CWEEE  Vol.9 No.4 , October 2020
Hydrological Modeling of Upper OumErRabia Basin (Morocco), Comparative Study of the Event-Based and Continuous-Process HEC-HMS Model Methods
Abstract: Human population growth and land-use changes raise demand and competition for water resources. The Upper OumErRabia River Basin is experiencing high rangeland and matorral conversion to irrigated agricultural land expansion. Given Morocco’s per capita water availability, River-basin hydrologic modelling could potentially bring together agricultural, water resources and conservation objectives. However, not everywhere have hydrological models considered events and continuous assessment of climatic data. In this study, HEC-HMS modelling approach is used to explore the event-based and continuous-process simulation of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) impact on water balance. The use of HEC-GeoHMS facilitated the digital data processing for coupling with the model. The basin’s physical characteristics and the hydro-climatic data helped to generate a geospatial database for HEC-HMS model. We analyzed baseline and future scenario changes for the 1980-2016 period using the SCS Curve-Number and the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) loss methods. SMA was coupled with the Hargreaves evapotranspiration method. Model calibration focused on reproducing observed basin runoff hydrograph. To evaluate the model performance for both calibration and validation, the Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RSR) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) criteria were exploited. The average calibration NSE values were 0.740 and 0.585 for event-based (daily) and continuous-process (annual) respectively. The R2, RSR and PBIAS values were 0.624, 0.634 and +16.7 respectively. This is rated as good performance besides the validation simulations were satisfactory for subsequent hydrologic analyses. We conclude that the basin’s hydrologic response to positive and negative LULCC scenarios is significant both positive and negative scenarios. The study findings provide useful information for key stakeholders/decision-makers in water resources.
Cite this paper: Msaddek, M. , Kimbowa, G. , Garouani, A. , (2020) Hydrological Modeling of Upper OumErRabia Basin (Morocco), Comparative Study of the Event-Based and Continuous-Process HEC-HMS Model Methods. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 9, 159-184. doi: 10.4236/cweee.2020.94011.

[1]   Cheddadi, R., et al. (2015) A History of Human Impact on Moroccan Mountain Landscapes. African Archaeological Review, 32, 233-248.

[2]   Tekken, V. and Kropp, J.P. (2012) Climate-Driven or Human-Induced: Indicating Severe Water Scarcity in the Moulouya River Basin (Morocco). Water, 4, 959-982.

[3]   Anaba, L.A., Banadda, N., Kiggundu, N., Wanyama, J., Engel, B. and Moriasi, D. (2017) Application of Swat to Assess the Effects of Land Use Change in the Murchison Bay Catchment in Uganda. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 6, 24-40.

[4]   Baker, T.J. and Miller, S.N. (2013) Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat) to Assess Land Use Impact on Water Resources in an East African Watershed. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 100-111.

[5]   Guo, H., Hu, Q. and Jiang, T. (2008) Annual and Seasonal Streamflow Responses to Climate and Land-Cover Changes in the Poyang Lake Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 355, 106-122.

[6]   Hamel, P., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Sim, S. and Mueller, C. (2015) Science of the Total Environment a New Approach to Modeling the Sediment Retention Service (Invest 3. 0): Case Study of the Cape Fear Catchment, North Carolina, USA. Science of the Total Environment, 524-525, 166-177.

[7]   Li, Z., Liu, W.Z., Zhang, X.C. and Zheng, F.L. (2009) Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability on Hydrology in an Agricultural Catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology, 377, 35-42.

[8]   Meng, F.H., Liu, T., Huang, Y., Luo, M., Bao, A. and Hou, D.W. (2016) Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations in the Aksu River Basin. Water, 8, 338.

[9]   Milewski, A., Seyoum, W.M., Elkadiri, R. and Durham, M. (2020) Multi-Scale Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes in Northern Morocco. Geosciences, 10, 13.

[10]   Dabour, N. (2006) Water Resources and Their Use in Agriculture in Arab Countries. Journal of Economic Cooperation among Islamic Countries, 27, 1-38.

