Resilience, reliability and risk analyses of maize, sorghum and sunflower in rain-fed systems using a soil moisture modeling approach
Author(s)
Berhanu F. Alemaw*
Affiliation(s)
Water Research Group, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
Water Research Group, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
ABSTRACT
This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.
This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.
Cite this paper
Alemaw, B. (2012) Resilience, reliability and risk analyses of maize, sorghum and sunflower in rain-fed systems using a soil moisture modeling approach. Agricultural Sciences, 3, 114-123. doi: 10.4236/as.2012.31015.
Alemaw, B. (2012) Resilience, reliability and risk analyses of maize, sorghum and sunflower in rain-fed systems using a soil moisture modeling approach. Agricultural Sciences, 3, 114-123. doi: 10.4236/as.2012.31015.
References
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(2003) A continental scale water balance model: A GIS-approach for Southern Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28, 957-966. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2003.08.040 [6] Wagner, W., Lemoine, G. and Rott, H. (1999) A method for estimating soil moisture from ers scatterometer and soil data. Remote Sensing of the Environment, 70, 191-207. doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(99)00036-X [7] Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S. and Williams, J.R. (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part I: model development. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 34, 73-89. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x [8] Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S., Allen, P.M. and Walker, C. (1999) Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 35, 1037-1052. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04192.x [9] Harmel, R.D., Richardson, C.W. and King, K.W. (2000) Hydrologic response of a small watershed model to generated precipitation. 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[15] FAO (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Publications No 56, Rome. [16] FAO (1992) CROPWAT—A computer program for irrigation planning and management. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Publications No 46, Rome. [17] Jones, J.W., Hoogenboom, G., Porter, C.H., Boote, K.J., Batchelor, W.D., Hunt, L.A., Wilkens, P.W., Singh, U., Gijsman, A.J. and Ritchie, J.T. (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 235-265. doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7 [18] Hlavinka, P., Trnka, M., Balek, J., Semerádová, D., Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Eitzinger, J., Mozny, M., Fischer, M., Hunt, E. and Zǎlud, Z. (2011) Development and evaluation of the SoilClim model for water balance and soil climate estimates. Agricultural Water Management, 98, 1249-1261. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2011.03.011 [19] Nishat, S., Guo, Y. and Baetz, B.W. (2007) Development of a simplified continuous simulation model for investigating long-term soil moisture fluctuations. Agricultural Water Management, 92, 53-63. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2007.04.012 [20] Alemaw, B.F., Chaoka, T.R. and Totolo, O. (2006) Investigation of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture through soil moisture modeling in the Pandamatenga Plains of Botswana. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 31, 960-966. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2006.08.009 [21] Williams, J.R., Nicks, A.D. and Arnold, J.G. (1985) Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 111, 970-986. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1985)111:6(970) [22] US Soil Conservation Service (1985) “National Engineering Handbook, Section 4: Hydrology”, Soil Conservation Service, USDA, Washington DC. [23] Klaij, M.C. and Vachaud, G. (1992) Seasonal water balance of a sandy soil in Niger cropped with pearl millet, based on profile moisture measurements. Agricultural Water Management, 21, 313-330. doi:10.1016/0378-3774(92)90053-Y [24] Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J.R. and Loucks, D.P. (1982) Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resources Research, 18, 14-20. doi:10.1029/WR018i001p00014 [25] Maier, H.R., Lence, B.J., Tolson, B.A. and Foschi, R.O. (2001) First-order reliability method for estimating reliability, vulnerability, and resilience. Water Resources Research, 37, 779-790. doi:10.1029/2000WR900329 [26] Fowler, H.J., Kilsby C.G., and O’Connell, P.E. (2003) Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system. Water Resources Research, 39, 1222. doi:10.1029/2002WR001778 [27] Moy, W.S., Cohon, J.L., and ReVelle, C.S. (1986) A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resources Research, 22, 489-498. doi:10.1029/WR022i004p00489 [28] Zongxue, X., Jinno, K., Kawamura, A., Takesaki, S. and Ito, K. (1998) Performance risk analysis for Fukuoka water supply system. Water Resources Research, 12, 13-30. [29] Saxton, K.E., Rawls, W.J., Romberger, J.S. and Papendick, (R.I. 1986) Estimating generalized Soil-Water Characteristics from Texture. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 50, 1031-1036. doi:10.2136/sssaj1986.03615995005000040039x [30] Ministry of Agriculture (2000) National Master Plan for Agricultural Development (NAMPAD). Government of Botswana, Tahal Consulting Engineers, Vol. 1, Main Report. [31] Alemaw, B.F., Chaoka, T.R. and Totolo, O. (2006) Soil moisture modeling and application in agricultural water management in a semi-arid environment. In: Totolo, O. Eds., Environmentally sound technology in water resources management, IASTED 2006 Proceedings, Gaborone, Botswana, 120-125.
