ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether the real estate industry in Guangzhou will have a bubble phenomenon with the rapid rise in housing prices. This issue has also become the focus of public concern and has great practical significance for maintaining social stability and healthy economic development. This paper adopts the research methods of single index and comprehensive index, and uses Guangzhou data from 2007 to 2017 to analyze the existence and measurement of real estate bubble. According to the empirical results, this paper further elaborates the causes of the bubble. The results indicate that: 1) The study chooses a measurement indicator and constructs a real estate bubble measurement system from the perspectives of supply and demand, investment, and credit. 2) Whichever method is used, the measurement results indicate that exists a bubble, and it shows a clear upward trend. It’s concluded that: 1) There are many causes of the real estate bubble in Guangzhou, including imbalances in supply and demand, land costs, speculation, and financial expansion, et al. 2) The measurement results of the Guangzhou real estate bubble can provide relevant evidence for the government to formulate policies or means to curb the economic bubble.
Cite this paper
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