Fraol Abebe Wudineh^1*, Semu Ayalew Moges², Belete Berhanu Kidanewold¹

Show more
¹ School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Connecticut, USA.
Show less

Abstract: Flood events vary with sub-regions, sites and time and show complex characteristics. This study investigated temporal variabilities in flood discharges and relationships with principal driving factors in data scarce Wabi Shebele River Basin. The preliminary analysis using exploratory data analysis (EDA) on annual and seasonal maximum discharge reveals that there are cycles of extreme flows at five- and ten-year intervals respectively throughout the basin. The statistical verification using the Mann-Kendall test and Quantile perturbation method indicates a significant trend in flood magnitude and frequency entire the basin in the early 21st century. For longest period (1980-2010) annual maximum stream flow shows significant positive trend (p-value < 0.05) in middle catchments and negative trend (p-value < 0.05) in eastern catchments. The years: 1986-1995, 2006-2010 are the years in which positive significant anomalies occurred in all seasons, while the years: 1980-1985, 1996-2005 are the occurrence years of significant negative anomalies. Rainfall from climate drivers; DA, BE, VS and fraction of sand from environmental background drivers; fraction of forest and population density from external factors were identified as the powerful driving factors of flood variabilities in the Wabi Shebele River Basin.

Keywords: Flood Events, Watersheds, Wabi Shebele River, Hydrological Model, Driving Factors of Flood

Cite this paper: Wudineh, F. , Moges, S. and Kidanewold, B. (2021) Flood Change Detection and Attribution Using Simulation Approach in Data-Scarce Watersheds: A Case of Wabi Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 13, 362-393. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2021.135023.

References

[1]   Kay, A.L., Crooks, S.M., Pall, P. and Stone, D.A. (2011) Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 Flood Risk in England to Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Catchment-Based Study. Journal of Hydrology, 406, 97-112.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.006

[2]   Kundzewicz, Z.W. and Stoffel, M. (2016) Anatomy of Flood Risk. In: Kundzewicz, Z., Stoffel, M., Niedzwiedz, T. and Wyzga, B., Eds., Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin, Springer, Cham, 39-52.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41923-7_3

[3]   Bissolli, P., Friedrich, K., Rapp, J. and Ziese, M. (2011) Flooding in Eastern Central Europe in May 2010—Reasons, Evolution and Climatological Assessment. Weather, 66, 147-153.
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.759

[4]   Li, Z., Liu, D., Li, X.-Y., Wu, H., Li, G.-Y. and Li, Y.-T. (2016) Runoff Coefficient Characteristics and Its Dominant Influencing Factors in a Riparian Grassland in the Qinghai Lake Watershed, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9, Article No. 397.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2404-z

[5]   Williams, A.P. and Funk, C. (2011) A Westward Extension of the Warm Pool Leads to a Westward Extension of the Walker Circulation, Drying Eastern Africa. Climate Dynamics, 37, 2417-2435.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y

[6]   Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change, EPCC Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change (2015) First Assessment Report, Summary of Reports for Policy Makers. Ethiopian Academy of Sciences, Addis Ababa.

[7]   Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., et al. (2014) Understanding Flood Regime Changes in Europe: A State-of-the-Art Assessment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 2735-2772.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014

[8]   Akola, J., Binala, J. and Ochwo, J. (2018) Guiding Developments in Flood-Prone Areas: Challenges and Opportunities in Dire Dawa City, Ethiopia. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 11, a704.
https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v11i3.704

[9]   Mamo, S., Berhanu, B. and Melesse, A.M. (2019) Historical Flood Events and Hydrological Extremes in Ethiopia. In: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation, Elsevier, 379-384.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815998-9.00029-4

[10]   Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) (2003) Wabi Shebele River Basin Integrated Master Plan Study Project. Vol. VII Water Resources, Part 2 Hydrology, Part. Ethiopia. Part; Ethiopia.

[11]   Tadesse, T., Haigh, T., Wall, N., et al. (2016) Linking Seasonal Predictions to Decision-Making and Disaster Management in the Greater Horn of Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, ES89-ES92.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00269.1

[12]   UNDP (2005) Drought and Floods Stress Livelihoods and Food Security in the Ethiopian Somali Region—Ethiopia.
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/drought-and-floods-stress-livelihoods-and-food-security-ethiopian-somali-region

[13]   Adnan, N.A. (2010) Quantifying the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Hydrological Response of a Monsoonal Catchment. University of Southampton, Southampton.

[14]   Taye, M.T. and Willems, P. (2012) Temporal Variability of Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Blue Nile Basin. Water Resources Research, 48, W03513.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011466

[15]   Allamano, P., Claps, P. and Laio, F. (2009) An Analytical Model of the Effects of Catchment Elevation on the Flood Frequency Distribution. Water Resources Research, 45, W01402.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006658

[16]   Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z., Palutikof, J. and Shaohong, W. (2008) World Meteorological Organisation (WMO); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change and Water [Electronic Resource]: IPCC Technical Paper VI, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva.

[17]   Kundzewicz, Z.W., Stoffel, M., Niedzwiedz, T. and Wyzga, B. (2018) Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin. Springer International Publishing AG, Switzerland.

[18]   Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Wyzga, B., Kundzewicz, Z.W., et al. (2016) Variability of Flood Frequency and Magnitude during the Late 20th and Early 21st Centuries in the Northern Foreland of the Tatra Mountains. In: Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin, Springer International Publishing AG, Switzerland, 231-256.

[19]   IPCC (2010) Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change: The World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 14-16 September 2009: Meeting Report; Stocker, T., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, The Physical Science Basis, Eds.; IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit: Bern, Switzerland.