[11]   Jaw, T., Li, J.L., Hsu, K.L., Sorooshian, S. and Driouech, F. (2015) Evaluation for Moroccan Dynamically Downscaled Precipitation from GCM CHAM5 and Its Regional Hydrologic Response. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 3, 359-378.

[12]   Diao, X.S., Dinar, A., Roe, T. and Tsur, Y. (2008) A General Equilibrium Analysis of Conjunctive Ground and Surface Water Use with an Application to Morocco. Agricultural Economics, 38, 117-135.

[13]   Diyer, M., Namrani, H. and Elkadiri, A. (2013) Land Use and Land Management Practices in Environmental Perspective.

[14]   Linstadter, A., et al. (2010) Land Use and Land Cover in Southern Morocco: Managing Unpredictable Resources and Extreme Events. Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest Africa, 612-633.

[15]   Bouslihim, Y., et al. (2016) Hydrologic Modeling Using SWAT and GIS, Application to Subwatershed Bab-Merzouka (Sebou, Morocco). Journal of Geographical Systems, 8, 20-27.

[16]   Marchane, A., Tramblay, Y., Hanich, L., Ruelland, D. and Jarlan, L. (2017) Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources in the Rheraya Catchment (High Atlas, Morocco). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62, 979-995.

[17]   Barakat, A., El Rais, M., Rais, J., Aghezzaf, B. and Slassi, M. (2016) International Soil and Water Conservation Research Assessment of Spatial and Seasonal Water Quality Variation of Oum Er Rbia River (Morocco) Using Multivariate Statistical Techniques. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 4, 284-292.

[18]   El Jazouli, A., Barakat, A., Khellouk, R., Rais, J. and El Baghdadi, M. (2018) Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques for Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Effects on Soil Erosion in the High Basin of the Oum Er Rbia River (Morocco). Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, No. 13, 361-374.

[19]   Yan, T.Z., Shen, Z.Y. and Bai, J.W. (2017) Spatial and Temporal Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Miyun Reservoir Basin of China. Water, 9, 78.

[20]   El Azhari, M. and Loudyi, D. (2019) Analysis of the Water-Energy Nexus in Central Oum Er-Rbia Sub-Basin-Morocco. International Journal of River Basin Management, 17, 13-24.

[21]   World Bank (2017) Managing Urban Water Scarcity in Morocco. World Bank, Washington DC.

[22]   Chaponniere, A. and Smakhtin, V. (2006) A Review of Climate Change Scenarios and Preliminary Rainfall Trend Analysis in the Oum Er Rbia Basin, Morocco. International Water Management Institute, Colombo, 1-16.

[23]   Tangermann, J. and Bennani, H.A. (2014) Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change in Morocco. IOM, Le Grand-Saconnex.

[24]   Haan, C.T., Johnson, H.P., Brakensiek, D.L. and American Society of Agricultural Engineers (1982) Hydrologic Modeling of Small Watersheds.

[25]   Vieux, B.E. (2016) Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Using GIS. Springer, Dordrecht.

[26]   Singh, V.P. (2018) Hydrologic Modeling: Progress and Future Directions. Geoscience Letters, 5, Article No. 15.

[27]   Serban, P. (1990) World Meteorological Organization Operational Hydrology Report No. 34 Hydrological Models for Water-Resources System Design and Operation.

[28]   Dutta, P. and Sarma, A.K. (2020) Hydrological Modeling as a Tool for Water Resources Management of the Data-Scarce Brahmaputra Basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2020186.

[29]   Ougougdal, H.A., Khebiza, M.Y., Messouli, M. and Lachir, A. (2020) Assessment of Futurewater Demand and Supply under Ipcc Climate Change and Socio-Economic Scenarios, Using a Combination of Models in Ourika Watershed, High Atlas, Morocco. Water, 12, 1751.

[30]   Ben Salem, A., Messouli, M. and Yacoubi-Khebiza, M. (2011) Developing an Oasis-Based Water Management Tool: Ecohydrologic Approach and Weap Software for a Large Arid Catchment in Morocco. International Journal of Water Resources and Arid Environments, 1, 387-396.

