 Southern California Radon Anomaly to a Possible Regional Strain Event,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No. B3, 1981, pp. 1725-1730.

[7] I. P. Dobrovosky, S. A. Zubkov and V. I. Miachkin, “Estimation of the Size of the Earthquake Preparation Zones,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 117, No. 5, 1979, pp. 1025-1044. doi:10.1007/BF00876083

[8] E. Hauksson, “Radon Content of Ground Water as an Earthquake Precursor: Evaluation of the World Wide Data and Physical Basis,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No. B10, 1981, pp. 9397-9410.

[9] C. Scholz, “Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis Science,” Science, Vol. 181, No. 4102, 1973, pp. 803-810. doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.80310

[10] B. T. Brady, “Anomalous Seismicity Prior to Rock Bursts: Implications for Earthquake Prediction,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 115, No. 1-2, 1991, pp. 357-374. doi:10.1007/BF01637114

[11] V. I. Utkin and A. K. Yurkov, “Radon as a Tracer of Tectonic Movements,” Russian Geology and Geophysics, Vol. 51, No. 2, 2010, pp. 220-227. doi:10.1016/j.rgg.2009.12.022

[12] D. Poole and A. E. Raftery, “Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models: The Bayesian Melding Approach,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No. 452, 2000, pp. 1244-1255. doi:10.2307/2669764

[13] R. C. Ramola, Y. Prasad, G. Prasad, S. Kumar and V. M. Choubey, “Soil-Gas Radon as Seismotectonic Indicator in Garhwal Himalaya,” Applied Radiation and Isotopes, Vol. 66, No. 10, 2008, pp. 1523-1530.

[14] V. G. Bakhmutov and A. A. Groza, “Dilatancy Difussion Model: New Prospects,” Proceedings of the 7th International Conference “Problems of Geocosmos”, St. Petersburg, 26-30 May 2008, pp. 3-4.

[15] G. I. Voitov, A. S. Gusev, N. S. Kozlova, V. P. Rudakova and V. N. Shuleikin, “Emanation and Electrical Effects above Complex Tectonic Structures (Aleksandrovskaya Zone of Fault-Line Uplifts, Belorussia),” Doklady Aka- demii Nauk, Vol. 370, No. 1, 2000, pp. 105-108.

[16] P. P. Firstov and V. P. Rudakov, “Results of Recording of Subsurface Radon in 1997-2000 at the Petropavlovsk Kamchatski Geodynamic Research Area,” Vulkanologiya i Seismologiya, Vol. 1, 2003, pp. 26-41.

[17] C.-Y. King and Y. Chi, “Gas-Geochemical Approaches to Earthquake Prediction. Isotopic and Geochemical Precursors of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions,” Proceedings of an Advisory Group Meeting, Vienna, 9-12 September 1991, pp. 9-12.

[18] R. F. Holub and B. T. Brady, “The Effect of Stress on Radon Emanation from Rock,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No.B3, 1981, pp. 1776-1784. doi:10.1029/JB086iB03p01776

[19] K. Katoh, O. Nishizawa, K. Kuronose and K. Ikeda, “An Experimental Study on Variation of Radon Emanation from Westerly Granite under Uniaxial Compression Part 1,” Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan, Vol. 38, 1985, pp. 173-182.

[20] M. Trique, P. Richon, F. Perrier, J. P. Avouac and J. C. Sobroux, “Radon Emanation and Electric Potential Variation Associated with Transient Deformation Near Reservoir Lakes,” Nature, Vol. 399, 1991, pp. 137-141. doi:10.1038/20161

[21] V. I. Utkin, E. Mamyrov, M. V. Kan, S. V. Krivasheev, A. K. Yurkov, I. I. Kosyakin and A. N. Shishkanov, “Radon Monitoring in the Northern Tien Shan with Application to the Process of Tectonic Earthquake Nucleation,” Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth, Vol. 42, No. 9, 2006, pp. 775- 784.