[20]   Awass, A.A. (2009) Hydrological Drought Analysis—Occurrence, Severity, Risks: The Case of Wabi Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia. Seigen University, Seigen.

[21]   BCEOM_ORSTOM_EDF (1973) Hydrological Survey of the Wabi Shebelle Basin.
http://www.hydrosciences.fr/sierem/Bibliotheque/biblio/Wabi/Wabi-20-20hydrological-20survey-20-20Part-20I.pdf

[22]   International Water Management Institute, IWMI (2015) Drivers of Hydrological Dynamics in the Bale Eco-Region.
https://phe-ethiopia.org/pdf/7.%20Drivers-20-of-hydrological-20dynamics-%2020in-20the-20BER.pdf

[23]   Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nation, FAO (1961) Soil Maps and Soil Databases.
http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-maps-and-database/FAO-UNESCO-soil-map-of-the-world/en

[24]   Neitsch, S.L., Grassland, S. and W.R.L. (2005) Blackland Research Center Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Theoretical Documentation: Version 2005; Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory; Blackland Research Center: Temple (Texas).

[25]   Ven Te Chow, C., Maidment, D.R. and Mays, L.W. (1963) Applied Hydrology; Technical Correspondence School, N.Z. Department of Education, Wellington.

[26]   Moriasi, D.N., Arnold, J.G., Van Liew, M.W., Bingner, R.L., Harmel, R.D. and Veith, T.L. (2007) Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50, 885-900.
https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153

[27]   Schuol, J. and Abbaspour, K.C. (2007) Using Monthly Weather Statistics to Generate Daily Data in a SWAT Model Application to West Africa. Ecological Modelling, 201, 301-311.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.09.028

[28]   Monteith, J.L. (1965) Evaporation and Environment. Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology, 19, 205-234.

[29]   Priestley, C.H.B. and Taylor, R.J. (1972) On the Assessment of Surface Heat Flux and Evaporation Using Large-Scale Parameters. Monthly Weather Review, 100, 81-82.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0081:OTAOSH>2.3.CO;2

[30]   Hargreaves, G.H. and Samani, Z.A. (1985) Reference Crop Evapotranspiration from Temperature. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 1, 96-99.
https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773

[31]   Keast, D. and Ellison, J. (2013) Magnitude Frequency Analysis of Small Floods Using the Annual and Partial Series. Water, 5, 1816-1829.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041816

[32]   Malamud, B.D. and Turcotte, D.L. (2006) The Applicability of Power-Law Frequency Statistics to Floods. Journal of Hydrology, 322, 168-180.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.032

[33]   Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin, London.

[34]   Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric Tests against Trend. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187

[35]   Ntegeka, V. and Willems, P. (2008) Trends and Multidecadal Oscillations in Rainfall Extremes, Based on a More than 100-Year Time Series of 10 Min Rainfall Intensities at Uccle, Belgium. WRCR Water Resources Research, 44, W07402.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006471

[36]   Onyutha, C. (2016) Statistical Analyses of Potential Evapotranspiration Changes over the Period 1930-2012 in the Nile River Riparian Countries. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 226-227, 80-95.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.05.015

[37]   Tabari, H., AghaKouchak, A. and Willems, P.A. (2014) Perturbation Approach for Assessing Trends in Precipitation Extremes across Iran. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 1420-1427.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.019

[38]   Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Uhlemann, S., Delgado, J. and Hundecha, Y. (2012) HESS Opinions “More Efforts and Scientific Rigour Are Needed to Attribute Trends in Flood Time Series”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1379-1387.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1379-2012

[39]   Rahman, A.S. and Rahman, A. (2020) Application of Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis in Regional Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in New South Wales, Australia. Water (Switzerland), 12, 781.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030781

[40]   Camdevyren, H., Demyr, N., Kanik, A. and Keskyn, S. (2005) Use of Principal Component Scores in Multiple Linear Regression Models for Prediction of Chlorophyll-a in Reservoirs. Ecological Modelling, 181, 581-589.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.06.043

[41]   Kerr, R.A. (1992) Unmasking a Shifty Climate System. Science, 255, 1508-1510.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5051.1508

[42]   Nash, J.E. and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970) River Flow Forecasting through Conceptual Models, Part I—A Discussion of Principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10, 282-290.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6

[43]   NMA (1996) Climatic and Agroclimatic Resources of Ethiopia. NMSA Meteorological Research Report Series, Ethiopia.

[44]   Sutfin, N.A. and Wohl, E. (2019) Elevational Differences in Hydrogeomorphic Disturbance Regime Influence Sediment Residence Times within Mountain River Corridors. Nature Communications, 10, Article No. 2221.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09864-w

[45]   Al-Rawas, G.A. and Valeo, C. (2010) Relationship between Wadi Drainage Characteristics and Peak-Flood Flows in Arid Northern Oman. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55, 377-393.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626661003718318

[46]   Prachansri, S. (2007) Analysis of Soil and Land Cover Parameters for Flood Hazard Assessment; 106.
https://webapps.itc.utwente.nl/librarywww/papers_2007/msc/aes/prachansri.pdf

[47]   Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) (2004) Wabi Shebele River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan, Land Use/Land Cover Study, Part. Ethiopia. Part; Ethiopia.

[48]   Liu, Y., Yuan, X., Guo, L., Huang, Y. and Zhang, X. (2017) Driving Force Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Flash Floods in Sichuan Province. Sustainability, 9, 1527.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091527

[49]   Huang, P.-C. (2020) Analysis of Hydrograph Shape Affected by Flow-Direction Assumptions in Rainfall-Runoff Models. Water (Switzerland), 12, 452.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020452