JWARP  Vol.14 No.8 , August 2022
Non-Stationary Trend Change Point Pattern Using 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series (AMS) Precipitation Data
Abstract: This paper mainly investigated the basic information about non-stationary trend change point patterns. After performing the investigation, the corresponding results show the existence of a trend, its magnitude, and change points in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) extracted from monthly maximum series (MMS) data for thirty years (1986-2015) rainfall data for Uyo metropolis. Trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) used to obtain the trend magnitude, while the trend change point analysis was conducted using the distribution-free cumulative sum test (CUSUM) and the sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQMK). A free CUSUM plot date of change point of rainfall trend as 2002 at 90% confidence interval was obtained from where the increasing trend started and became more pronounced in the year 2011, another change point year from the SQMK plot with the trend intensifying. The SSE gave an average rate of change in rainfall as 2.1288 and 2.16 mm/year for AMS and MMS time series data respectively. Invariably, the condition for Non-stationary concept application is met for intensity-duration-frequency modeling.
Cite this paper: Sam, M. , Nwaogazie, I. and Ikebude, C. (2022) Non-Stationary Trend Change Point Pattern Using 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series (AMS) Precipitation Data. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 14, 592-609. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2022.148031.

[1]   Rahman, M.D. and Begum, M. (2013) Application of Non-Parametric Test for Trend Detection of Rainfall in the Largest Island of Bangladesh. ARPN Journal of Earth Sciences, 2, 40-44.

[2]   Turkes, M. (1996) Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Variation in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1657-1676.<1057::AID-JOC75>3.0.CO;2-D

[3]   Savelieva, N.I., Semiletov, I.P., Vasilevskaya, L.N. and Pugach, S.P. (2000) A Climate Shift in Seasonal Values of Meteorological and Hydrological Parameters for Northeastern Asia. Progress in Oceanography, 47, 279-297.

[4]   Frich, P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein-Tank, M.G. and Peterson, T. (2002) Observed Coherent Changes in Climate Extremes during Second Half of Twentieth Century. Climate Research, 19, 193-212.

[5]   Zhai, P. and Pan, X. (2003) Trends in Temperature Extremes during 1951-1999 in China. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1913.

[6]   Hu, Z.Z., Yang, S. and Wu, R. (2003) Long-Term Climate Variations in China and Global Warming Signals. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 4614.

[7]   Farooq, A.B. and Khan, A.H. (2004) Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan. Proceedings of the Capacity Building APN Workshop on Global Change Research, Islamabad, 39-46.

[8]   Ayensu, A. (2004) Assessment of Climate Change and Vulnerability Trends in Temperature and Rainfall. Journal of Applied Science and Technology (JAST), 9, 21-27.

[9]   Tuller, S.E. (2004) Measured Wind Speed Trends on the West Coast of Canada. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1359-1374.

[10]   Cislaghi, M.D., Michele, T.C., Ghezz, A. and Ross, M.R. (2005) Statistical Assessment of Trends and Oscillations in Rainfall Dynamics: Analysis of Long Daily Italian Series. Atmospheric Research, 77, 188-202.

[11]   Ratnayake, U. and Herath, S. (2005) Changing Rainfall and Its Impacts on Landslides in Sri Lanka. Journal of Mountain Science, 2, 218-224.

[12]   Goswani, B.N., Venugopal, V., Sengupa, D., Madhusoodanan, M.S. and Xavier, P.K. (2006) Increasing Trends of Extreme Rain Events over India in a Warming Environment. Science, 314, 1442-1445.

[13]   Batisani, N. and Yarnal, B. (2008) Rainfall Variability and Trends in Semi-Arid Bostwana: Implication for Climate Change Adaptation Policy. Applied Geography, 30, 483-489.

[14]   Bocheva, L., Marinova, T., Simeonov, P. and Gospodina, V.I. (2009) Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events over Bulgaria (1961-2000). Atmospheric Research, 93, 490-497.

[15]   Omotosho, J.B. (2002) Synoptic Meteorology: Pathway to Seasonal Rainfall Prediction for Sustainable Agriculture and Effective Water Resource Management in West-Africa but Nigeria in Particular. Journal of the Nigerian Meteorological Society, 3, 82-88.