[22] Y. Kawada, H. Nagahama, Y. Omori, Y. Yasuoka, T. Ishikawa, S. Tokonami and M. Shinogi, “Time-Scale Invariant Changes in Atmospheric Radon Concentration and Crustal Strain Prior to a Large Earthquake,” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Vol. 14, 2007, pp. 123-130. doi:10.5194/npg-14-123-2007

[23] M. Snnirman and E. Blanter, “Hierarchial Model of Seismicity,” Non Linear Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Springer, 2008, pp. 40-41.

[24] A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin, “Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences,” Statistical Science, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1992, pp. 457-472. doi:10.1214/ss/1177011136

[25] V. T. Dubinchuk, “Radon as a Precursor of Earthquakes; Isotopic and Geochemical Precursors of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions,” IAEA-TECDOC-726, 1993, p. 7.

[26] Y. Gel, A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting, “Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) Method (with Discussion),” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 99, No. 467, 2004, pp. 575-583. doi:10.1198/016214504000000872

[27] O. P. Mishra, “Lithospheric Heterogeneity and Seismotectonics of NE Japan Forearc and Indian Regions,” unpublished D.Sc. Thesis, Ehime University, Japan, 2004, p. 223.

[28] S. Mukhopadhyay, O. P. Mishra, D. Zhao and J. Kayalal, “2006: 3-D Seismic Structure of the Source Area of the 1993 Latur, India Earthquake and Its Implications for Rupture Nucleations,” Tectonophysics, Vol. 415, pp. 1-16.

[29] P. K. Dutta, M. K. Naskar and O. P. Mishra, “Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Earthquake Prone Zones,” Himalayan Geology, Vol. 33, No. 1, 2012, pp. 23-28.

[1] H. Wakita, “Geochemical Challenge to Earthquake Prediction,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 93, No. 9, 1996, pp. 3781-3786.

[2] V. Walia, “Earthquake Prediction Studies Using Radon as a Precursor in N-W Himalayas, India: A Case Study,” TAO, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2005, pp. 775-804.

[3] V. I. Ulomov and B. Z. Mavashev , “On Forerunner of a Strong Tectonic Earthquake,” Doklady Akademii nauk SSSR, Vol. 176, 1967, pp. 319-322.

[4] I. Miklavci?, V. Radoli?, B. Vukovi?, M. Poje, M. Varga, D. Stani? and J. Planini?, “Radon Anomaly in Soil Gas as an Earthquake Precursor,” Applied Radiation and Isotopes, Vol. 66, No. 10, 2008, pp. 1459-1466.

[5] T. Teng, “Some Recent Studies on Ground Water Random Content as an Earthquake Precursor,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 85, No. B6, 1980, pp. 3089- 3099. doi:10.1029/JB085iB06p03089

[6] H. H. Shapiro, J. D. Melvin, T. A. Tombrello, H. H. Mendenhall, P. B. Larson and J. H. Whitcomb, “Relationship of the 1979 Southern California Radon Anomaly to a Possible Regional Strain Event,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No. B3, 1981, pp. 1725-1730.

[7] I. P. Dobrovosky, S. A. Zubkov and V. I. Miachkin, “Estimation of the Size of the Earthquake Preparation Zones,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 117, No. 5, 1979, pp. 1025-1044. doi:10.1007/BF00876083

[8] E. Hauksson, “Radon Content of Ground Water as an Earthquake Precursor: Evaluation of the World Wide Data and Physical Basis,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No. B10, 1981, pp. 9397-9410.

[9] C. Scholz, “Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis Science,” Science, Vol. 181, No. 4102, 1973, pp. 803-810. doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.80310

[10] B. T. Brady, “Anomalous Seismicity Prior to Rock Bursts: Implications for Earthquake Prediction,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 115, No. 1-2, 1991, pp. 357-374. doi:10.1007/BF01637114

[11] V. I. Utkin and A. K. Yurkov, “Radon as a Tracer of Tectonic Movements,” Russian Geology and Geophysics, Vol. 51, No. 2, 2010, pp. 220-227. doi:10.1016/j.rgg.2009.12.022

[12] D. Poole and A. E. Raftery, “Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models: The Bayesian Melding Approach,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No. 452, 2000, pp. 1244-1255. doi:10.2307/2669764

[13] R. C. Ramola, Y. Prasad, G. Prasad, S. Kumar and V. M. Choubey, “Soil-Gas Radon as Seismotectonic Indicator in Garhwal Himalaya,” Applied Radiation and Isotopes, Vol. 66, No. 10, 2008, pp. 1523-1530.