[31]   Johannsen, I.M., Hengst, J.C., Goll, A., Hollermann, B. and Diekkrüger, B. (2016) Future of Water Supply and Demand in the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco, under Climate and Land Use Change. Water, 8, 11-13.

[32]   Choukri, F., et al. (2020) Distinct and Combined Impacts of Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Availability and Sediment Loads for a Water Supply Reservoir in Northern Morocco. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 8, 141-153.

[33]   Sertel, E., Imamoglu, M.Z., Cuceloglu, G. and Erturk, A. (2019) Impacts of Land Cover/Use Changes on Hydrological Processes in a Rapidly Urbanizing Mid-Latitude Water Supply Catchment. Water, 11, 1075.

[34]   Plesca, I., et al. (2012) Model Intercomparison to Explore Catchment Functioning: Results from a Remote Montane Tropical Rainforest. Ecological Modelling, 239, 3-13.

[35]   Khaddor, I., Achab, M. and Alaoui, A.H. (2015) Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff Using GIS, Hydrologic Modeling System and SCS Curves Number: Application to the Meghougha Watershed (Tangier, NW Morocco). European Journal of Scientific Research, 130, 31-45.

[36]   El Khalki, E.M., et al. (2018) Comparison of Modeling Approaches for Flood Forecasting in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11, Article No. 415.

[37]   Aqnouy, M., El Massari, J.E.S., Bouadila, A., Bouizrou, I. and Aoulad Mansour, M.R. (2018) Application of Hydrological Model “HEC HMS” in A Mediterranean Watershed (Ouedlaou, Northern of Morocco). International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, 24, 1773-1781.

[38]   El Khalki, E.M., et al. (2020) Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco. Water, 12, 437.

[39]   Benkirane, M., et al. (2020) an Approach for Flood Assessment by Numerical Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Zat Watershed (High Atlas, Morocco). Urban Water Journal, 17, 381-389.

[40]   Khattati, M., et al. (2016) Hydrological Modeling of Aguibatezziar Watershed (Morocco), Comparative Study of Two Different Hydrological Models. Journal of Geographical Systems, 8, 50-56.

[41]   Rochdane, S., Reichert, B., Messouli, M., Babqiqi, A. and Khebiza, M.Y. (2012) Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies. Water, 4, 28-44.

[42]   Acil, N. (2016) Remote Sensing-Based Monitoring of Snow Cover Dynamics and Its Influence on Vegetation Growth in the Middle Atlas Mountains. Lund University, Lund.

[43]   Balaghi, A.R., Hairech, T.E.L., Alaouri, M. and Motaouakil, S. (2016) Climate Change Impact Assessment Using MOSAICC in Morocco. Fao, Rome.

[44]   Bouabdelli, M. (1994) Tectonique de l’Est du Massif hercynien central (zone d’Azrou-Khénifra). Bulletin de l’Institut Scientifique, Rabat, No. 18, 145-168.

[45]   Bouabdelli, M. and Piqué, A. (1996) Du bassinsurdécrochement au bassind’avant-pays: Dynamique du bassind’Azrou-Khénifra (Marochercynien central). Journal of African Earth Sciences, 23, 213-224.

[46]   Pande, C.B., Moharir, K.N., Khadri, S.F.R. and Patil, S. (2018) Study of Land Use Classification in an Arid Region Using Multispectral Satellite Images. Applied Water Science, 8, Article No. 123.

[47]   Msaddek, M. (2016) Effetd’occupation du sol sur la réponsehydrologique du Haut bassinOumErRabia. Master’s Thesis, Université Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah, Fez.

[48]   El Garouani, A., Mulla, D.J., El Garouani, S. and Knight, J. (2017) Analysis of Urban Growth and Sprawl from Remote Sensing Data: Case of Fez, Morocco. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 6, 160-169.

[49]   Feldman, A.D. (2000) Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS, Technical Reference Manual. Technical Reference Manual, 45.

[50]   Scharffenberg, W.A. (2013) Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS, User’a Manual, 442.