[16]   Ewona, I.O. and Udo, S.O. (2008) Trend Studies of Some Meteorological Parameters in Calabar, Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Physics, 20, 283-289.

[17]   Ati, O.F., Muhammed, S.Q. and Ati, M.H. (2008) Variations and Trends in Annual Rainfall Amounts and the Onset of the Rainy Season for Kano for 87 Years (1916-2006). Journal of Applied Sciences Research, 4, 1959-1962.

[18]   Ojonigu, F., Edwin, I.O. and Seidu, O.M. (2009) Temporal Variation of Annual Rainfall Season in Kastina State of Nigeria. International Journal of Environment and Policy Issues, 4, 2.

[19]   Enete, I.C. and Ebenebe, I.N. (2009) Analysis of Rainfall Distribution over Enugu during the Little Dry Season (1990-2005). Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 2, 182-189.

[20]   Ogolo, E.O. and Adeyemi, B. (2009) Variations and Trends of Some Meteorological Parameters at Ibadan, Nigeria. Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 10, 980-987.

[21]   Thompson, O.A. and Amos, T.T. (2010) Climate Change and Food Security in Nigeria. Journal of Meteorological and Climate Science, 8, 91.

[22]   Umar, A.T. (2010) Recent Trends and Variability in the Length of Growing Season in Northern Nigeria. Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science, 8, 41-46.

[23]   Odjugo, P.A.O. (2010) General Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Nigeria. Journal of Human Ecology, 29, 47-55.

[24]   Obot, N.I., Chendo, M.A.C., Udo, S.O. and Ewona, I.O. (2010) Evaluation of Rainfall Trend for Nigeria for 30 Years (1978-2007). International Journal of Physical Sciences, 5, 2217-2222.

[25]   Amadi, S.O. and Chigbu, T.O. (2014) Trends and Variations of Some Meteorological Parameters in Uyo, Nigeria. International Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences and Technology, 25, 36-35.

[26]   Adejuwon, J.O. (2012) Rainfall Seasonality in the Niger Delta Belt, Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 5, 51-60.

[27]   Olaniyi, O.A., Funmlayo, O.A. and Olutimehin, I.O. (2014) Review of Climate Change and Its Effect on Nigeria Ecosystem. International Journal of Environment and Pollution Research, 2, 70-81.

[28]   Nwaogazie, I.L. and Ologhadien, I. (2014) Trend in Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment of Nigerian Gulf of Guinea. Standard Scientific Research and Essays, 2, 516-523.

[29]   Ebele, N.E. and Emodi, N.V. (2016) Climate Change and Its Impact in Nigerian Economy. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 10, 1-13.

[30]   Elisha, I., Sawa, B.A. and Lawrence, E.U. (2017) Evidence of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies among Grain Farmers in Sokoto State, Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Environmental Science, Toxicology and Food Technology (IOSR-JESTFT), 11, 1-7.

[31]   Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric Tests against Trend. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.

[32]   Zhang, Q., Liu, C., Xu, C.Y., Xu, Y. and Jiang, T. (2006) Observed Trends of Annual Maximum Water Level and Stream Flow during Past 130 Years in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 324, 255-265.

[33]   Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London.

[34]   Lehmann, E.L. (1975) Non-Parametric, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Holden-Day, San Francisco.

[35]   Longobardi, A. and Villani, P. (2010) Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Time Series in the Mediterranean Area. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1538-1546.

[36]   Zhang, Y.M., Wen, J. and Wang, X.H. (2011) Study on the Change Trend of Precipitation and Temperature in Kunming City Based on Mann-Kendall Analysis. In: Future Computer, Communication, Control and Automation, Vol. 119 of Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing, Springer, Berlin, 505-513.

[37]   Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379-1389.

[38]   Sharma, S., Swayne, D.A. and Obimbo, O. (2016) Trend Analysis and Change Point Techniques: A Survey. Energy, Ecology and Environment, 1, 123-130.

[39]   Matteson, D.S. and James, N.A. (2013) A Nonparametric Approach for Multiple Change Point Analysis of Multivariate Data. Journal of American Statistical Association, 109, 334-345.

[40]   Baranowski, R. and Fryzlewicz, P. (2014) WBS: Wild Binary Segmentation for Multiple Change-Point Detection. R Package Version 1.1.