[14] V. G. Bakhmutov and A. A. Groza, “Dilatancy Difussion Model: New Prospects,” Proceedings of the 7th International Conference “Problems of Geocosmos”, St. Petersburg, 26-30 May 2008, pp. 3-4.

[15] G. I. Voitov, A. S. Gusev, N. S. Kozlova, V. P. Rudakova and V. N. Shuleikin, “Emanation and Electrical Effects above Complex Tectonic Structures (Aleksandrovskaya Zone of Fault-Line Uplifts, Belorussia),” Doklady Aka- demii Nauk, Vol. 370, No. 1, 2000, pp. 105-108.

[16] P. P. Firstov and V. P. Rudakov, “Results of Recording of Subsurface Radon in 1997-2000 at the Petropavlovsk Kamchatski Geodynamic Research Area,” Vulkanologiya i Seismologiya, Vol. 1, 2003, pp. 26-41.

[17] C.-Y. King and Y. Chi, “Gas-Geochemical Approaches to Earthquake Prediction. Isotopic and Geochemical Precursors of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions,” Proceedings of an Advisory Group Meeting, Vienna, 9-12 September 1991, pp. 9-12.

[18] R. F. Holub and B. T. Brady, “The Effect of Stress on Radon Emanation from Rock,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, No.B3, 1981, pp. 1776-1784. doi:10.1029/JB086iB03p01776

[19] K. Katoh, O. Nishizawa, K. Kuronose and K. Ikeda, “An Experimental Study on Variation of Radon Emanation from Westerly Granite under Uniaxial Compression Part 1,” Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan, Vol. 38, 1985, pp. 173-182.

[20] M. Trique, P. Richon, F. Perrier, J. P. Avouac and J. C. Sobroux, “Radon Emanation and Electric Potential Variation Associated with Transient Deformation Near Reservoir Lakes,” Nature, Vol. 399, 1991, pp. 137-141. doi:10.1038/20161

[21] V. I. Utkin, E. Mamyrov, M. V. Kan, S. V. Krivasheev, A. K. Yurkov, I. I. Kosyakin and A. N. Shishkanov, “Radon Monitoring in the Northern Tien Shan with Application to the Process of Tectonic Earthquake Nucleation,” Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth, Vol. 42, No. 9, 2006, pp. 775- 784.

[22] Y. Kawada, H. Nagahama, Y. Omori, Y. Yasuoka, T. Ishikawa, S. Tokonami and M. Shinogi, “Time-Scale Invariant Changes in Atmospheric Radon Concentration and Crustal Strain Prior to a Large Earthquake,” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Vol. 14, 2007, pp. 123-130. doi:10.5194/npg-14-123-2007

[23] M. Snnirman and E. Blanter, “Hierarchial Model of Seismicity,” Non Linear Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Springer, 2008, pp. 40-41.

[24] A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin, “Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences,” Statistical Science, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1992, pp. 457-472. doi:10.1214/ss/1177011136

[25] V. T. Dubinchuk, “Radon as a Precursor of Earthquakes; Isotopic and Geochemical Precursors of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions,” IAEA-TECDOC-726, 1993, p. 7.

[26] Y. Gel, A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting, “Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) Method (with Discussion),” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 99, No. 467, 2004, pp. 575-583. doi:10.1198/016214504000000872

[27] O. P. Mishra, “Lithospheric Heterogeneity and Seismotectonics of NE Japan Forearc and Indian Regions,” unpublished D.Sc. Thesis, Ehime University, Japan, 2004, p. 223.

[28] S. Mukhopadhyay, O. P. Mishra, D. Zhao and J. Kayalal, “2006: 3-D Seismic Structure of the Source Area of the 1993 Latur, India Earthquake and Its Implications for Rupture Nucleations,” Tectonophysics, Vol. 415, pp. 1-16.

[29] P. K. Dutta, M. K. Naskar and O. P. Mishra, “Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Earthquake Prone Zones,” Himalayan Geology, Vol. 33, No. 1, 2012, pp. 23-28.