Back
 CWEEE  Vol.10 No.2 , April 2021
Site and Regional Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Central Macedonia, Greece
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the trend of precipitation in Kilkis region (Greece) at the site and regional level in various time scales. At the site level, the precipitation trend was analyzed using three tests: 1) Mann-Kendall, 2) Sen’s T and 3) Spearman while the trend slope was estimated using the Sen’s estimator. At a regional level, nonparametric spatial tests such as Regional Average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) and BECD’s (Bootstrap Empirical Cumulative Distributions) were elaborated with and without the effect of cross correlation. The trend of precipitation was noticed generally downward at annual time scale and statistically significant at 5% level of significance only in only one station. The results of the analysis of trends at the regional level showed in total the influence of cross correlation in the time series since the number of trends detected is reduced when cross correlation is preserved. Precipitation data from 12 stations were used. The study results benefit water resource management, drought mitigation, socio-economic development, and sustainable agricultural planning in the region.
Cite this paper: Margaritidis, A. (2021) Site and Regional Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Central Macedonia, Greece. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 10, 49-70. doi: 10.4236/cweee.2021.102004.
References

[1]   Gemmer, M., Becker, S. and Jiang, T. (2004) Observed Monthly Precipitation Trends in China 1951-2002. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77, 39-45.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-003-0018-3

[2]   Parry, M.L., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., Van Der Linden, P. and Hanson, C. (2007) IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976.

[3]   Xu, L., Zhou, H., Du, L., Yao, H. and Wang, H. (2015) Precipitation Trends and Variability from 1950 to 2000 in Arid Lands of Central Asia. Journal of Arid Land, 7, 514-526.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-015-0045-9

[4]   Hu, Y., Wang, S., Song, X. and Wang, J. (2017) Precipitation Changes in the Mid-Latitudes of the Chinese Mainland during 1960-2014. Journal of Arid Land, 9, 924-937.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-017-0105-4

[5]   Wu, Y., Bake, B., Zhang, J. and Rasulov, H. (2015) Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Drought in North Xinjiang, China, 1961-2012 Based on Meteorological Drought Index. Journal of Arid Land, 7, 527-543.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-015-0125-x

[6]   Yue, S. and Wang, C.Y. (2002) Regional Streamflow Trend Detection with Consideration of Both Temporal and Spatial Correlation. International Journal of Climatology, 22, 933-946.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.781

[7]   Buffoni, L., Maugeri, M. and Nanni, T. (1999) Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 63, 33-40.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s007040050089

[8]   Piccarreta, M., Capolongo, D. and Boenzi, F. (2004) Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Drought in Basilicata from 1923 to 2000 within a Southern Italy Context. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 907-922.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1038

[9]   Partal, T. and Kahya, E. (2006) Trend Analysis in Turkish Precipitation Data. Hydrological Processes, 20, 2011-2026.
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993

[10]   Cannarozzo, M., Noto, L.V. and Viola, F. (2006) Spatial Distribution of Rainfall Trends in Sicily (1921-2000). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 31, 1201-1211.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2006.03.022

[11]   Smadi, M.M. and Zghoul, A. (2006) A Sudden Change in Rainfall Characteristics in Amman, Jordan during the Mid1950s. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2, 84-91.

[12]   De Lima, M.I.P., Marques, A.C., De Lima, J.L.M.P. and Coelho, M.F.E.S. (2007) Precipitation Trends in Mainland Portugal in the Period 1941-2000. In: Lobo Ferreira, J.P. and Viera, J.M.P., Eds., Water in Celtic Countries: Quantity, Quality and Climate Variability, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, 94-102.

[13]   Chaouche, K., Neppel, L., Dieulin, C., Pujol, N., Ladouche, B., Martin, E. and Caballero, Y. (2010) Analyses of Precipitation, Temperature and Evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean Region in the Context of Climate Change. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 342, 234-243.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2010.02.001

[14]   Luna, M.Y., Guijarro, J.A. and López, J.A. (2012) A Monthly Precipitation Database for Spain (1851-2008): Reconstruction, Homogeneity and Trends. Advances in Science and Research, 8, 1-4.
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-1-2012

[15]   Dalezios, N.R. and Bartzokas, A. (1995) Daily Precipitation Variability in Semiarid Agricultural Regions in Macedonia, Greece. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 40, 569-585.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669509491445

[16]   Kambezidis, H.D., Larissi, I.K., Nastos, P.T. and Paliatsos, A.G. (2010) Spatial Variability and Trends of the Rain Intensity over Greece. Advances in Geosciences, 26, 65-69.
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-65-2010

[17]   Karpouzos, D.K., Kavalieratou, S. and Babajimopoulos, C. (2010) Trend Analysis of Precipitation Data in Pieria Region (Greece). European Water, 30, 31-40.