[1] UNDP/UNSO (1997) Aridity zones and dryland populations: An assessment of population levels in the world’s drylands with particular reference to Africa. UNDP Office to Combat Desertification and Drought (UNSO), New York. [2] Siegert, K. (1994) Introduction to water harvesting: Some basic principles for planning, design, and monitoring. Water Harvesting for Improved Agricultural Production. Proceedings of the FAO Expert Consultation, Cairo, Egypt, 21-25 November1993, FAO, Rome, 9-23. [3] Agromisa, (1997) Water harvesting and soil moisture retention. Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (ACP-EU), Agrodok-series No. 13, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 91. [4] Boone, A. and Wetzel, P.J. (1996) Issues related to low resolution modeling of soil moisture: Experience with the PLACE model. Global and Planetary Change, 13, 161- 181. doi:10.1016/0921-8181(95)00044-5 [5] Alemaw, B.F. and Chaoka, T.R. (2003) A continental scale water balance model: A GIS-approach for Southern Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28, 957-966. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2003.08.040 [6] Wagner, W., Lemoine, G. and Rott, H. (1999) A method for estimating soil moisture from ers scatterometer and soil data. Remote Sensing of the Environment, 70, 191-207. doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(99)00036-X [7] Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S. and Williams, J.R. (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part I: model development. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 34, 73-89. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x [8] Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S., Allen, P.M. and Walker, C. (1999) Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance. Journal of American Water Resources Association, 35, 1037-1052. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04192.x [9] Harmel, R.D., Richardson, C.W. and King, K.W. (2000) Hydrologic response of a small watershed model to generated precipitation. Transactions of American Society of Agricultural Engineering, 43, 1483-1488. [10] Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G, Kiniry, J.R., Srinivasan, R. and Williams, J.R. (2002) Soil and water assessment tool, user’s manual, version 2000. TWRI Report TR-192, Texas Water Resources Institute, College Station, Texas. [11] Doorenbos, J. and Kassam, A.H. (1979) Yield Response to Water. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 33. Rome, Italy. [12] Hsiao, T.C. (1973) Plant responses to water stress. Annual Review of Plant Physiology, 24, 519-570. doi:10.1146/annurev.pp.24.060173.002511 [13] Gardner, B.R., Blad, B.L., Gassity, D.P. and Watts, D.G. (1981) Relationship between crop temperature, grain yield, evapotranspiration and phenological development in two hybrids of moisture stressed sorghum. Irrigation Science, 2, 213-224. doi:10.1007/BF00258375 [14] Doorenbos, J. and Pruitt, W.O. (1979) Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 24, Rome, Italy. [15] FAO (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Publications No 56, Rome. [16] FAO (1992) CROPWAT—A computer program for irrigation planning and management. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Publications No 46, Rome. [17] Jones, J.W., Hoogenboom, G., Porter, C.H., Boote, K.J., Batchelor, W.D., Hunt, L.A., Wilkens, P.W., Singh, U., Gijsman, A.J. and Ritchie, J.T. (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 235-265. doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7 [18] Hlavinka, P., Trnka, M., Balek, J., Semerádová, D., Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Eitzinger, J., Mozny, M., Fischer, M., Hunt, E. and Zǎlud, Z. (2011) Development and evaluation of the SoilClim model for water balance and soil climate estimates. Agricultural Water Management, 98, 1249-1261. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2011.03.011 [19] Nishat, S., Guo, Y. and Baetz, B.W. (2007) Development of a simplified continuous simulation model for investigating long-term soil moisture fluctuations. Agricultural Water Management, 92, 53-63. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2007.04.012 [20] Alemaw, B.F., Chaoka, T.R. and Totolo, O. (2006) Investigation of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture through soil moisture modeling in the Pandamatenga Plains of Botswana. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 31, 960-966. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2006.08.009 [21] Williams, J.R., Nicks, A.D. and Arnold, J.G. (1985) Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 111, 970-986. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1985)111:6(970) [22] US Soil Conservation Service (1985) “National Engineering Handbook, Section 4: Hydrology”, Soil Conservation Service, USDA, Washington DC. [23] Klaij, M.C. and Vachaud, G. (1992) Seasonal water balance of a sandy soil in Niger cropped with pearl millet, based on profile moisture measurements. Agricultural Water Management, 21, 313-330. doi:10.1016/0378-3774(92)90053-Y [24] Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J.R. and Loucks, D.P. (1982) Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resources Research, 18, 14-20. doi:10.1029/WR018i001p00014 [25] Maier, H.R., Lence, B.J., Tolson, B.A. and Foschi, R.O. (2001) First-order reliability method for estimating reliability, vulnerability, and resilience. Water Resources Research, 37, 779-790. doi:10.1029/2000WR900329 [26] Fowler, H.J., Kilsby C.G., and O’Connell, P.E. (2003) Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system. Water Resources Research, 39, 1222. doi:10.1029/2002WR001778 [27] Moy, W.S., Cohon, J.L., and ReVelle, C.S. (1986) A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resources Research, 22, 489-498. doi:10.1029/WR022i004p00489 [28] Zongxue, X., Jinno, K., Kawamura, A., Takesaki, S. and Ito, K. (1998) Performance risk analysis for Fukuoka water supply system. Water Resources Research, 12, 13-30. [29] Saxton, K.E., Rawls, W.J., Romberger, J.S. and Papendick, (R.I. 1986) Estimating generalized Soil-Water Characteristics from Texture. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 50, 1031-1036. doi:10.2136/sssaj1986.03615995005000040039x [30] Ministry of Agriculture (2000) National Master Plan for Agricultural Development (NAMPAD). Government of Botswana, Tahal Consulting Engineers, Vol. 1, Main Report. [31] Alemaw, B.F., Chaoka, T.R. and Totolo, O. (2006) Soil moisture modeling and application in agricultural water management in a semi-arid environment. In: Totolo, O. Eds., Environmentally sound technology in water resources management, IASTED 2006 Proceedings, Gaborone, Botswana, 120-125.