[41]   Fryzlewicz, P. (2013) Wild Binary Segmentation for Multiple Change Point Detection. Department of Statistics, London School of Economics, London.

[42]   Erdman, C. and Emerson, J.W. (2007) BCP: An R Package for Performing a Bayesian Analysis of Change Point Problems. Journal of Statistical Software, 23, 1-13.

[43]   McGilchrist, C.A. and Woodyer, K.D. (1975) Note on a Distribution-Free CUSUM Technique. Technometrics, 17, 321-325.

[44]   Taubenheim, J. (1989) An Easy Procedure for Detecting a Discontinuity in a Digital Time Series. Zeitschrift für Meteorol, 39, 344-347.

[45]   Sneyers, R. (1990) On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. World Meterological Organizaion, Geneva.

[46]   Seabold, S. and Perktold, J. (2010) Statsmodels: Econometric and Modeling with Python. 9th Python in Science Conference, Austin, 28 June-3 July, 2010, 57-61.

[47]   R Core Team (2021) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna.

[48]   Patakamuri, S.K. (2022) Trendchange: Innovative Trend Analysis and Time-Series Change Point Analysis. The R Project for Statistical Computing, Vienna.

[49]   Udosen, C.E. (2012) Rainfall Trends in Uyo-Akwa Ibom State and Its Implication on Urban Flooding. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 7, 79-85.

[50]   Okon, K.E., Oworen, U., Daniel, K.S. and Okon, I.K. (2019) Occupational Hazard and Work Safety among Chainsaw Operators in Nigeria. Environment, 3, 8-20.

[51]   Wang, C. and Kang, Y. (2012) Feature Extraction Techniques of Non-Stationary Signals for Fault Diagnosis in Machinery Systems. Journal of Signal and Information Processing, 3, 16-25.

[52]   Ramaseshan, S. (1996) Urban Hydrology in Different Climate Conditions. Lecture Notes of the International Course on Urban Drainage in Developing Countries, Regional Engineering College, Warangal.

[53]   Rashid, M., Faruque, S. and Alam, J. (2012) Modelling of Short Duration Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (SDRIDF) Equation for Sylhet City in Bangladesh. ARPN Journal of Science and Technology, 2, 92-95.

[54]   Gilbert, R.O. (1987) Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring. John Wiley and Sons, New York.

[55]   Von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 352.

[56]   Hamed, K.H. and Rao, A.R. (1998) A Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test for Auto-Correlated Data. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196.

[57]   Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002) The Influence of Autocorrelation on the Ability to Detect Trend in Hydrological Series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1807-1829.

[58]   Yue, S. and Wang, C.Y. (2002) The Applicability of Pre-Whitening to Eliminate the Influence of Serial Correlation on the Mann-Kendall Test. Water Resources Research, 38, 4-7.

[59]   Sam, M.G., Nwaogazie, I.L. and Ikebude, C. (2021) Improving Indian Meteorological Department Method for 24-Hourly Rainfall Downscaling to Shorter Durations for IDF Modeling. International Journal of Hydrology, 52, 72-82.

[60]   Cheng, L. and AghaKouchak, A. (2014) Non-Stationarity Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate. Science Reports, 4, Article No. 7093.

[61]   El Adlouni, S., Ouarda, T.B.M.J., Zhang, X., Roy, R. and Bobee, B. (2007) Generalized Maximum Likelihood Estimators for the Non-Stationary Generalized Extreme Value Model. Water Resources Research, 43, W03410.

[62]   Cheng, L., et al. (2014) Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis in a Changing Climate. Climate Change, 127, 353-369.

[63]   Ganguli, P. and Coulibaly, P. (2017) Does Non-Stationary in Rainfall Require Non-Stationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 6461-6483.

[64]   Shadmani, M., Maron, S. and Roknian, M. (2012) Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Test in Arid Regions of Iran. Water Resources Management, 26, 211-224.

[65]   Ahmad, I., Tango, D., Wang, T., Wang, M. and Wagan, B. (2015) Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan, Advances in Meteorology, 2015, Article ID: 431860.

[66]   Okafor, G.C., Jimoh, O.D. and Larbi, K.I. (2017) Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 7, 161-175.