[18]   Nastos, P.T. and Zerefos, C.S. (2010) Climate Change and Precipitation in Greece. Hellenic Journal of Geosciences, 45, 185-192.

[19]   Myronidis, D., Stathis, D., Ioannou, K. and Fotakis, D. (2012) An Integration of Statistics Temporal Methods to Track the Effect of Drought in a Shallow Mediterranean Lake. Water Resources Management, 26, 4587-4605.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0169-z

[20]   Matalas, N.C. and Jacobs, B. (1964) A Correlation Procedure for Augmenting Hydrologic Data. US Government Printing Office, 434, 1-13.
https://doi.org/10.3133/pp434E

[21]   Margaritidis, K.A and Karpouzos, K.D. (2015) Homogeneity of Rainfall Time Series Analysis in the Wider Area of Doiran. Proceedings of the 9th Panhellenic Conference of Agricultural Engineering, Thessaloniki, 8-9 October 2015, 123-132.

[22]   Rai, R.K., Upadhyay, A. and Ojha, C.S.P. (2010) Temporal Variability of Climatic Parameters of Yamuna River Basin: Spatial Analysis of Persistence, Trend and Periodicity. The Open Hydrology Journal, 4, 184-210.
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874378101004010184

[23]   Yue, S., Pilon, P. and Cavadias, G. (2002) Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests for Detecting Monotonic Trends in Hydrological Series. Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7

[24]   Eymen, A. and Köylü, ü. (2018) Seasonal Trend Analysis and ARIMA Modeling of Relative Humidity and Wind Speed Time Series around Yamula Dam. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131, 601-612.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0591-8

[25]   Sen, P.K. (1968) On a Class of Aligned Rank Order Tests in Two-Way Layouts. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 39, 1115-1124.
https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177698236

[26]   Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379-1389.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934

[27]   Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J.P. (1984) Nonparametric Tests for Trend in Water Quality. Water Resources Research, 20, 127-136.
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i001p00127

[28]   Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M. and Kroll, C.N. (2000) Trends in Floods and Low Flows in the United States: Impact of Spatial Correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240, 90-105.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X

[29]   Helsel, D.R. and Frans, L.M. (2006) Regional Kendall Test for Trend. Environmental Science and Technology, 40, 4066-4073.
https://doi.org/10.1021/es051650b

[30]   Palizdan, N., Falamarzi, Y., Huang, Y.F., Lee, T.S. and Ghazali, A.H. (2014) Regional Precipitation Trend Analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 117, 589-606.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1026-6

[31]   Yue, S. and Hashino, M. (2003) Long Term Trends of Annual and Monthly Precipitation in Japan. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39, 587-596.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03677.x

[32]   Yue, S., Pilon, P. and Phinney, B.O.B. (2003) Canadian Streamflow Trend Detection: Impacts of Serial and Cross-Correlation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48, 51-63.
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.51.43478

[33]   Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric Tests against Trend. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187

[34]   Myronidis, D. (2010) Research of the Causes in the Drop of Lake Doirani’s Water Level (Greece) and Elaboration of a Pilot Action Plan for Its Restoration, Final Report. State Scholarship Foundation, Greece, 79.

[35]   Ruixia, G., Clara, D., Laurent, T. and Flavio, L. (2019) Human Influence on Winter Precipitation Trends (1921-2015) over North America and Eurasia. Revealed by Dynamical Adjustment. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 3426-3434.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081316

[36]   Mavromatis, T. and Stathis D. (2011) Response of the Water Balance in Greece to Temperature and Precipitation Trends. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104, 13-24.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0320-9

[37]   Feidas, X., Noulopoulou, C., Makrogiannis, T. and Bora-Senta, E. (2007) Trend Analysis of Precipitation Time Series in Greece and Their Relationship with Circulation Using Surface and Satellite Data: 1955-2001. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 87, 155-177.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0200-5

 
 
Top