AS  Vol.13 No.3 , March 2022
Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market
Abstract: Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM); 2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price; 3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure; secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data; a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.
Cite this paper: Dandar, Y. and Chang, L. (2022) Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market. Agricultural Sciences, 13, 467-490. doi: 10.4236/as.2022.133032.

[1]   Oyungerel, D., Juuperelmaa, U., Nasanjargal, D., Altangoo, G. and Battumur, S. (2014) Distribution and Genetic Resource of Mongolian Natural Wild Sea Buckthorn/Hippophae.Rh. Mongolian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 13, 55-59.

[2]   Gonchigsumlaa, G., von Cramon-Taubadel, S., Soninkishig, N. and Buerkert, A. (2020) Competitiveness of Sea Buckthorn Farming in Mongolia: A Policy Analysis Matrix. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics, 121, 77-88.

[3]   Tuvshintogs, B., Bumtsesteg, G. and Bulganchimeg, D. (2015) Economic Research Institute. Mongolian Bank, Ulaanbaatar.

[4]   Work Bank Group/IFC (2018) Investment Reform Map for Mongolia: A Foundation for a New Investment Policy & Promotion Strategy. Mongolia Investment Policy and Agriculture Investment Promotion (IPAIP) Project.

[5]   Minister of Agricultual and Food (2010) Seabuckthorn Nationale Program. Ulaanbator, Mongolia.

[6]   FAO and NSOM (2015) National Statistics Office of Mongolia Indicators for Food Security Statistics 2015. Ulaanbator.

[7]   Цэвэлма, X. (2017) Seabuckthorn Cadastre Initiative. Proceedings of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, 57, 221.

[8]   Munkhbayar, D., Ariuntungalag, J., Delgersuuri, G. and Badamkhand, D. (2014) Enzymatic Technology for Sea Buckthorn Oil Extraction and Its Biochemical Analysis. Mongolian Journal of Chemistry, 15, 62-65.

[9]   Enkh-Amgalan, T. (2016) Uvssea Buckthorn’ Geographic Indication (GI). Lessons learnt and experiences.

[10]   Nasanjargal, D. (2022) EU Trade Related Assistance for Mongolia (TRAM), Trade Policy.

[11]   Martincus, C.V. and Carballo, J. (2010) Is Export Promotion Effective in Developing Countries? Firm-Level Evidence on the Intensive and the Extensive Margins of Exports.

[12]   Frempong, A. and Rasmuseen Debra, C. (2015) Agriculture in Transition Agricultural Productivity and Marketing Debra Rasmussen and Charles Annor-Frempong Mongolia.

[13]   Ganzorig, G. (2016) Competitiveness of Pastoral Livestock Production and Sea Buckthorn Farming in Mongolia: Application of Policy Analysis Matrix, Dissertation Report.

[14]   Tan, C.S. (1984) World Rubber Market Structure and Stabilisation: An Econometric Study. World Bank, Washington DC.

[15]   Tan, S., Barlow, C.S., et al. (1914) The World Rubber Industry. Routledge, London.

[16]   Arshad, F.M. and Mohamed, Z. (1980) Price Discovery through Crude Palm Oil Futures: An Economic Evaluation 1. Faculty of Economics and Management Universiti Putra Malaysia.

[17]   Goodwin, J.W. (1994) Agricultural Price Analysis and Forecasting. Jon Wiley & Sons, New York.

[18]   Khin, A.A. (2010) Econometric Forecasting Models for Short Term Natural Rubber Price. Research Gate.

[19]   Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.

[20]   Gujarati, D.N. (2003) Basic Econometrics. McGraw Hill, New York.

[21]   Labys, W.C. (2005) Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis.

[22]   Robert, D.L.R. and Pindyck, S. (2013) Microeconomics. 8th Edition.

[23]   White, H. (1980) A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48.

[24]   Studenmund, A.H. (2014) Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide. Pearson Education Limited, Harlow.

[25]   Khin, A.A. and Thambiah, S. (2015) Natural Rubber Prices Forecasting Using Simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price System Equation and VECM Model: Between Theory and Reality. Proceeding of the 2nd International Conference on Agriculture and Forestry, 1, 10-12.