Back
 AJCC  Vol.10 No.1 , March 2021
The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Production in Ethiopia: Application of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model
Abstract: The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.
Cite this paper: Solomon, R. , Simane, B. and Zaitchik, B. (2021) The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Production in Ethiopia: Application of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model. American Journal of Climate Change, 10, 32-50. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.101003.
References

[1]   Arndt, C., Farmer, W., Tarp, F., Strzepek, K., & Thurlow, J. (2011). Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Tanzania. Working Paper, No. 2010/101, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER (United Nations University-World Institute of Development Economics Research).
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6188

[2]   Arndt, C., Strzepeck, K., Tarp, F., Thurlow, J., Fant, C., & Wright, L. (2010). Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique. Working Paper, No. 2010/101, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER (United Nations University-World Institute of Development Economics Research).

[3]   Deressa, T., & Hassan, R. M. (2009). Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-Section Measures. Journal of African Economies, 18, 529-554.
https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejp002

[4]   EDRI (Ethiopian Development Research Institute) (2009). Ethiopia: Input Output Table and Social Accounting Matrix. Addis Ababa.

[5]   EPA (Environmental Protection Authority) (2011). Ethiopia’s Vision for a Climate Resilient Green Economy.

[6]   Gebreegziabher, Z., Kassahun, M., & Mekonnen, A. (2011). Crop-Livestock Inter-Linkages and Climate Change Implications on Ethiopia’s Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach. Climate Change Workshop, 20 July 2011.

[7]   Gebreegziabher, Z., Stage, J., Mekonnen, A., & Alemu, A. (2011). Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Environment for Development. EfD DP 11-09.

[8]   IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007). Climate Change: Synthesis Report. Valencia.

[9]   McSweeney, C., New, M., & Lizcano, G. (2010). UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Ethiopia.

[10]   MoFED (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) (2013). Annual Progress Report for the Year 2011/12 GTP Period. Addis Ababa.

[11]   Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., & Fischer, C. (2004). Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production under SRES Emissions and Socio-Economic Scenarios: A New Assessment. Global Environmental Change, 14, 53-67.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008

[12]   Reid, H., Sahlén, I., Stage, J., & MacGregor, J. (2008). Climate Change Impacts on Namibia’s Natural Resources and Economy. Climate Policy, 8, 452-466.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2008.9685709

[13]   Robinson, S., Strzepeck, K., & Willenbockel, L. D. (2011). A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia. Working Paper, No. 2011/89, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER (United Nations University-World Institute of Development Economics Research).

[14]   Simane, B., Zaitchik, B. F., & Mesfin, D. (2012). Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 9, 610-631.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph9020610

[15]   Thurlow, J., Zhu, T., & Diao, X. (2009). The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Economic Growth and Poverty in Zambia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00890, Washington DC: IFPRI.

[16]   Wolde, E. (2008). Global Climate Change and Its Economic Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa: Simulation of a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Ethiopia. MSc. Thesis, Oslo: Department of Economics, University of Oslo.

[17]   World Bank (2008). A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. Environment and Natural Resource Management Report, No. 46946-ET, Washington DC: World Bank, Sustainable Development Department, Africa Region.

[18]   Zhai, F., Lin, T., & Byambadorj, E. (2009). A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China. Asian Development Review, 26, 206-225.

 
 
Top