[51]   Song, X., Kong, F. and Zhu, Z. (2011) Application of Muskingum Routing Method with Variable Parameters in Ungauged Basin. Water Science and Engineering, 4, 1-12.

[52]   Dhami, B.S. and Pandey, A. (2013) Comparative Review of Recently Developed Hydrologic Models. Journal of Indian Water Resources Society, 33, 34-42.

[53]   US Army Corps of Engineers (2017) Hydrologic Modeling System; Application Guide. US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington DC, 158.

[54]   Konecná, J., et al. (2020) Using WaTEM/SEDEM and HEC-HMS Models for the Simulation of Episodic Hydrological and Erosion Events in A Small Agricultural Catchment. Soil and Water Research, 15, 18-29.

[55]   Al-Mukhtar, M. and Al-Yaseen, F. (2019) Modeling Water Quality Parameters Using Data-Driven Models, a Case Study Abu-Ziriq Marsh in South of Iraq. Hydrology, 6, 24.

[56]   Chea, S. and Oeurng, C. (2017) Flow Simulation in an Ungauged Catchment of Tonle Sap Lake Basin in Cambodia: Application of the HEC-HMS Model. Water Utility Journal, 17, 3-17.

[57]   Halwatura, D. and Najim, M.M.M. (2013) Application of the HEC-HMS Model for Runoff Simulation in a Tropical Catchment. Environ. Model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 46, 55-162.

[58]   Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S. and Williams J.R., (1998) Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34, 73-89.

[59]   Ali, M., Khan, S.J., Aslam, I. and Khan, Z. (2011) Landscape and Urban Planning Simulation of the Impacts of Land-Use Change on Surface Runoff of Lai Nullah Basin in Islamabad, Pakistan. Landscape and Urban Planning, 102, 271-279.

[60]   Gebre, S.L. (2015) Application of the HEC-HMS Model for Runoff Simulation of Upper Blue Nile River Basin. Hydrology Current Research, 6, 1-8.

[61]   Paul, M. (2016) Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on Hydrological Processes in South Dakota Watersheds.

[62]   Bhuiyan, H., Mcnairn, H., Powers, J. and Merzouki, A. (2017) Application of HEC-HMS in a Cold Region Watershed and Use of RADARSAT-2 Soil Moisture in Initializing the Model. Hydrology, 4, 9.

[63]   Werren, G., Reynard, E., Lane, S.N. and Balin, D. (2016) Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping in Semi-Arid Piedmont Areas: A Case Study in Beni Mellal, Morocco. Natural Hazards, 81, 481-511.

[64]   Brirhet, H. and Benaabidate, L. (2016) Comparison of Two Hydrological Models (Lumped and Distributed) Aver a Pilot Area of the Issen Watershed in the Souss Basin, Morocco. European Scientific Journal, 12, 347-358.

[65]   Khaddor, I., Achab, M. and Alaoui, A.H. (2016) Hydrological Simulation (Rainfall-Runoff) of Kalaya Watershed (Tangier, Morocco) Using Geo-Spatial Tools. Journal of Water Sciences & Environment Technologies, 2016, 10-14.

[66]   Seif-Ennasr, M., et al. (2016) Climate Change and Adaptive Water Management Measures in Chtouka Ait Baha Region (Morocco). Science of the Total Environment, 573, 862-875.

[67]   Fleming, M. and Neary, V. (2004) Continuous Hydrologic Modeling Study with the Hydrologic Modeling System. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 9, 175-183.

[68]   Tramblay, Y. (2012) Modelisation Des Crues Dans Le Bassin Du Barrage Makhazine, Maroc.

[69]   Skhakhfa, I.D. and Ouerdachi, L. (2016) Hydrological Modelling of Wadiressoul Watershed, Algeria, by HEC-HMS Model. Journal of Water and Land Development, 31, 139-147.

[70]   Kowalik, T. and Walega, A. (2015) Estimation of CN Parameter for Small Agricultural Watersheds Using Asymptotic Functions. Water, 7, 939-955.