Assessing the Influence of Global Climate and Anthropogenic Activities on the Water Balance of an Andean Lake
ABSTRACT
Tropical regions along the Andean Cordillera face an uncertain future as mountain lakes and snow peaks exhibit receding trends associated with factors such as climatic precursors and local anthropogenic activities. Tota, the largest mountain lake in the Colombian Andes, exemplifies the role played by these factors on the lake's hydrologic evolution. A monthly water balance in Tota Lake was performed using available hydrological information from 1958 to 2007 to address interannual and multiannual level fluctuations associated with human activities and climatic precursors. The balance shows that net water uses fluctuated around 2 m3/s during this period with a pattern that, although constrained during years of severe decline in lake levels, is able to explain most of the multiannual decaying trend of 1.5 cm/year in the last 50 years. The lake’s naturalized levels were used to determine the influence of climate precursors on the lake evolution. Using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA), significant five-year ENSO and 20-year PDO related quasi-oscillations were detected, explaining 54% of the variance associated with mean annual naturalized level fluctuations. ENSO is markedly in-phase with lake levels, with critical declines associated with low precipitation and high evaporation rates during El Niño years, whereas the PDO signal exhibits a phase opposition with lake levels, with low naturalized levels during a positive PDO phase and high levels during a negative PDO phase (an important result to consider given the current cooling trend of the PDO signal).
Tropical regions along the Andean Cordillera face an uncertain future as mountain lakes and snow peaks exhibit receding trends associated with factors such as climatic precursors and local anthropogenic activities. Tota, the largest mountain lake in the Colombian Andes, exemplifies the role played by these factors on the lake's hydrologic evolution. A monthly water balance in Tota Lake was performed using available hydrological information from 1958 to 2007 to address interannual and multiannual level fluctuations associated with human activities and climatic precursors. The balance shows that net water uses fluctuated around 2 m3/s during this period with a pattern that, although constrained during years of severe decline in lake levels, is able to explain most of the multiannual decaying trend of 1.5 cm/year in the last 50 years. The lake’s naturalized levels were used to determine the influence of climate precursors on the lake evolution. Using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA), significant five-year ENSO and 20-year PDO related quasi-oscillations were detected, explaining 54% of the variance associated with mean annual naturalized level fluctuations. ENSO is markedly in-phase with lake levels, with critical declines associated with low precipitation and high evaporation rates during El Niño years, whereas the PDO signal exhibits a phase opposition with lake levels, with low naturalized levels during a positive PDO phase and high levels during a negative PDO phase (an important result to consider given the current cooling trend of the PDO signal).
Cite this paper
nullJ. Cañón and J. Valdes, "Assessing the Influence of Global Climate and Anthropogenic Activities on the Water Balance of an Andean Lake," Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 3 No. 12, 2011, pp. 883-891. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2011.312098.
nullJ. Cañón and J. Valdes, "Assessing the Influence of Global Climate and Anthropogenic Activities on the Water Balance of an Andean Lake," Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 3 No. 12, 2011, pp. 883-891. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2011.312098.
References
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[1] G. Casassa, W. Haeberlib, G. Jones, G. Kaser, P. Ribstein, A. Rivera and C. Schneider, “Current Status of Andean Glaciers,” Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 59, No. 1- 4, 2007, pp. 1-9. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.013 [2] M. Vuille, B. Francou, P. Wagnon, I. Juen, G. Kaser, B. Mark and R. Bradley, “Climate Change and Tropical An- dean Glaciers: Past, Present And Future,” Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 89, No. 3-4, 2008, pp. 79-96. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.04.002 [3] Hidroestudios, “Tota Lake Watershed Management and Conservation Assessment,” Consultant Final Report, Re- gional Autonomous Corporation CAR, FONADE, Bogotá, 1978. [4] IGAC, “Estudio General de Suelos de Los Municipios de Aquitania, Cuítiva, Firavitoba, Iza, Monguí, Nobsa, Soga- moso, Tibasosa, Tópaga y Tota,” Institutional Report, De- partamento de Boyacá, Bogotá, 1980. [5] P. Laserna, “Implementing Tota GIS Management Soft- ware,” Master’s Thesis, Universidad de Los Andes, Bo- gotá, 1996. [6] J. Ca?ón, “Tota Lake Water Balance and Preliminary Study of Lake’s Hydraulics,” Master’s Thesis, School of Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2002. [7] NOAA, “Climate Diagnostic Center: Climate Indices,” 2005. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ClimateIndices [8] N. Mantua, “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Updated Standardized Values for the PDO Index,” 2005. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest [9] L. Xiong and G. Shenglian, “Two Parameter Monthly Wa- ter Balace Model and Its Application,” Journal of Hydro- logy, Vol. 216, No. 1-2, 1998, pp. 111-123. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00297-2 [10] I. Vergara, J. Buitrago and C. Rodríguez, “Tota Lake Hydro- geology Survey,” Third Colombian Symposium of Hydro- geology, Cartagena, 1998, pp. 1-17. [11] G. Poveda, J. Velez, O. Mesa, C. Hoyos, J. Mejia, O. Barco and P. Correa, “Influence of Macroclimatic Pheno- menon on the Annual Hydrologic Cycle of Colombia: Linear, Non-Linear and Percentage Probability,” Meteorología Colombiana, Vol. 6, 2002, pp. 121-130. [12] T. Shun and C. Duffy, “Low-Frequency Oscillations in Precipitation, Temperature and Runoff on a West Facing Mountain Front: A Hydrogeologic Interpretation,” Water Resources Research, Vol. 35, No.1, 1999, pp. 191-201. doi:10.1029/98WR02818 [13] J. Ca?ón, J. González and J. Valdés, “Precipitation in the Colorado River Basin and Its Low Frequency Associa- tions with PDO and ENSO Signals,” Journal of Hydrol- ogy, Vol. 333, No. 2-4, 2007, pp. 252-264. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.015 [14] G. Plaut and R. Vautard, “Spells of Low Frequency Os- cillations and Weather Regimes in the Northern Hemi- sphere,” Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 51, No.2, 1994, pp. 210-236. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0210:SOLFOA>2.0.CO;2 [15] R. Vautard, P. Yiou and M. Ghil, “Singular Spectrum Analysis: A Toolkit for Short, Noisy Chaotic Signals,” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol. 58, No. 1, 1992, pp. 95-95. doi:10.1016/0167-2789(92)90103-T